Arctic sea Ice Discussion 2023

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

IIRC 2012 was also a slow starter coming from quite a high final max ice extent? (after the 'Ice Maker' turned on across the Bering Straight & flooded Bering with late season ice?)

It has been a while since we last saw a 'step down' in ice area/extent/volume has it not?

With Fram exporting quite well there must be an amount of 'late season' ice above Greenland by now?

I'm also interested to see how the potential Nino will impact the Basin esp. over the winter 23/24?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Certainly looks a much better (obviously using that term loosely in the bigger context) April than lots of recent years with this graph 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Been watching in brief  - this sea ice retreat season. As it is too wet to venture outside into the garden,  I thought I'd add my two penny worth..

The recent years spring melt is unusual in terms of the two decades 2000 and 2010, but it does seem to be following  a pattern for the years since 2020.

Today is the first day that JAXA has recorded a near average drop in sea ice extent.  (matched by Masie)

For the last week the sea ice has actually gained in extent, and it has consistently been slower to melt than average. Figures on the ASIF show around a 25% slower than usual drop, since the sea ice maximum.

I am including graphs/data  from the Artic Sea Ice forum as not just a snapshot from today, but showing ongoing trends .  (with thanks)...

                     

 

These show without doubt that at this stage of the melting season  (with the outer areas having completed their initial melt) ,that the Arctic Basin itself is holding up very strongly. 

All the volume and ice thickness graphs (one example below) show that the ice at the bottom has only just started (on time) to melt, as at the the end of April.

               

The extent graph (Masie above  - and area graphs show the same effect) show that nearly all the ice in the outer regions have indeed melted. Exception is Hudson Bay where the melt is only just starting), and hence that the difficult to melt ice is within the Arctic Basin. The ice edge is even still being shown at Bear Isle -  250miles south of Svalbard.

As seen from the ASIF data above, the pattern has seen the figures of 2020-2021, 2021-2022, and 2022-2023 years,  show a continued increase (Year upon Year) from the 7th lowest in the first year through the 13th lowest last year, to the current 16th lowest this year.   Furthermore the numbers are now challenging not only the best 21st century figures, but a date in the 20th century (1989).

So what is causing this? Why should springtime be showing up this way? Could it be higher temperatures inducing more cloud?

It should not be a straight forward climate change event (CO2 induced), as that would lead to continually higher temperatures in the Arctic (and its associated increased ice melt) .... 

To attempt a possible explanation I have shown below the last 4 years of the DMI recorded temperatures for above 80 degrees latitude   (Uses ECM 2M data).

 

           (from recent to eldest, and 2020 is typical of the previous 10 years )

These clearly show that for the Arctic Basin, that during the spring melt season, that the temperature has remained consistently at or below the average of the mean (mean comparison for the years 1958 to 2002), Whereas previously they had been rising to above average rates.

Why could this be,  in a warming world?

Well to me it would seem to be connected to the triple La NIna, which has been occurring over exactly the same 3 year period.

Why this should  show up during the early season melt period is unexplained. But it is factual, and based upon the actual data. The  last few years have also seen minimum sea ice halt its continued decline  of the previous 15 years (or more). It is the first time this has happened in the previous  50 years. Data at end of April.

As G Wolf points out this has all been happening (this year) whilst ice has been streaming out of Fram.

It could be a temporary phenomena, We are about to find out, in the next few years.

Will this lead to a faster melt during the summer? Will the weather stay kind to the Arctic ice  (not like 2012)?  I have no idea, but it is becoming apparent that some of the 'other' features of our climate need to be taken seriously,  and are not all small in comparison to the CO2 effect, and can lead to possibly  temporary changes.  

The above reported  effect must suggest that many different climate features (Hadley cell developments. the weather, as well as ENSO,   (possibly ANO?), and many others (clouds, the solar status, etc)  will all have to be taken into account when predicting the outcome for the Arctic Basin.

Even if some are very small they will all change the eventual outcome.

 

MIA

Edited May 8, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[matty40s]

It may be that the water vapour emitted to the stratosphere in the eruption of Hunga Tonga has had different effects to what was expected. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 hours ago, matty40s said:

It may be that the water vapour emitted to the stratosphere in the eruption of Hunga Tonga has had different effects to what was expected. 

I'm not sure of the effects from it but still a bunch of it in the strat, I wonder if the dual strat warmings during winter possibly caused the vapour to descend into the troposphere?

 

[The PIT]

Yeh the effects of that water vapour could be interesting this coming summer.

[matty40s]

Not good news...

