Bonus contests -- summer maximum temperature (UK) and N Atlantic tropical activity (enter one or both)

[Roger J Smith]

Forecasts in this thread (updated) listed in order of high to low extreme value: 

FORECASTER ______________ MAX 2023 _____ DATE ____ LOCATION

Ross90 ____________________39.7 ___________04 Aug ____ Cambridge

Roger J Smith _____________ 38.2 ___________07 Aug ____ Northolt

Polar Gael ________________ 37.7 ___________16 Jul _____ Heathrow

Don _______________________37.5 ___________ 31 Jul _____ Heathrow

Methuselah _______________ 37.2 ___________28 Jul _____ Cambridge

sunny_vale ________________ 37.1 ___________10 Aug ____Heathrow

damianslaw _______________ 37.0 ___________22 Jul _____ Heathrow

Snowy L ___________________ 36.8 ___________31 Jul _____ Cambridge

B87 ________________________36.4 ___________03 Aug ____ St James Park London

The Tall Weatherman _____ 36.2 ___________24 Jul ______ Cambridge

Kirkcaldy Weather ________ 35.9 ___________ 05 Aug _____Cambourne

Emmett Garland __________ 35.7 ___________29 Jul _____ Writtle (Essex)

chilly milly _________________35.4 ___________ 09 Aug ____ Cambridge 

Metwatch _________________ 35.3 ___________ 26 Jul _____ Northolt

summer blizzard __________34.9 ___________ 30 Jun _____Heathrow

virtualsphere _____________ 34.3 ___________ 30 Jul _____ Worcester

bobd29 ___________________ 33.6 ___________ 19 Jul _____ Northolt

NeilN _____________________ 33.4 ___________ 18 Aug ____ Pershore

Summer Shower _________ 32.4 ___________ 09 Aug ____ Northolt

Frigid _____________________ 32.3 ___________ 24 Jun ____ Northolt

Edited July 1, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

Can we somehow combine this thread with the one I created called summer heat watch. I predicted 37 degrees Heathrow second half July, if want exact date will go with 22 July.

There may be other predictions in that thread.

I feel the two are cancelling each other out.

I started it primarily to monitor highest max of year so far, but note this thread isn't just about max temp of the year. 

Edited July 1, 2023 by damianslaw

[Don]

37.5C at Heathrow on the 31st July.

[Roger J Smith]

53 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Can we somehow combine this thread with the one I created called summer heat watch. I predicted 37 degrees Heathrow second half July, if want exact date will go with 22 July.

There may be other predictions in that thread.

I feel the two are cancelling each other out.

I started it primarily to monitor highest max of year so far, but note this thread isn't just about max temp of the year. 

Yes, I posted an apology for duplicating your efforts (unintended, I don't catch everything on the forum) and we can certainly try to merge the two, when I have a bit more time I will go into your thread and see if there are forecasts I can merge into this set, people are welcome to add forecasts here (either new ones or ones they made previously somewhere else). If you did make a forecast and it has already passed its verification date, that will only count here if I can see a time stamp on it. Mind you, if what has already taken place is the annual max, it's going to be rather moderate in July and August when most of the predictions are happening. 

I will also post a copy of this table of forecasts over there so damianslaw's thread has all that content available. If a moderator wants to merge the two threads I am good with that, only a few people entered the multi-forum tropical contest and they already know where to look for results on that. 

Over and out. 

[Roger J Smith]

Just a brief update, I won't know for several days whether or not this September hot spell breaks the mark set in late June, but if so, scoring will be rather lame because no date forecasts appear after mid-August in our table. NeilN seems to have a pretty good approximation but for 18th August. Otherwise, Frigid was in the lead with a very close call for late June.

I am heading out on a road trip and won't be around much for about a week to ten days at least. So there may be no updates here from me for a while. 

Meanwhile, in the hurricane contest, the Netweather contingent joined about 50 other forecasters from American Weather Forum and Boards.ie in a contest thread over on American Weather. The count is now 14/5/3 assuming Margot does reach hurricane status as predicted. Several Net-weather forecasts appear to be in the running for a high score at end of the contest, as we are nowhere near done with 2023 yet, and the count could reach something like 18/9/4 give or take. 

