Bonus contests -- summer maximum temperature (UK) and N Atlantic tropical activity (enter one or both)

[Roger J Smith]

You may know me from such contests as E.W.P. and C.E.T. ... so here's a bonus contest to enter, unrelated to the C.E.T.-E.W.P. contests as far as scoring goes. 

(1) Maximum temperature summer 2023 UK (official readings only)

Predict the highest temperature to be recorded on any day in 2023 (contest effectively closes 2nd October based on climatology) and add in where and on what date. Ties will be scored as either/or. Scoring system is 50 points for temperature value (minus 1 point per 0.1 C error) and 25 points for location (25 for correct location, 20 for location of 2nd highest, 15 for location of 3rd highest, 10 for 4th and 5 for 5th, ties take out ranks, e.g., two tied at 2nd means those share 20 points, and fourth highest is next rank scored). Also 25 for date, you lose one point per missed day (not within 25 days you score zero). 

My prediction to give a format for this will be Northolt 7 Aug 38.2 C. 

To answer a question I anticipate, Santon Downham will count if they have a value accepted here, will leave that partly to the NW membership as I am not clear on whether their readings are considered "official" met office or not. Also, Gravesend guesses will be rejected so don't guess Gravesend (no longer recording as I understand it). Location must be in UK, Doha, Merida or Yuma AZ don't count.

"Normal" will play off 22 July usual locations 36.5 C. 22 July is median of past years from data I have collected. Range has been mid-May and possibly late April 1775 to around 1st October in 1985. 90% chance of it being mid-June to mid-September and 80% chance 25-30 June, July or August.

This contest closes either 15 June or if I foresee a probable contender before that, on special notice in thread. 

(2) You can also enter an off-site N Atlantic tropical storm forecast contest (on American Weather Forum, I run the contest), just predict the count for the end of the season and note it is currently 1/0/0 for tropical storms, any hurricanes, and major hurricanes in that order. The recent average is around 16/9/3. This contest will be within Net-weather for entries here, and your entry will be noted over on American Wx also, unless you request not to participate. Deadline for this one is end of day 4th of June. Season is all calendar year not 1 June to 30 Nov. Count is already 1/0/0 due to un-named but designated tropical storm later re-analyzed for mid-January. Your prediction should include that one. 

My forecast in this one is 19/12/4. 

No requirement to enter both contests, You can enter one or both. Enter here and not in CET contest thread. Good luck !!

The temperature maximum contest does not supersede any Net-weather special contests nor does your entry there, if such contest occurs, transfer to this contest. 

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

To answer another question likely to be raised, a forecast temperature in a county or region, country etc without a location (e.g., Essex, East Anglia, Wales) will be capped at 10 points regardless of potential higher score. So if a person is correct about max being Essex, they can score 10 points. If anyone says England however that will be capped at 5 points. Scotland will be capped at 15 points. Northern Ireland will be capped at 20 points. 

I don't know if Isle of Man or Channel Islands are considered part of UK for weather events or not, but I seriously doubt that they would record the seasonal max anyway, so will be quite happy to see you waste 25 points with a guess on those, if correct you will receive max points without a specific location. 

Maybe somebody who knows can tell us if a location in Scotland or NI have ever recorded a summer maximum for the UK or not. I don't know and I would doubt it but not so strongly as to say cannot happen. Wales also seems unlikely but there again, I don't know. 

[sunny_vale]

I'll go with 37.1C at Heathrow Airport on the 10th of August.

[emmett garland]

ill have 35.7 in Writtle on the 29th July and Ill have 16/10/3 Roger

[Polar Gael]

Heathrow 16th July 37.7°C for me please.

[NeilN]

Pershore 33.4c - 18th August. The latter 12/12/1 

[Metwatch]

Northolt 35.3C July 26th

[Ross90]

Cambridge 39.7C August 4th.

[damianslaw]

I started a similiar thread... max temp aspect.

[SummerShower]

Northolt, 32.4C, 9 August.

Atlantic hurricane season let's go 17/10/3

[Roger J Smith]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I started a similiar thread... max temp aspect.

sorry, was it in a contest format or a discussion? will look into it. 

[Bobd29]

Northolt 33.6C, 19th July, thanks.

[B87]

St James's Park, 36.4c on 3rd August

[chilly milly]

35.4c Cambridge 9th August

[The Tall Weatherman]

36.2c Cambridge 24th July.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1. 35.9C Cambourne August 5th
2. 16 Named > 11 Hurricanes > 5 Major 

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks for entries and please note, there is a parallel heat contest started by damianslaw in this forum, I didn't spot it when I started this one. If you didn't enter that one, I may summarize any entries here and plant them over there too.

If you entered the tropical seasonal contest, thanks and I will post more info on that contest which is over on American Weather Forum which is very similar to NW on a U.S. scale, a few entrants from the Irish weather forum on boards.ie will also be along on that adventure, so a three forum contest. Please note, entries close for the tropical contest end of this coming weekend. Your entries will be posted then over there. 

[Roger J Smith]

For those who entered the three-forum tropical seasonal contest, here's a link to that with an early table of entries.

You can still enter that contest up until 06z Monday. (I realize some here may have accounts on that forum and may have entered under a different i.d., for example, me) ... 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/page/2/#comment-6925360

[virtualsphere]

34.3C Worcester, July 30th

[dryfie]

On 31/05/2023 at 21:19, NeilN said:

Pershore 33.4c - 18th August. The latter 12/12/1 

Beware, think there’s two official sites at Pershore: airfield 03528 and college 03529.

[Snowy L]

Cambridge 36.8C 31st July

[summer blizzard]

Since I expect June to be as good as summer gets I shall go for London Heathrow, 30th June, 34.9C.

For the hurricane contest I shall go 10/4/2

[Methuselah]

Well, as I haven't a clue, I'll guess 37.2C, in Cambridge, on the 28th of July. 

[Roger J Smith]

1 hour ago, Methuselah said:

Well, as I haven't a clue, I'll guess 37.2C, in Cambridge, on the 28th of July. 

Sounds like a clued in forecast to me. 

[Frigid]

32.3C, June 24th at Northolt.

Feel like June will be the best of this summer, a front loaded one.