 

[Don]

On 20/05/2023 at 12:31, matty40s said:

Not good news...

Rarely is these days when it comes to the climate, not that it makes it any better!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 20/05/2023 at 12:31, matty40s said:

Not good news...

 

Arctic still a good distance below average 

 

 

That's the Atlantic and the warmest zone is mostly concentrated across the MDR zone 

interesting running close to 2010 from April 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Meanwhile back in the arctic...

Last two and a half weeks has seen a direct copy of last years early melt season.

Perhaps a little more melt has occurred in the peripheral areas, but the central ocean  seems to have retained its icy grip, with the ECM seemingly below average (about 1.5C as portrayed by the DMI above  80 degrees graph below), whilst Climate Reanalyser (GFS data) continues to show record breaking temps   (about 1.5C above average)......

 DMI this year and last...

 

         (last year) 

Extent remains well above the 2010 average  (about 250,000Km2) which ties in with a 20% below average melt rate so far recorded by Jaxa and Masie , whilst area has recently achieved 17th position in the last 20 years, just today. 

                     

I really must question the figures being  created by Climate Reanalyser (and GFS) after the change it made back in last year.

So this far into the season, the Arctic ice seems to be holding up well.

Unfortunately the same cannot be said for the Antarctic - where GFS (CR) has had temps way below average, whilst ice figures are the worst ever recorded....

Just noticed that today CR has just sent the Antarctic temp above average for the first time for 3 weeks.

Oh well nothing is simple...

MIA

Edited May 25, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Geordiesnow]

I have to admit I am too slightly dubious of the climate reanalyzer average temperatures since the upgrade, always seem to show a higher figure despite at times seemingly there's been a fair amount of below average temperatures around the basin. All that said there is no disputing places like the Kara Sea and Hudson Bay have been really warm so far and the affects on the ice in these areas has been noteworthy. 

The only good news for the Kara is the wind direction does favour compaction so we may sees an more resilient area of ice hanging on near the islands like we saw in 2021. 

Overall though, the weather so far has been uneventful and even quite chilly for the time of year in certain spots. Do hope the low pressure systems weaken somewhat though otherwise we may see quite alot of dispersion developing again like we saw last year. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

I see it is 5weeks since a last update on here.

So  since I have been on hols for 2 of those decided I would do one, together with  a comment on the worlds highest daily temperatures, as regarded as headline news by the BBC and Wahingtom Post  following an interview with  a climate researcher,

In the Arctic, Masie extents are still tracking last years numbers very closely .   Both numbers are still way in excess of the average for the years 2010 - 20, and following 2 years of increases are starting to show trend increases.  ( Graph 2 for Area ) - though this may be changed by the onset of El Nino

        

The reason for these high ice levels is no doubt  connected with the ongoing 3 years La Nina, but quite how is uncertain though slack pressure over the basin is helpful for ice retention in springtime. in.

Temperatures in the Arctic (according to the DMI) have not been above average since early April and we are now close to when the ambient temp is about to fall again...   (1.5 months)

 

As for Climate Reanalyser further evidence has occured  to enable doubt to be  made about its accuracy since the last upgrade 18 months ago.

For the last 4 months it has reported Arctic temperatures to be between 0.5C and 4.0zc above the averages 1970 to 2000 it uses.  Never once has it been negative.

Climate Reanalyser (if one remembers) has been responsible for the claims of world record temperatures recently.

This it was claimed was caused by excess warmth worldwide, but mainly driven by higher temperatures in  Antarctica..

I checked todays Reanaalyser for the area with the following data -

   and   with an temp anomaly for Antarctica of +1.60C against long term values   !!!.

A more detailed graphic for the Antarctic is given below -

  

Meanwhile, a short while ago last week,  it was showing an average value anomaly  of 4.3C for Antarctica.

I looks very odd to me as other reporters (ECMWF,  etc) were/are not showing anything so exceptional.

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Optimus Prime]

Interesting chart concerning the arctic. Appears to be either large pools of surface water appearing above the icecap going by those anomalies or more likely the ice is actually fragmenting and entirely melting, exposing ocean water in areas that wouldn't normally be there. It may also be due to enhancements in the way the model expresses data, as there has been an update recently. But given the astonishing heat content of the NH oceans, I doubt it's a data issue. 

Compared to the end of the melt season (September) for some previous years (1991 - 2020 baseline)

2022

2012

2002

1992

1982

1972

1962

This year has to be the turning point towards an ice free summer arctic ? before 2030...

[Don]

22 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:

This year has to be the turning point towards an ice free summer arctic ? before 2030...

