What stations deserve a top 10 hottest day and which station should get the next all-time record?

[CryoraptorA303]

As the Hottest Heatwave of All Time Championship is having a long weekend and the 'months that deserved records' thread has mostly run its course, I thought I'd start something new in the meantime.

Originally I was debating which one of these topics I should go with, but then I decided to combine them into the same thread, because why not?

Which stations, in your opinion, should have a top 10 hottest day, and which one should get the next all-time record, whether it happens in one year or 100 years?

Personally I think Benson in Oxfordshire should have a top 10. East Malling in Kent is surely also due one. Charlwood is kind of like the SE's Cheltenham (RIP to that station, I've actually been near the park that was in) and judging by the kind of feats its been pulling in the last few years it should surely have a top 10 by now. Although Wisley does have the 9th hottest day, surely 36.5C is severely threatened as a top 10 temperature and will disappear from the list in the next few years, so Wisley should really get another entry. Heathrow getting the 2020 37.8C and 36.4C jointly with Kew also feels a bit cheap and surely that was Charlwood's or Wisley's top 10 to get.

As for the next all-time record, East Anglia has had both of the last ones so this time I reckon East Malling, Frittenden (Frittenden could also be a top 10 candidate) or Faversham are due one. If it has to be East Anglia again then I'd suggest Writtle or Cavendish this time, maybe East Bergholt. Surrey is probably also overdue an all-time considering how hot it gets outside of the all-time record heatwaves, so Charlwood or Wisley could get the next record. If I had to put a number on it I'd say the next all-time will be 40.8C.

Edited December 15, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[SummerShower]

From a local perspective Farnborough, Reading University, or Stratfield Mortimer should have a top 10.  Maybe Middle Wallop or Bournemouth too, as with the right wind direction these stations can get pretty hot.  You do need an easterly component to the wind to get the hottest temperatures in this area.

Other stations.. I agree with Benson, this station does get very hot, as does Pershore, and Coleshill. 

Porthmadog in Wales is also another one that could have 1 entry, as again with the right wind direction this station is at least 1 degree hotter than anywhere else.  IIRC there was a day this summer where nowhere in the UK exceeded 25.3 apart from Porthmadog, which got just shy of 30.  The same was true in June 2018.

Edited December 16, 2023 by SummerShower

[A Face like Thunder]

Being an ex-pat southerner living in the NW of England, I would want to nominate Nantwich in Cheshire in the top 10 - the hottest place in the NW on both 18th and 19th July 2022. If Nantwich is not a station as such, I think there is one nearby in Cheshire which would do instead. 

[SummerShower]

38 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Being an ex-pat southerner living in the NW of England, I would want to nominate Nantwich in Cheshire in the top 10 - the hottest place in the NW on both 18th and 19th July 2022. If Nantwich is not a station as such, I think there is one nearby in Cheshire which would do instead. 

That could be Rostherne.  That's often one of the warmest NW England stations.

[hillbilly]

6 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Being an ex-pat southerner living in the NW of England, I would want to nominate Nantwich in Cheshire in the top 10 - the hottest place in the NW on both 18th and 19th July 2022. If Nantwich is not a station as such, I think there is one nearby in Cheshire which would do instead. 

What if any relation would somewhere like Shawbury and surrounding area [which holds the Minimum English record ] have the possibility of being close to the Hottest record.

 

[CryoraptorA303]

7 hours ago, SummerShower said:

From a local perspective Farnborough, Reading University, or Stratfield Mortimer should have a top 10.  Maybe Middle Wallop or Bournemouth too, as with the right wind direction these stations can get pretty hot.  You do need an easterly component to the wind to get the hottest temperatures in this area.

Other stations.. I agree with Benson, this station does get very hot, as does Pershore, and Coleshill. 

Porthmadog in Wales is also another one that could have 1 entry, as again with the right wind direction this station is at least 1 degree hotter than anywhere else.  IIRC there was a day this summer where nowhere in the UK exceeded 25.3 apart from Porthmadog, which got just shy of 30.  The same was true in June 2018.

Farnborough and Reading are two good ones. As is Middle Wallop, I forgot about that one.

Pershore does have Cheltenham Syndrome but it doesn't seem to top the daily charts enough. Normally somewhere like Heathrow just outpaces it (more on Heathrow later).

