2024 Tornado Season

[Sparkiee storm]

Ryan saying its coming towards more populated areas again.

[Sparkiee storm]

WTF!!! A mile or bigger!!!

[WeatherArc]

 

[WeatherArc]

Its crazy how we've had multiple violent wedges in an enhanced 10%#, significant overperformance than what all the models were showing. 67 tornado reports and counting.

[Allseasons-Si]

A couple of clips from the chasers...,dang this is a biggy.

 

 

 

 

[Sparkiee storm]

 WeatherArc Yeah this could have easily been a moderate or even high risk day with 15% plus hatched, but its gotta be hard for the NWS to decide what to do. Also wow to the damage below.

Nice CG lighting in front of the tornado.

Edited April 26 by Sparkiee storm

[WeatherArc]

 

[weatherobsuk]

Des Moines next in the firing line as the CAPE transfers eastwards, already there's 3x Tornado warned storms tracking NE to the SW of the city.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Incredible outbreak. By the time I’d logged off, there had been 83 confirmed tornadoes in a single day. Insane. Some of them twisters in Nebraska and Iowa appeared not from this world, with what looked like Timelapsed footage happening in real time! Must’ve been a tremendously strong low level jet thrown into the mix. 

Edited April 27 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[The Tall Weatherman]

Moving our heads always from a historic outbreak filled to the brim with photogenic and potentially violent tornadoes, today is also looking rather active and very significant. This event has uptrended in the fact the environment is primed and storms look discrete when they form according to almost every model set available. Huge curvature in the Hodograph along with a 60kt LLJ,  also a very moist and an unstable atmosphere should be in place as the first storms fire. The SPC have noted this risk and have upgraded to MDT across much of Central OK including OKC and parts of Texas and Kansas

Storm Prediction Center Apr 27, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV

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Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

 

[Eagle Eye]

What looked to me like ridiculously low LCL's and high low-level shear counteractdd fairly weak surface energy and not brilliant saturated profiles for already one of the biggest outbreaks in the last few years and probably the one with the most significant tornadoes in recent memory. Today has the potential to do the same but that morning convection might save us from that. We shall see. 

 The Tall Weatherman

Oklahoma City unfortunately in the middle of the moderate risk. 

[The Tall Weatherman]

@Eagle Eye I really do hope the some morning convection can clear away a bit of the risk but I am dead concerned about the latest HRRR. A completely an untapped environment over much of the Central/western portions of OK and then we suddenly see multiple storms that look very nasty. If storms can get control of this atmosphere it will be most likely a scenario where every single storm is tornadic.

[Eagle Eye]

We might have so many classic images from last night. 

[Eagle Eye]

More to add to the incredible photos. 

 

[Sparkiee storm]

Yeah looks like another significant day if models are right. The SPC has upgraded to a moderate risk with a massive hatched risk for Hail up to 45%, with the hatched area from Iowa to the Texas/Mexico boarder. Also a 30% damaging wind risk in East Oklahoma and North Texas. Finally that 15% hatched tornado risk for SE Kansas, a lot of Oklahoma and North Texas. 10% hatched from far south of Nebraska to Central parts of Texas.

Unfortunately quite a lot of damage yesterday so lets hope any tornado today stays over the fields of the plains.

Preliminary reports from yesterday are saying 100 reported tornado's but probably more that wasn't seen/reported.  

Edited April 27 by Sparkiee storm

[WeatherArc]

We are now up to 100 tornado reports, last night was an incredible, historic day.

@Sparkiee storm beat me to it haha

Edited April 27 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Heres the full Spc readout for todays risk.

"Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The greatest potential for severe storms will be from north Texas into Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, where strong tornadoes, very large hail over 2 inches in diameter and widespread damaging winds (some over 70 mph), are expected to occur. A broader area of severe threat will extend from south-central Texas north-northeastward to the Great Lakes.

