2023 predictions

[Summer8906]

Not sure if it's a bit early for this but thought I'd start it now, as if it's left until the end of the year the weather for early January will already be apparent. At the moment it's still well into FI.

So here's my guess. Not scientific, just based on gut feeling with a bit of "what hasn't it done for a while?" thrown in.

I expect a much more average year than 2022, with cold weather at times, but nonetheless with the typical features of the current climate thrown in.

So:

January, mostly mild and wet in the south. Colder in the north. Perhaps shades of January 1984. In the south, the wet more notable than the mild, as cold air in the north will temporarily extend south at times. Late in the month, becoming much drier, colder, and anticyclonic. In the south, mild and very wet overall, though temporary inbreaks of cold air mean sunshine totals not so bad.

February: it's been a while (2019) since the last dry one. So I'd expect one of those very dry and anticyclonic Februaries. Cold and frosty at first (perhaps chance of snow) becoming much milder. End of month, a cold northerly outbreak with snow showers. Slightly milder and much drier than average overall.

March: a reverse of the recent pattern of unsettled start, fine end. First half of month dry, sunny but on the chilly side for early spring. Jetstream then extends southwards with a changeable and rather windy second half. Very mild as the changeable weather takes over, then rather cool with W/NW winds. Average temps, rainfall and sunshine overall.

April: rather more changeable than of late, but still not a bad month. Northwesterlies with "April showers" and temps slightly below average at first, before a potent northerly for Easter. Polar low gives a white Easter even to the south. Low then clears away and an anticyclonic spell begins, with a keen NE-ly and sharp frosts at first, gradually warming out. Then low pressure moves up from France giving a warm but changeable spell later in the month, with showers. Temps in high teens, or even low 20s where the sun comes out. Right at the end of the month, a warm blast from Spain sends temps up to 27C.

May: overall rather dry and sunny, though not notably so. Glorious May Day with 28C maxima, then the earliest (?) occurrence on record of 30C on May 2nd. Wind then backs E-ly and the following week is sunny but cooler with temps around 20, including the Coronation day. Mid month cool and changeable. Becoming warmer again towards the end, and a potent blast from the south produces the May record (?) of 35C on the last day of the month. Thundery breakdown the following evening.

June: we've had quite a run of relatively disappointing Junes, and it's been a while since the last really sunny one (June 2018 was very dry, but often cloudy until the 20th). So, in a frivolous prediction, June 2023 will be the sunniest June, and sunniest month of any name, on record. Thunderstorms to start the month then a couple of cool and cloudy days as the low clears away, but then almost continuously sunny and anticyclonic. Thundery spell again mid month. Highest temps around 32C on the Glastonbury weekend before something of a cooldown,though still with sunny weather, at the end of the month.

July: I think we'd be very lucky to have two fine summers on the trot so sadly I'd expect July to be a bit of a let-down. Sunny first two days, then a change to unsettled and unseasonably cool weather with a potent NW-ly for about a week producing uncommonly cool night minima for summer. Thereafter, about two weeks of more typical SW-ly fare with frequent lows crossing the south, a fair amount of rain, cool maxima but warm night minima. Notable heatwave from the 21st to the 30th with temps persistently above 28C in the south, peaking at 36C on the 30th (the year's highest maximum) before a thundery breakdown at the end. So overall wet and rather cloudy, but warmer than average due to warm nights for the final three weeks and the late heatwave.

August: Again I'd expect August to return to dull, changeable type. First week or so rather cyclonic but also warm with lows over Biscay or west of Ireland, with 23-25 typical. Then, a short but potent heat spike around the 10th, producing 34C as a max for one day before a rapid thundery breakdown producing severe storms. Thereafter, a series of lows crossing the south, at first slack (but still producing regular torrential downpours) but gradually winding up from around the 20th, with the first taste of autumn. Two named storms in August, the "A" storm coming just before the Bank Holiday weekend and the "B" storm washing out the Bank Holiday weekend itself.

Thereafter a rapid rise of pressure and rapid improvement on the 29th.... the Tuesday following the Bank Holiday. Last three days of the month fine and sunny.