(I'm on take with that)

Would recommend readers of this thread monitor damianlaw's parallel thread in the coming week to see any reports of temperatures compared to the June mark which IIRC was only around 32-33 C, so within range of temps being reported this week. If the outcomes are very similar I may declare co-winners. 

[Roger J Smith]

As already discussed, Neil N and Summer Shower were closest to late season peak of heat, and Frigid did well with the June peak. I think if I attempted to score all forecasts most of the scores would be close to zero under the rules, so I won't bother to do that; will just declare those three to be joint winners for relatively good efforts compared to a larger number of poor ones. 

Now, as to the other contest that some entered, the three-forum tropical season contest, hosted at American Weather Forum, and including the, Boards.ie weather forum, and Net-weather, this was the final scoring report (20 7 3 was outcome).

It shows both 

(a) ranks overall for forecasters ("expert" non-entrants and consensus are ranked but it does not affect ranks down the table)

(b) ranks within your own forum group

(a)_ (b) ___ FORECASTER (order of entry) __ FORECAST ______ penalty pts __ TOTAL (100-pp)

01 01AM _ yotaman (31) _______________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -5 _0 _0 ______ 95.0 ___ 

02 01IE __ tae laidir (IE-1) ______________ 18 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____-1.5 -3 -1 _____ 94.5 ___

03 02AM _wkd (4) _____________________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 

04 03AM _hotair (18) __________________ 16 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -5 -1 _0 ______ 94.0 ___ 

05 04AM _solidicewx (28) _____________ 16 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -5 _0 -1 ______ 94.0 ___ 

06 05AM _diggiebot (12) _______________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0 ____ 92.5 ___ 

07 06AM _Torch Tiger (23) _____________15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 

(08) --- ___ CSU _________________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 

(08) --- ___ TWC ________________________ 15 ____ 7 ____ 3 _____ -7.5 _0 _0_____ 92.5 ___ 

08 07AM _ Stebo (26) __________________15 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 _0 -1 _____ 91.5 ___ 

09 01NW _ SummerShower (NW-3) __17 ____10 ____ 3 _____-3 -6 _0 ______ 91.0 ___ 

10 08AM _ wxdude64 (15) _____________ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 

11 09AM _ GramaxRefugee (33) _______ 16 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 

12 10AM _ Ineedsnow (44) _____________16 ____ 9 ____ 4 _____ -5 -3 -1 ______ 91.0 ___ 

13 11AM _ WxWatcher007 (20) _________15 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___

(13) --- __ NOAA median ______________14.5___7.0 ___2.5 ____-9.1 _0 -0.4 ____ 90.5 ___ 

14 12AM _ BrandonC_TX (36) __________15 ____ 8 ____ 4 _____ -7.5 -1 -1 _____ 90.5 ___ 

15 13AM _ SouthCoastMA (10) _________17 ____10 ____ 4 _____ -3 -6 -1 ______ 90.0 ___ 

16 02IE __ JPmarn (IE-2) _______________ 14 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-10.5 _0 _0 ____ 89.5 ___ 

17 02NW _Emmett Garland (NW-1) __ 16 ____10 ____ 3 _____ -5 -6 _0 ______89.0 ___ 

18 03IE __ Mr Skinner (IE-3) ___________ 16 ____ 9 ____ 5 _____ -5 -3 -3 ______ 89.0 ___ 

19 14AM _ NorthArlington101 (1) _____ 14 ____ 6 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___ 

20 15AM _ nvck (45) ___________________ 14 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -1 _0 ____ 88.5 ___

21 ---- _______ Consensus _____________ 13.8 __ 6.8 __ 2.8 ___-11.2 -0.2 -0.2__ 88.4 ___ 

21 16AM _ JConsor (13) ________________14 ____ 8 ____ 4 ____-10.5 -1 -1 _____ 87.5 ___ 

22 ---- ___ UK Met Office _____________ 20 ___ 11 ____ 5 _____ _0 -10 -3 _____ 87.0 ___ 

