Arctic sea Ice Discussion 2023

[Geordiesnow]

20 hours ago, Don said:

So an extended melt season expected then?  Could we be looking at early October before the re-freeze starts this year?  Not sure what the current latest minimum date is?

I don't think it will be the latest minimum on record( the latest was in 1995 on the 30th September) but maybe like Grey Wolf says, don't expect any rapid rises early on if these temperatures are refusing to drop or we constantly get winds compacting the ice pack.

As it happens, if the weather does end up playing ball, refreeze could be fast on the Siberian side as SSTS are nothing too remarkable(compared to 2020 for example) but as we see more and more during early to mid September, the PV is struggling to develop so the cold is struggling to form hence we are still seeing area losses which is now officially at least 3rd lowest minimum on record which is remarkable really.

It does look like things are going to become more slacker and the cold trying to develop but only really on the Atlantic side and over the CAB, still looking way above average on the Pacific side.

[Methuselah]

An interesting article: 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

As the NSIDC measure for 'Ice Area' drops into "2nd Lowest for date" one has to wonder just how 'LOW' "Area" can go?......

Should re-freeze be 'delayed/slow' this year, due to Planetary/Oceanic heat (combined with a growing 'Nino'?), we could see 'Arctic Ice area' at the number '1' Lowest by Mid-October.

A 'Poor' re-freeze (like we've just seen over the 'Southern Winter'?) will leave the ice in pooe shape to face a 'Nino' (& the rest!!!) Summer in 24'....B.O.E. might be the result with the MASSIVE climate hit such would cause.....

Interesting tomes eh?

Edited September 15, 2023 by Gray-Wolf

[Geordiesnow]

9 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

As the NSIDC measure for 'Ice Area' drops into "2nd Lowest for date" one has to wonder just how 'LOW' "Area" can go?......

Should re-freeze be 'delayed/slow' this year, due to Planetary/Oceanic heat (combined with a growing 'Nino'?), we could see 'Arctic Ice area' at the number '1' Lowest by Mid-October.

A 'Poor' re-freeze (like we've just seen over the 'Southern Winter'?) will leave the ice in pooe shape to face a 'Nino' (& the rest!!!) Summer in 24'....B.O.E. might be the result with the MASSIVE climate hit such would cause.....

Interesting tomes eh?

I think the fact on the bremen ice chart we got low concentration at high latitudes just tells you, it is NOT cold up there at all and if anything, the situation does not look like improving at all. 

Looking at worldview, tells it's own story really, lots of cloud, the ice is hardly white(compared to the last couple of years) and well this could be a game changer because whilst extent is not the lowest I don't think I've seen the ice at this stage in September looking as poor as this. 2020 was slow but the main reason why extent was so low then was because of the lack of Atlantic ice. I actually thought refreeze could be fairly quick this year across the Siberian arctic but the fact the PV is so weak(850 temperatures are just not dropping anywhere near enough), I'm not so sure now.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well our 'Summer weather (in the N.H.?) appeared to be a continuation of what the South saw over their Summer so will the S.H. 'Winter' also be a guide for what we ought to expect over our Winter?

If we do have a slow/interrupted 're-freeze' then I think we need worry about what the Nino Summer of 24', & the melt season it will influence, will bring us?

I think it's enough to say it's been a bonkers 6 months across both Land & Ocean in our Hemisphere & that it is doubly difficult to imagine just 'What' the culmination of it all will be

[Geordiesnow]

I just keep looking at the output charts GW and can't help but be baffled, concerned and quite saddened at what we are seeing here. 

We are just not cooling down at all, the models want to cool down but the reality is, we are not and it's all very very slow. I just can't see where any initial refreeze is coming from, even temperatures above the icepack are so poor for the time of year. Whilst SSTS over the Arctic are nothing too exceptional(apart from the Kara) we all know about the Atlantic SSTS and is that now playing a role at just how above average we are globally.

It's interesting but concerning. Btw the cold lovers on here probably can kiss goodbye to a cold winter if this continues, if we can't get the PV forming over the poles properly then everything will be diluted even come wintertime. 

[stewfox]

No debate over the Artic this winter. Guess as no surprises.