Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some hefty showers going up to the south of Lincoln at the moment.  They're moving so slowly, the question is, will they reach here before they dissipate due to declining solar heating and, if they do, will they be electrified?  Not much thundery activity currently showing.  I can see those TCu/Cb cells to the south.

[Zak M]

Sferics near Peterborough and Newmarket now.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking at the last two hours of Netweather radar it looks like on current trajectories they might reach here at around 8pm.  However, individual cells are coming and going.

Interestingly the latest GFS run has upped the thunderstorm potential for here on Sunday 1800Z.  If that came off, it would mean getting thunderstorms here coinciding with the start of three England games in a row!

Edited July 9, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[The PIT]

A few spots of rain here local  forecast has hail for nine o'clock well that won't happen.

[Guest]

Heavy skies here - barely a breath of wind. Radar showing showers growing in coverage just a few miles to the south. Maybe I won't have to water the garden this evening!

[Zak M]

Just seen a funnel cloud to my NE! It was quite far away so my camera didn't pick it unfortunately.

Now look at this - a double funnel near Cambridge:

 

[The PIT]

Sadly the stuff to the south east is weakening as it comes north west. However places further east of us may get something.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Flash flooding in Peterborough confirmed. Wouldn’t have ruled out another funnel cloud in there either! Quite astonishing how many there have been of late. 

[Zak M]

 

38 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Just seen a funnel cloud to my NE! It was quite far away so my camera didn't pick it unfortunately.

 

  

Editing always does the trick! The funnel is visible to the left of the tree.

[weatherobsuk]

I had a quick look at the Radar & XCWeather which shows a convergence forming over the Peak District in relation to the current showers going on, and on the off-chance headed up to my usual vantage place which overlooks the Goyt and Kinder Scout to see what might have been a brief funnel (the skeptic in me is saying it was scud) alongside a bit of convective rotation overhead. It's all mid-level based around here which makes spotting these things a little easier.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Surprisingly no thunder, but some amazing cloud formations approached from the south over Lincoln over the past hour.

[Jamie M]

Touchdown from one of the funnels in Cambridgeshire it seems.

[Robbie Garrett]

This weather is frustrating.  Ended up on the edge of one of those cells, was pretty turbulent.    Glad we entered a smaller cell rather than the big one on our left...  

(On Autopilot at top of cruise)

 

 

[Pursuer of Storms]

3 hours ago, Zak M said:

Just seen a funnel cloud to my NE! It was quite far away so my camera didn't pick it unfortunately.

Hmm, what time was this Zak? I got something that looked quite similar to your image at around 7.40pm as the cell moved north away from Milton Keynes. Formed very quickly and did appear to be rotating but didn't last long.  

Edited July 9, 2021 by Pursuer of Storms

[Zak M]

15 minutes ago, Pursuer of Storms said:

Hmm, what time was this Zak? I got something that looked quite similar to your image at around 7.40pm as the cell moved north away from Milton Keynes. Formed very quickly and did appear to be rotating but didn't last long.  

It was around 6:30 PM. I went back upstairs from having dinner and saw it forming. It dissipated two minutes later.

Great shots, by the way! There seem to have been a ton of funnels today.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Zak M

[Allseasons-Si]

 

[Allseasons-Si]

More funnel clouds it is then tomorrow....

this just issued

-------------------------------------

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 10 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 11 Jul 2021

ISSUED 21:57 UTC Fri 09 Jul 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Weak upper low will drift eastwards across southern Britain on Saturday, followed by another disrupting upper trough approaching western Ireland later on Saturday night. In a broad sense, another fairly slack pressure pattern dominates across the UK/Ireland, and so yet another day of daytime-driven showers is expected but with subtle shifts in the upper and surface pattern resulting in the focus shifting to more northern and western areas compared with recent days. Showery outbreaks of rain may intensify over northern England and the north Midlands on Saturday morning as the remnants of overnight activity become engaged by the PVA lobe sliding east across southern Britain. Consequently there is a low risk of a few lightning strikes even during the morning associated with this showery rain. 