September: again a reversion to type in the sense that the first half of the month will be typically settled, sunny and fine. Gradually becoming more changeable later, with the jetstream moving south, so dry and cloudy third week then rather unsettled end to the month.

October: we've now had a run of four wet Octobers so maybe this will be the year it'll change. So a notably dry October and also on the cool side overall - another change to recent years. Some early frosts at the start of the month, then briefly warm with low-20s temps in the second week, a brief changeable spell then a sunny and frosty spell towards the end. As tends to happen though, the very end of the month is then more changeable and, as it always seems to, it rains at Halloween.

November: the recent tendency has been mild, so how about a cold one next year? Changeable start, but then frequent spells of frosty and unseasonably sunny weather, separated by brief mild wet interludes. Cold at end.

December: the first two days feature severe night frosts and sunny days, leading to speculation history might repeat itself from a year earlier. However that is all swept away by a jetstream on speed and more typical December weather of mild, wet and very dull dominates most of the rest of the month, except a brief chilly, foggy spell a week before Christmas. Christmas Day about 5-10C warmer than Easter.

 

 

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

January: Cold and frosty with widespread snow early on, but gradually turning milder from around mid month onwards. A particularly unsettled period around the 20th including a named storm.

February: Predominently mild and unsettled with many dull days leading to below average sunshine levels for the month. Pretty much a repeat of Feb 2020.

March: Unsettled theme continues into March up until the second week. Hereon it turns colder in all regions and chances of snow increases - we see the coldest March day since 2018 at some point around mid month. Slowly turning milder again after this with a mix of sunshine and showers lasting to month's end.

April: After three consecutive Aprils seeing below or even well below average rainfall, this one breaks that trend and ends up being our wettest April since 2012. It will also be cooler than average with little to no warmth, but will feel pleasant when the sun is out.

May: The cool and unsettled theme continues for a little while before a big change takes place. It becomes much warmer and more settled around the 10th with temps widely reaching the early to mid 20s and unbroken sunshine for many areas. From around mid month onwards temps are back to the seasonal average but with some warm days scattered around here and there.

June: Warm and sunny for the first few days but turning increasingly unsettled after that (kind of like June 2016), though temps will be around the seasonal average if not slightly above. Does turn settled again at month's end and very warm with temp widely reaching the mid to late 20s.

July: A fairly mixed month with a good mix of warm sunny days and cooler and wetter interludes. Becomes hot around the time the summer holidays start with temps widely reaching the early to possibly mid 30s in London and nearby areas, so nothing really exceptional. This is followed by thunderstorms in the closing days of the month, but as always not everybody gets one.

August: Sunny and pleasant during the first half with temps close to average with some warmer interludes here and there, but turns increasingly unsettled a little later on with some localised flooding in places. Turns very warm or even hot around the 20th with temps reaching the low 30s for a few days before turning cooler and unsettled again.

September: The cooler and unsettled theme continues into the first few days of Sept before settling down after around the first week. Hereon it will turn increasingly warm with temps in the mid to late 20s for most areas. This will last up to around mid month when temps revert back or close to the seasonal average for the remainder of the month with a mix of sunshine and showers and some cool nights later on.

October: Mild for much of the time but also wet with very short-lived dry periods. Turns increasingly stormy later on bringing us our first named storm of the season. 

November: The coldest November since 2010 with very short-lived milder interludes. It will be sunny though so needless to say there wil be some cold nights, though anticyclonic glooms takes over at times. The closing days of the month will be milder and more unsettled.

December: Mild and wet mostly, but with some colder periods here and there. Sunshine below average generally, but will make an appearance at times.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Met.]

All seasons: mildest on record. 

(Wishful thinking)

[LetItSnow!]

Already did this thread about a month ago-ish. Do Mods want to combine them into one so there ain’t a duplicate please?

[kold weather]

Not going to guess too much but another above average year temperature wise (61-90) looks like a highly realistic bet.

Are we reaching the point that below average 61-90 years just aren't realistic anymore? I know 2010 was well below that benchmark but it's Been hard going recently to even get a month below, yet alone whole seasons/years.

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Already did this thread about a month ago-ish. Do Mods want to combine them into one so there ain’t a duplicate please?

Ah right, sorry, must have missed that one.