Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Biggin]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

Crazy how such small differences makes such a change by d8:

Guess which is the 12z?

Blimey what a difference. Hopefully a Thames Streamer  to add to that,,,

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

96hrs chart for ECM is very borderline indeed.

Looks like its heading towards a GEM 12z solution.

FI at the moment cannot be any further out than 96hrs, it may even be closer to 72hrs at the moment based on quite the wide range of solutions on offer even at that timeframe.

 

Really? Doesn’t look so not developing low.

[Snowman.]

UKMO and ECM while similar in our locale, out by southern greenland there is differences.

  

UKMO keeps the lows off the ESB and Greenland closer together where as the ECM keeps them further appart, may lead to big changes later on down the line.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Snowman.

[kold weather]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Really? Doesn’t look so not developing low.

There really isn't a huge amount of difference between GEM/UKMO/ECM at 96hrs to be fair.

The broad pattern is similar though on all three, and both UKMO/GEM are borderline. They both do get cold down but it wouldn't take much for the south in particular to miss out on both of those solutions.

 

[Snowman.]

120 its close still different however.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Snowman.

[Mike Poole]

T120:

ECM could be dodgy for the south, still a fair bit north of the UKMO.

[Daniel*]

Bit messy but next frame should look good.

[kold weather]

Setting up for a slider like GEM on the 12z ECM at 120hrs, looks good for northern part of the country...

Not going to get a easterly of any note out of that for the southern half of the country, but still cold/snow options on the table even there BUT the cold air may not even make it that far south before that low comes in.

Close call.

[That ECM]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

T120:

ECM could be dodgy for the south, still a fair bit north of the UKMO.

Good for Cornwall

[Howie]

Surely something has to give now!? This low pressure is giving me a headache 

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

UKMO and ECM while similar in our locale, out by southern greenland there is differences.

  

UKMO keeps the lows off the ESB and Greenland closer together where as the ECM keeps them further appart, may lead to big changes later on down the line.

Very apparent here the differences now. ECM with the two lows and UKMO with the phase.

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Good for Cornwall

Under slack air with 850s - 5 anything that falls should be snow 

[chionomaniac]

I sighed relief when I saw the ecm T+120, because I expect the next frame to show an easterly across most of the country, with Iberian low deepening and moving NE

[Continental Climate]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

T120:

ECM could be dodgy for the south, still a fair bit north of the UKMO.

The final position of that low probably won't be nailed until Wednesday 0Z 

[steveinsussex]

Was the gfs a cold outlier?

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Setting up for a slider like GEM on the 12z ECM at 120hrs, looks good for northern part of the country...

Not going to get a easterly of any note out of that for the southern half of the country, but still cold/snow options on the table even there BUT the cold air may not even make it that far south before that low comes in.

Close call.

I’d say you’re jumping the gun give it a chance.

[jamesgold]

Just now, steveinsussex said:

Was the gfs a cold outlier?

Outlier no, but one of the coldest solutions 

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, steveinsussex said:

Was the gfs a cold outlier?

No.

[Arrows1986]

To be fair its going to get cold and snow.  Not sure if we will be getting a foot of snow but a wintry spell on the cards is a plus. Better than a kick in the teeth 

 

When it looks good people seem to want more more more lol the beeb are onboard now which is a good sign.  This week will be very interesting as to how itll evolve

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Very apparent here the differences now. ECM with the two lows and UKMO with the phase.

 

Its closer to the 12z GEM but there are differences there as well.

I'm far from convinced the cold will make it into the south on this run and this run may well setup a decent snow event for the north, with maybe some front edge stuff further south if the cold air flanking round that low is cold enough.

Still, slider on the menu on this ECM still, better than nothing for sure.

[ICE COLD]

T144 is fine

Edited February 1, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Snowman.]

ECM!!!! 144!!!!

Ahhhhh

[weirpig]

Easterly in at 144hrs     all fun and games

[Mike Poole]

T144:

GFS snowfest we know, UKMO decent, ECM sides with UKMO!! Brown trousers there for a mo but it is all good

[Daniel*]

Thought it would be good