I was of the understanding the Arctic sea ice was doing relatively well this year?

[Gray-Wolf]

10 hours ago, Don said:

I was of the understanding the Arctic sea ice was doing relatively well this year?

With all the heat in the Oceans, I think we may see ice struggling to reform come Autumn/Winter (as we see around Antarctica currently?) & so , though currently we seem to be doing well in the rankings, we will see ice cover in unknown territories by October?

I wouldn't even like to call when we will see ice min this year?

But I would put Money on us being number 1 in low ice standings by December?

Edited August 5, 2023 by Gray-Wolf

[Don]

5 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

With all the heat in the Oceans, I think we may see ice struggling to reform come Autumn/Winter (as we see around Antarctica currently?) & so , though currently we seem to be doing well in the rankings, we will see ice cover in unknown territories by October?

I wouldn't even like to call when we will see ice min this year?

But I would put Money on us being number 1 in low ice standings by December?

That's a very good point GW and it will be very interesting to see how the re-freeze season will fair in view of the heat in the oceans, particularly the North Atlantic.

[richie3846]

On 04/08/2023 at 00:38, Optimus Prime said:

Interesting chart concerning the arctic. Appears to be either large pools of surface water appearing above the icecap going by those anomalies or more likely the ice is actually fragmenting and entirely melting, exposing ocean water in areas that wouldn't normally be there. It may also be due to enhancements in the way the model expresses data, as there has been an update recently. But given the astonishing heat content of the NH oceans, I doubt it's a data issue. 

Compared to the end of the melt season (September) for some previous years (1991 - 2020 baseline)

2022

2012

2002

1992

1982

1972

1962

This year has to be the turning point towards an ice free summer arctic ? before 2030...

They were saying this 10 years ago and it never happened 

[richie3846]

6 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

With all the heat in the Oceans, I think we may see ice struggling to reform come Autumn/Winter (as we see around Antarctica currently?) & so , though currently we seem to be doing well in the rankings, we will see ice cover in unknown territories by October?

I wouldn't even like to call when we will see ice min this year?

But I would put Money on us being number 1 in low ice standings by December?

On 13/07/2023 at 21:32, Midlands Ice Age said:

I see it is 5weeks since a last update on here.

So  since I have been on hols for 2 of those decided I would do one, together with  a comment on the worlds highest daily temperatures, as regarded as headline news by the BBC and Wahingtom Post  following an interview with  a climate researcher,

In the Arctic, Masie extents are still tracking last years numbers very closely .   Both numbers are still way in excess of the average for the years 2010 - 20, and following 2 years of increases are starting to show trend increases.  ( Graph 2 for Area ) - though this may be changed by the onset of El Nino

        

The reason for these high ice levels is no doubt  connected with the ongoing 3 years La Nina, but quite how is uncertain though slack pressure over the basin is helpful for ice retention in springtime. in.

Temperatures in the Arctic (according to the DMI) have not been above average since early April and we are now close to when the ambient temp is about to fall again...   (1.5 months)

 

As for Climate Reanalyser further evidence has occured  to enable doubt to be  made about its accuracy since the last upgrade 18 months ago.

For the last 4 months it has reported Arctic temperatures to be between 0.5C and 4.0zc above the averages 1970 to 2000 it uses.  Never once has it been negative.

Climate Reanalyser (if one remembers) has been responsible for the claims of world record temperatures recently.

This it was claimed was caused by excess warmth worldwide, but mainly driven by higher temperatures in  Antarctica..

I checked todays Reanaalyser for the area with the following data -

   and   with an temp anomaly for Antarctica of +1.60C against long term values   !!!.

A more detailed graphic for the Antarctic is given below -

  

Meanwhile, a short while ago last week,  it was showing an average value anomaly  of 4.3C for Antarctica.

I looks very odd to me as other reporters (ECMWF,  etc) were/are not showing anything so exceptional.

 

Can you please clarify in simple terms. Are you saying the recent claims regarding record global temperatures, may not be accurate?

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just in time(!)  I am back from a week taking the grandchildren to a local theme park, and I see my 'report' are being questioned in here over the last 2 days.

Basically and traditionally  I have never posted in the Arctic Sea ice forum in summer as it is the climate based discussion forum.

 I will attempt to reply to some of the issues raised, without adding any suggestions as to the future.

This year I have posted a bit - reason  is that I had noticed very little activity in here and I have stuck to reporting the actual numbers being recorded, when I did post.

 So my latest review follows.....