Both Southampton and Ross-on-Wye historically caught tons of daily maxima, as did Farnborough, but they seem to be really underperforming lately. The last time the Southampton/Bournemouth area caught major daily maxima seems to be July 2014. Before that were Aprils 2011 and 2007. It seems to have been mostly inactive since 1995. I don't even know the last time Farnborough was a serious player in any heatwaves, maybe a few days in 2006? Apart from that its been totally off the radar.

The London stations are generally trustworthy but Heathrow in the last 10 or so years seems to consistently get 0.5-1C hotter than the rest of London. For instance July 1st 2015 where Heathrow got 36.7C vs both Northolt and Kew getting 35.7C, and that was the next highest temp of the day. I'm not implying "JET ENGINES HEATING THE AIR UP" kind of nonsense, that's obviously not the case, but it does make me distrust Heathrow a bit and on a couple of select dates such as that one I generally disregard the Heathrow reading. It's very weird and I haven't seen any really compelling argument for it vs Northolt and Kew.

As for Wales, I'm surprised Harwarden Bridge hasn't had a mention yet. That one has achieved notable daily maxima during intense heatwaves and I'm honestly surprised it's not a top tenner. Usk also threatened the 35.2C record from 1990 in 2006 but seems to have largely died off since.

Overall it seems like compared to historical precedent, East Anglia and the immediate surroundings have overperformed to quite a degree (pun intended ) in the most extreme heatwaves since 2006. I wonder if it could have something to do with changing precipitation levels affecting soil moisture in different regions? It seems like the general diversity of maxima holders is declining significantly, and for those further west I would not blame them for thinking that 1976 and 1995 were still worse than anything since. The major heatwaves are very regularly leaving them out unlike more historical events. The only time since 1995 that further northwest seems to have been included or the epicentre was 2021, which was a truly odd case with high lat blocking and a southern storm track. Heathrow of course still somehow took that one when historically even places as far out as Newton Rigg and Dumfries have taken the maxima in these kinds of heatwaves.

We also haven't had a great many serious June heatwaves in some time, and its normally in these heatwaves that Southampton, Pershore etc. normally perform best in, along with London. I would say the next June record when it does eventually come along should go to Benson or Middle Wallop, with Reading and Pershore as close runner-ups. Southampton getting it again would be a great comeback, but I can't help but feel that a single area shouldn't get a second record in a row. I don't even want to see a London station in the top 10 but especially with a June heatwave that's essentially impossible.

6 hours ago, A Face like Thunder said:

Being an ex-pat southerner living in the NW of England, I would want to nominate Nantwich in Cheshire in the top 10 - the hottest place in the NW on both 18th and 19th July 2022. If Nantwich is not a station as such, I think there is one nearby in Cheshire which would do instead. 

 

6 hours ago, SummerShower said:

That could be Rostherne.  That's often one of the warmest NW England stations.

There is an actual Nantwich station and it gets quite hot for how far north it is, although it's not quite Harwarden Bridge levels. I could definitely see somewhere in the Cheshire Gap getting a top 10 at some stage though if everything goes right; you'll probably need a serious June heatwave to do it though, by August those easterlies tend to be pretty weak if existent at all (normally by then it gets mid-Surrey and West Sussex to daily maxima and not further west) although it can still happen. Earlier July might be better for it as in June you have the cool Irish Sea to worry about.

35 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

What if any relation would somewhere like Shawbury and surrounding area [which holds the Minimum English record ] have the possibility of being close to the Hottest record.

 

I highly doubt the Cheshire Gap will ever be in the position to set an all-time record or seriously threaten it, simply because the hottest air will always be further south. August 1990 was really the closest we ever got to that region being close to the threatening area. However in the exactly perfect scenario of the hottest air getting stuck in the Gap as part of a severe June or July heatwave I could see a 37-38C day being set there. More than that though and the kind of heatwave required has almost certainly bumped London and its surroundings to 40+ by that point. June 2017 was probably the last serious attempt at a western heatwave and London still overtook everyone else. I'm not sure that kind of heatwave is even possible anymore, for whatever reasons are at play. The future of heatwaves will likely be in London, Surrey, East Anglia and sometimes Kent and the Sussexes if they decide to come out with very little room for others. Whether this is down to the southeast corner of Britain's climate changing faster, changes in precipitation and soil moisture, urban heat islands, a combination of these factors or something else entirely is something I can't say. Of course exceptions will always happen with the aforementioned Porthmadog getting far hotter than you'd expect for a western coastal town, but I don't think anyone seriously expects it to challenge the real hotspots. Seeing Porthmadog catch a top 10 day would be fun though.

Edited December 16, 2023 by CryoraptorA303