Midlands Regional Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Midlander]

As you can see the GFS is more circular less elongated with the low for Tuesday so brings rain whereas the ICON elongates the low as it struggles to dislodge colder air (may not be correct terminology so here are pics)

Edited January 29, 2021 by AppleUK 123

[shunthebartlett92]

Just now, snowangel32 said:

More like a 5% chance maybe and thats just for a bit of falling snow. Its just to marginal mate and this time we are on the wrong side.

There’s 24 hours to go that’s a long time in a marginal situation as we all well know 

[MattStoke]

Still looks OK for some accumulations for the central West Midlands to me Just not large amounts.

[snowangel32]

Just now, shunthebartlett92 said:

There’s 24 hours to go that’s a long time in a marginal situation as we all well know 

True but this one never been confident off coming off. We shall see later on i suppose.

[Sweatyman]

21 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Warning cancelled for the Midlands.

Haha bloody useless

[shunthebartlett92]

Just now, snowangel32 said:

True but this one never been confident off coming off. We shall see later on i suppose.

Yeah absolutely, it’s unlikely as you say but I’d rather this than the low being a slider darting south to the channel. We’ve got the precipitation, it’s just how it falls 

[MattStoke]

With comical timing, the Met Office automated forecast suddenly brings back the snow risk here tomorrow and trends colder with a higher snow risk next week too

Just a shame these apps are so hopeless!

[BarometerCat]

12 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Nope this one is done. Long term looks much more promising though.

This one as in Saturday, yep agree!  Bit of a flop now, I think I meant uncertainty going forward. 

Back to Saturday, still possibly some sleet/snow I reckon. 

Central Mids maybe.. not looked at any  other models this morning yet.

If I was a betting type I would not put any money on it though.  Overall I can see a wet weekend. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

long way off but GFS 06Z for next Fri, true easterlies failed so many times

[shunthebartlett92]

My missus lives over in near Presteigne, looks amazingly poised for tomorrow’s event. Elevation should help too.

[sheikhy]

Just seen the gfs p for tomorrows snow!!cant believe how much further north the front is compared to its 12z run from yesterday!!could go down to the wire again!

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Just seen the gfs p for tomorrows snow!!cant believe how much further north the front is compared to its 12z run from yesterday!!could go down to the wire again!

Any charts? I can’t view that model on my phone or either of my laptops for some reason  

[Gord]

The warning area is just for where there’s high ground now it seems.

There will be wintriness of some sort around here I’m sure, just not anything disruptive.

Will still be interesting, just tempered by the fact we’ve already had 2 significant snowfalls this winter, so for us lucky ones....it’s all a bit ‘meh’ I suppose.

Last winter, we’d been all over it at this point in pure desperation, the adjusted warning would have just made us more determined!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Any charts? I can’t view that model on my phone or either of my laptops for some reason  

Yesterday had it south and west of brummy!!!

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Yesterday had it south and west of brummy!!!

Another one that has it right on my doorstep Radar watch it is! Not expecting much if anything though.

Looking like the coldest conditions of the winter so far from late next week, after maybe some transient snow mid week. Often that actually reduces the snow risk for Stoke.

[BarometerCat]

Warnings now for Monday-Weds.  Quite a large area...interesting..

[sheikhy]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Another one that has it right on my doorstep Radar watch it is! Not expecting much if anything though.

Looking like the coldest conditions of the winter so far from late next week, after maybe some transient snow mid week. Often that actually reduces the snow risk for Stoke.

Met warning out for next week

[MattStoke]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Met warning out for next week

Yeah. Don’t worry, people. The warning hasn’t been cancelled. It’s just been moved back a few days

[sheikhy]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Yeah. Don’t worry, people. The warning hasn’t been cancelled. It’s just been moved back a few days

Looking good man!sounds like what the ecm is showing

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, B-C said:

Warnings now for Monday-Weds.  Quite a large area...interesting..

That is interesting, as GFS shows 10 degrees for Tue/Wed, very early to issue a warning? as it was yesterday for tomorrow

[RobR]

Far too early to issue a blanket warning, really are getting pathetic with these warnings now. No one listens because they issue so many warnings for 'weather'.

[BarometerCat]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

That is interesting, as GFS shows 10 degrees for Tue/Wed, very early to issue a warning? as it was yesterday for tomorrow

"Snow, with a risk of widespread ice, is likely to push slowly northeast from late Monday, bringing difficult travel conditions."   From Monday to Wednesday?  

Think this will probably be amended nearer the time!  

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, B-C said:

"Snow, with a risk of widespread ice, is likely to push slowly northeast from late Monday, bringing difficult travel conditions."   From Monday to Wednesday?  

Think this will probably be amended nearer the time!  

Does seem like a rather long time for a snow to rain/freezing rain event that will only produce a few cm of snow. Must be uncertainty over the timing as well as the main areas at risk.

[snowangel32]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

That is interesting, as GFS shows 10 degrees for Tue/Wed, very early to issue a warning? as it was yesterday for tomorrow

Agree they issue these warnings way to early as this weekend has shown. 24 hours to go should be when they issue the warnings especially when the models don't agree.

[beefy201]

12 minutes ago, B-C said:

Warnings now for Monday-Weds.  Quite a large area...interesting..

Shocking, lazy, work by the Met office again