Basically, currently within the Arctic Basin, the ice Extent is still in a quite good state  (ASIF shows Jaxa at between 12th and 14th lowest) at the moment.

              

 

Whereas (and admittedly) sea ice area is not as resilient. 

        though seems to be steadying recently.

 

The other Ice measuring I have consistently used is Masie   and it also continues to agree with Jaxa and has ice running at very high levels at the moment.

      Over the last few weeks, since I last reported, it has remained above 2022 ( a good year).

(And is 15 - 20% more than 2020),

So currently the ice is in its best state for 3-4 years at least -   I have already attributed this to the La Nina.

But what exactly have we seen in the Atmosphere over the the Arctic Basin? 

In general it has been characterised by higher pressure than usual. 

When we have had low pressure  (as per now), they have been quite weak in terms of gradient, and they have been positioned in the central Arctic.

This has enabled areas of northerly winds to push the ice front further south towards Svalbard and the outer Siberian Islands.

In general this has prevented the warmer waters further south from gaining a foothold into the Arctic. 

Current Surface level pressure chart from Climate Reanalyser is shown below.

  and the temp  anomaly chart for the Basin is also attached here  -

 

  

So the Central Arctic as shown above is below the 1970 - 2000 average, but the average anomaly figure is still an eye watering +1.3C according to its calculations.

Checking ECMWF temperatures as produced by the  DMI (for the Central Arctic), it has shown that the Central Arctic has been below normal for the last 4 months-

     

which considering the higher than forecast amount of ice extent still present in the basin is more likely to be correct, than those from the very high figures quoted by Climate Reanalyser   (GFS based).

I think that people are confusing the higher SST' s currently being recorded with air temps over the Arctic. These have not been high.

The slack conditions over the basin during the melt season (both high pressure and low pressure based) have not in general allowed warm winds to enter the basin.

It could well be this climate situation which has pushed the jet stream (such as it is) to move away from its normal haunts over Greenland and Iceland, and left the basin relatively untouched this year.

As to the future - it will be interesting to see what happens at 'season change' in the ice values during September and October.

Certainly the change to El Nino conditions could slow the ice growth down somewhat,     

GW (not for the first time) expects a collapse in the ice growth. We will see. 

To finish off, I have compared the C.R. 'normal' temps with the current average temps it records for  the Arctic. (also showing an anomaly of +1.30C).

         

On the other hand the reports on the current hiatus on record breaking and abnormal  rainfall amounts being posted on the record breaking thread being produced by Kirkcaldy Weather are indicating a possible different cause.  ie the Hunga Tonga volcano.  Whether this can also affect higher temperatures on the earths surface is being considered by scientists at the moment.  

We must wait for the future outputs and not second guess the outcome..

MIA 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 5, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[Geordiesnow]

What a difference a month makes since the above post. Sea ice is looking TERRIBLE, it's September and we have blue/grey ugly looking ice, the Arctic is running very warm, the PV struggling to form and it's looking stormy with plenty of rain(maybe a bit of sleet perhaps) in the forecast for the basin.

With winds coming in from the open water, expect more ice loss and an extent of under 4 million looking very likely.

Absolutely depressing looking at the ice on worldview on the Atlantic side, it should be white with snow falling, not grey/blue with lots of rain falling.

[Gray-Wolf]

Agreed Geordiesnow!

With us now seeing Hurricanes in the basin there will be more heat/moisture being pumped into the Arctic further impacting the end of melt season

As I mentioned up thread this will be where we see ice levels head down to the lowest for that date as the Warmth of the Hemisphere/El Nino slows down any re-freeze

After what we saw in Antarctica over its freezing season it will be interesting to see if our Hemisphere behaves in a similar way?

 

[Don]

On 09/09/2023 at 00:41, Geordiesnow said:

With winds coming in from the open water, expect more ice loss and an extent of under 4 million looking very likely.

8 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

As I mentioned up thread this will be where we see ice levels head down to the lowest for that date as the Warmth of the Hemisphere/El Nino slows down any re-freeze

So an extended melt season expected then?  Could we be looking at early October before the re-freeze starts this year?  Not sure what the current latest minimum date is?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Don!

I just don't see how things can be 'normal' this year?

 

Surely overall global temps play a role in both the commencement of re-freeze & the overall extent it can put on over the season?

We've seen Antarctica badly mauled by external forcings over its re-freeze & things, if anything, are even more challenging now as El Nino sets in?

So Yes I would expect a slow start to re-freeze & plenty of 'stalls/reducrions' as the Season progresses......this, naturally will impact next melt season if we start from a low point & see open water warming from the 'get go'?