Particular dates which are usually settled or unsettled

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Always around 18th to 26th Sept to me the most unsettled, horrible time of year

Edited September 17, 2023 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Bradley in Kent]

Evening all, 

Years ago, I remember reading an article on Metcheck which talks about this very thing. It's well worth a read and I reckon it'll be very relevant based on posts in this chat. For ease I've linked it below:

Metcheck.com - UK Weather Singularities - Average Weather Across The UK Every Year.

WWW.METCHECK.COM

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Metcheck.com - UK Weather Singularities -...

 

[Summer8906]

On 13/09/2023 at 12:37, B87 said:

Last 10 days of March are almost always settled and mild to warm. Most of April is settled and dry.

19th July is almost always hot.

First half of September is usually sunny and dry.

The first week of November is usually settled.

Christmas Day is usually cold and sunny.

New Years Eve is always very mild and cloudy. New Years Day is usually sunny.

 

Surprised at that, where I am New Year's Day is usually poor (usually mild, cloudy, some rain):

2023 - very mild, dull, rain before dark

2022 - out of country, but from what I gather exceptionally mild but drizzly

2021 - fog, cold

2020 - mild and dull, drizzle later

2019 - sunny start, cloudy later, dry

2018 - damp morning, sun in afternoon, rather mild

2017 - wet and rather cold

2016 - out of country, but mild and very wet from what I gather

2015 - mild and dull

2014 - very wet, mild

2013 - some sun, cloudy at times, breezy

2012 - mild, cloudy, some rain

2011 - coldish, cloudy

2010 - sunny, cold

2009 - cloudy, cold

2008 - mild, wet

2007 - mild, some rain from time to time

Which years were sunny for you?

I only remember a handful of sunny New Year's Days: 1980, 1985, 1995, 2002 and 2010. The new year almost always gets off to a poor start, and New Year's Eve is similarly poor most years.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

To add to that, these are generally what I notice. Some of these features have been mentioned by several authors including the "return of the westerlies" in June though I forget who invented that phrase - but others are based on my own observations only.

Jan 1-20: mostly unsettled, mild and stormy, particularly early in the new year

Feb: variable throughout. Occasionally a short, late cold spell at the end of the month.

March: usually a sustained settled spell, this used to set in around the 7th but of late has been delayed to mid-month

April: early, mid-month often fine. end of month is usually fairly unsettled and often relatively cold, often following a fine spell earlier

May: early month often a little cold, including the May Day holiday. Easterly spells early-mid month. the end of May is again often fairly unsettled, often there is an initial return of the westerlies around the late May holiday

June: settled spells likely early-mid month as blocking takes over for one last time before the "return of the westerlies". Often an unsettled spell late month, coinciding with Glastonbury

July: settled around the 20th, unsettled but warm at the end

August: any fine spell tends to occur in first 10 days. 10th-25th often unsettled. Holiday weekend often sees a settling down, though can be quite cool.

September: the tendency for the first 10-15 days to be fine is perhaps the most famous of these singularities. Last week often poor, and has been every year since 2019

October: fine spell early to mid month in some years. Late month, including when the clocks go back, seems to be very frequently stormy

November: early month often very mild and dull but often not that wet. Bonfire Nights tend to be like this. Month becomes wetter later but quite often, the end is settled and somewhat cold.

December: usually a poor month but if settled weather is to occur it's usually early or mid month. The period after the solstice often very stormy and wet. Indeed, the turn of the year seems to be the worst period for weather on average, being poor in a majority of years.

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by Summer8906

[B87]

On 21/09/2023 at 14:54, Summer8906 said:

Surprised at that, where I am New Year's Day is usually poor (usually mild, cloudy, some rain):

2023 - very mild, dull, rain before dark

2022 - out of country, but from what I gather exceptionally mild but drizzly

2021 - fog, cold

2020 - mild and dull, drizzle later

2019 - sunny start, cloudy later, dry

2018 - damp morning, sun in afternoon, rather mild

2017 - wet and rather cold

2016 - out of country, but mild and very wet from what I gather

2015 - mild and dull

2014 - very wet, mild

2013 - some sun, cloudy at times, breezy

2012 - mild, cloudy, some rain

2011 - coldish, cloudy

2010 - sunny, cold

2009 - cloudy, cold

2008 - mild, wet

2007 - mild, some rain from time to time

Which years were sunny for you?

I only remember a handful of sunny New Year's Days: 1980, 1985, 1995, 2002 and 2010. The new year almost always gets off to a poor start, and New Year's Eve is similarly poor most years.

I might be getting confused with that general time of the year. The last sunny NYD here was actually in 2013. 2nd January is sunny more often than not, though.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 16/09/2023 at 14:19, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

22nd of September (or thereabouts) is another one. The weather around that time is almost always more on the unsettled side. 

With this year being no different.

[Summer8906]

On 22/09/2023 at 17:48, B87 said:

I might be getting confused with that general time of the year. The last sunny NYD here was actually in 2013. 2nd January is sunny more often than not, though.

Ah ok thanks.

Yes I've strangely noticed an improvement on the 2nd Jan. 2012, 2017 and this year spring to mind.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Looks like this year's 30th of September could very well be settled for a change.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91