22 17AM _ IntenseWind002 (5) ________ 14 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____-10.5 -3 _0 ____ 86.5 ___ 

23 18AM _ LovintheWhiteFluff (34) _____19 ___ 11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___

24 19AM _ StormchaserChuck1 (42) ___21 ____11 ____ 5 ____ -0.5 -10 -3 ____ 86.5 ___

25 20AM _ Marsman (14) ______________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____ -7.5 -6 -1 _____85.5 ___ 

26 21AM _ Superstorm93 (22) __________13 ____ 7 ____ 2 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___ 

27 22AM _ Yoda (40) ___________________13 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ -14 _ 0 -1 ____ 85.0 ___

28 23AM _ George BM (41) _____________13 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____ -14 -1 _0 ____ 85.0 ___ 

29 24AM _ NCForecaster89 (37) _______ 13 ____ 6 ____ 2 _____ -14 -1 -1 ____ 84.0 ___ 

30 25AM _ Roger Smith (19) ____________19 ___ 12 ____ 4 _____-0.5 -15 -1 ___ 83.5 ___

31 03NW _ Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) _16 ___11 ____ 5 _____ -5 -10 -3 ____ 82.0 ___ 

32 26AM  _ Rhino 16 (2) _________________12 ____ 7 ____ 3 ____-18 _0 _0 _____ 82.0 ___ 

33 27AM _ North hills wx (24) __________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 ___ 

34 28AM _ Newman (30) _______________ 13 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -14 -3 -1 _____ 82.0 ___ 

35 29AM _ rclab (43) ___________________ 12 ____ 8 ____ 3 ____ -18 -1 _0 _____ 81.0 ___ 

36 30AM _ crownweather (11) __________ 12 ____ 6 ____ 2 ____ -18 -1 -1 _____ 80.0 ___ 

37 31AM _ Alfoman (25) _________________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 _____-14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 

38 32AM _ Chrisrotary12 (38) ___________13 ____ 5 ____ 1 ____ -14 -3 -3 ____ 80.0 ___ 

39 33AM _ Cat Lady (7) ________________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 3 ____ -18 -3 _0 ____ 79.0 ___ 

40 34AM _ RJay (17) ____________________12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 

41 35AM _ cheese007 (35) _____________ 12 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-18 -3 -1 _____ 78.0 ___ 

42 36AM _ Eyewall (27) _________________12 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____ -18 -6 -1 _____ 75.0 ___ 

43 04IE ___ Pauldry (IE-4) ______________ 21 ____11 ____ 8 ____ -0.5 -10 -15 ___74.5 ___ 

44 37AM _ LakeNormanStormin (3) _____ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____-22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 

45 38AM _ mob1 (8) ____________________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 

46 39AM _ Malacka 11 (29) _____________ 11 ____ 5 ____ 2 ____ -22.5 -3 -1 ____73.5 ___ 

47 40AM _ cnimbus (6) _________________ 10 ____ 7 ____ 2 ___ -27.5 _0 -1 ____ 71.5 ___

48 41AM _ Matthew70 (32) _____________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 2 ____-22.5 -6 -1 ____70.5 ___ 

49 42AM _ Ed, snow and hurricane fan(16)_10.5__4.5__2 ___-25 -4.4 -1 ____ 69.6 ___ 

50 04NW _ Neil N (NW-2) _______________ 12 ____ 11 ___ 1 ___-18 -10 -3 _____ 69.0 ___ 

51 43AM _ GaWx (21) ____________________10 ____ 5 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -3 -1 ____ 68.5 ___ 

52 05NW _ Summer Blizzard (NW-5) ___ 10 ____ 4 ____ 2 ___-27.5 -6 -1 ____ 65.5 ___ 

53 44AM _ The Iceman (39) _____________ 10 ____ 4 ____ 1 ___ -27.5 -6 -3 ____ 63.5 ___ 

54 45AM _ Olafminesaw (9) ______________ 7 ____ 3 ____ 2 ___ -45.5 -10 -1 ___ 43.5 ___ 

____________________________________

Congrats to Summer Shower who was top NW entrant and 9th overall. 

I participate in all three forums so my affiliation tag is somewhat pointless.