...Tornado Outbreak Expected Today From North Texas into Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas and Far Southwest Missouri... ...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest today as an 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates quickly eastward through the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a low will move eastward across southwest Kansas with a dryline extending southward through far western Oklahoma and west Texas. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline will be in the mid to upper 60s F. In response to warm advection this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop to the east of the dryline across northwest Texas. This cluster is forecast to spread north-northeastward into western Oklahoma by late morning. Large hail and wind damage will be likely with the stronger cells within this cluster. An outflow boundary with this convection should setup across west-central Oklahoma by early afternoon, with a moist and unstable airmass extending eastward from the boundary across much of central and eastern Oklahoma northward into southeast Kansas. This undisturbed airmass is expected to be favored for the greatest severe threat this afternoon and evening. The mid-level jet is forecast to eject quickly northeastward across the southern Plains this afternoon. This will result in strong deep-layer shear across most of the southern Plains, and will create a large-scale mass response that will be very favorable for severe storms, including supercells and bowing line segments. As the core of the mid-level jet moves into the southern Plains during the mid to late afternoon, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will rapidly strengthen. RAP forecast sounding along and near the low-level jet during the late afternoon look very favorable for tornadoes, with backed surface flow, and long looping hodographs. As the low-level jet strengthens, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 400 m2/s2 across much of central and eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. The more dominant and supercells that interact with the western and northern edge of the low-level jet are expected to become tornadic. Several strong tornadoes will be likely, and a few long-track EF3+ tornadoes will be possible. In addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km across much of the warm sector this afternoon from north Texas to southeast Kansas. This will be favorable for very large hail, with hailstones over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more intense storms. Later in the evening, a line of severe storms is expected to form, moving eastward across eastern Oklahoma and north Texas. Wind gusts over 70 mph will be possible with the more intense parts of the line. QLCS tornadoes will also be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line late this evening into the overnight period.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... An upper-level low will move through the southern Rockies today, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the central Plains. At the surface, a warm front will be located from near a surface low in southwest Kansas east-northeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. This front will be a focus for convective development this afternoon. A band of severe storms is expected to form near the front and move northward across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska during the early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northeast Kansas near the front from 18Z to 21Z have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting that tornadoes will be likely with the more discrete supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible. Further west into northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado, cold temperatures aloft, strong large-scale ascent associated with an upper-level low, and strong deep-layer shear will likely support lower-topped supercells with large hail and strong wind gusts this afternoon. ...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move northeastward across the Great Lakes region today. From near the trough, and southwestward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, a wide corridor of moderate instability will be in place by afternoon. A warm front will be in located along the northern edge of the instability, from Iowa northeastward into south-central Wisconsin and north-central lower Michigan. As surface heating takes place and low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorms will likely form in the vicinity of the boundary. Forecast soundings near the front at 21Z have MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, along with 40 knots of deep-layer shear. This should support supercells with potential for large hail and wind damage. The severe threat should be greatest during the late afternoon and early evening."

 

[WeatherArc]

Not an amazing trend on models, we shall see what happens but trending more of a cap in the morning favours a better environment for supercells later in the evening.

Not a great two analogs to pull near the okc metro.

[WeatherArc]

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Isn't the Sherman out there now?

[WeatherArc]

Im not saying they will definitely but im sure the spc is considering the upgrade to a high risk for portions of Oklahoma, latest trends on the HRRR have much less morning convection and much more cape in the evening, some places have gone from 1000 to 3500 j/kg of sbcape in the last few runs.

 

Storm mode is the thing to look at, will likely decide whether the spc goes high or not. Regardless a very favourable looking atmosphere. 

[TwisterGirl81]

I went on the netweather tornado tour about 6/7 years ago, I was in the 4th group, didn’t see a tornado unfortunately but saw some good storms and beautiful scenery of Montana, the Dakota’s, Kansas etc, would love to do it again in the next few years 

[Eagle Eye]

Taking a look at yesterday versus today. 

Substantial low-level shear, but given the weak energy at the surface, it appears that the very low LCL's significantly helped with tornadic production. Something to keep an eye on for events that feel like they might not be so big just because of the other signals.

Comparing that to today's risk, significantly more shearing and fairly similar CAPE, along with a more typical saturation profile. However, the LCL's vary a lot, theoretically this has higher end potential, but I suspect there will be less significant tornadoes, but there's more  favouring long track potential. 

Edited April 27 by Eagle Eye

[WeatherArc]

Observed sounding from OKC this morning, loaded gun with stout cap.

[Eagle Eye]

 WeatherArc

Shear is more significant than most models showing and saturation even better for what you'd typically see. This has that feel that it'll be nothing or very significant.