By the afternoon the focus shifts to more typical scattered showers driven by diurnal heating of a moist airmass (dewpoints 14-16C), orographic forcing and low-level convergence. Slight cooling in the mid-levels will have occurred relative to Friday, and this suggests convection may be a little deeper - at least for a time, as gradual warming is expected from the west during the afternoon and evening. However, for the most part convection will tend to be restricted to the lowest ~5km with generally light easterly winds throughout the cloud-bearing layer suggesting weak shear and pulse-type mode. However, there may be an increase in directional shear across the Midlands and northern England later in the afternoon, which could perhaps aid cell longevity slightly. Either way, numerous heavy showers are likely to develop and their slow-moving nature will bring the risk of localised flash flooding. The extent of lightning activity is questionable for the reasons already mentioned, but as was the case on previous days the slack pattern with multiple convergence zones could aid in the development of several funnel clouds.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[Chris.R]

What a boring week up here it has been. Looking good tomorrow though and possibly Monday morning before wind veers.

[The PIT]

Like a sauna out there at the moment needs the sun out to get the temps up. If that happens chances are good I think.

[BrickFielder]

Mid to Upper lapse rates limiting instability as there is slightly warmer air aloft, so instability is a bit meagre (limits storm creation).  Interesting that low level winds direction is in direct contrast to the mid to upper steerage flow (Spout risk higher).  Temperatures and low level wind convergence likely to be the trigger for convection.  Storms over north midlands likely to trundle southwards.

 

[wimblettben]

Annoying going by the forecasts as yesterday they had most of the showers and storms for more western areas but this morning looks like they have moved them further east or northeast again.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Like a sauna out there at the moment needs the sun out to get the temps up. If that happens chances are good I think.

Already some small downpours brewing up. Like you say it's very oppressive out there.

[Rush2019]

Small funnel south east of Macc.  It's length had decreased somewhat by the time I grabbed my phone to photo it.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

That Darlington funnel was very impressive. Also 67mm of rain in a couple of hours in Peterborough. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Dan's updated/upgraded the chance to SLT now...

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 10 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 11 Jul 2021

ISSUED 07:02 UTC Sat 10 Jul 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Weak upper low will drift eastwards across southern Britain on Saturday, followed by another disrupting upper trough approaching western Ireland later on Saturday night. In a broad sense, another fairly slack pressure pattern dominates across the UK/Ireland, and so yet another day of daytime-driven showers is expected but with subtle shifts in the upper and surface pattern resulting in the focus shifting to more northern and western areas compared with recent days. Showery outbreaks of rain may intensify over northern England and the north Midlands on Saturday morning as the remnants of overnight activity become engaged by the PVA lobe sliding east across southern Britain. Consequently there is a low risk of a few lightning strikes even during the morning associated with this showery rain. 

By the afternoon the focus shifts to more typical scattered showers driven by diurnal heating of a moist airmass (dewpoints 14-16C), orographic forcing and low-level convergence. Slight cooling in the mid-levels will have occurred relative to Friday, and this suggests convection may be a little deeper - at least for a time, as gradual warming is expected from the west during the afternoon and evening. However, for the most part convection will tend to be restricted to the lowest ~5km with generally light easterly winds throughout the cloud-bearing layer suggesting weak shear and pulse-type mode. However, there may be an increase in directional shear across the Midlands and northern England later in the afternoon, which could perhaps aid cell longevity slightly. Either way, numerous heavy showers are likely to develop and their slow-moving nature will bring the risk of localised flash flooding. The extent of lightning activity is questionable for the reasons already mentioned, but as was the case on previous days the slack pattern with multiple convergence zones could aid in the development of several funnel clouds.

 

A tentative low-end SLGT has been introduced where a few lightning strikes are considered slightly more likely, although the odd one is also possible over Cumbria and SE Scotland, for example.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.