Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024

[Eagle Eye]

Verification. 

[Wade]

 Eagle Eye Pretty much bang on mate, not a single strike reported outside the 'slight' zone but within the moderate and especially high risks, it has been fireworks galore, very accurate.

[alexisj9]

 Eagle Eye didn't even have these here, just nice and sunny all day.

[Supacell]

So another chase day, but today was a frustrating one. Not a bust, but not great either.

I was convinced that the West Midlands was going to be well placed today for some good storms. Admittedly the higher risk was further west, but I thought the storms over the Midlands would be good enough that I wouldn't bother going any further. When things started erupting across the West Country up into Gloucestershire I felt hopeful. This resulted in me heading into Shropshire and eventually parking up not far from Newport to watch a cell that was moving through Worcestershire come over. However, it died a very quick death pretty much as soon as I parked up.

I was about to leave when I saw a flash of lightning. This was followed by a couple more, but these flashes were to my east from a new storm that developed just northeast of me and was moving away quickly, leaving me with just enough rain that I had to go back to the car. Storms then began breaking out all across to my north and moving away from where I was. Had the storms really just died out to my south and then re-generated to my north where I had just driven through less than an hour earlier! It appeared that they had. So I decided to head north too in the hope more would develop.

Heading north through Stafford and onto the M6 I did see the odd feint flash, but nothing much. As I approached Stoke on Trent I saw a couple more, but again quite a distance away. By now things looked like they were getting quite interesting over the Peak District and so I headed towards Leek in the hope that more storms could build, and this time it seemed like I had finally done the right thing.

As I approached Leek I could see a few flashes of distant lightning again, from a cell which was heading towards Buxton. Chasing the storm from Leek to Buxton I finally got treated to some bigger, brighter flashes of lightning and some nice IC's and CG's. One of the CG's was particularly nice, but I am unsure if it was captured until I check back through my camera footage. It was pouring with rain though and so I couldn't stop and get out. Besides, stopping for even 5 minutes would probably mean losing the storm. So as I headed further north past Buxton the lightning activity died somewhat and I also realised I was never going to catch it up. More storms had got my attention, around Uttoxeter and running towards Ashbourne. I made the decision to leave the storms I was attempting, and failing, to catch to get ahead of these.

As soon as I made the decision to intercept them, they died out. At the same time a new cell developed over Belper (my home town), which meant if I had stayed home I would have seen probably as much as I had seen on my storm chase.

Overall it wasn't a complete bust chase, I did see something but I feel I could've got more by heading further afield, or just straight for the Peak District rather than southwards first. I can't win them all though and anyway, I would describe what I saw as being a mass of rain with embedded pulse storms providing a brief show. I can't imagine I would have been able to get out under them and get any good footage.  

[Allseasons-Si]

More oppertunities through this week namely Thus and Friday and staying on the warm side,...owt could pop up through the week though.

[convector]

 Supacell

7 minutes ago, Supacell said:

At the same time a new cell developed over Belper (my home town), which meant if I had stayed home I would have seen probably as much as I had seen on my storm chase.

Damn i've been there.. it hurts still experience at the end of the day, though. makes us better chasers in the long run. I'l never forget it was around this time in 2018 i was chasing those massive storms in the midlands - i finally got in good position on the west side of the storms, parked up and the camera died... memory card corrupted. i try my phone but its crashed from the heat. in the end i just decide to enjoy the moment watching what was left of the lightning. When i get home, i find out i wasn't in good position at all. Turns out the best view was on the east side of the storms and not too far from home.. It was heartbreaking. Some of the best footage i'd ever seen and i missed it. 

[weatherobsuk]

Screenshot from my video today that's still processing on youtube. Taken at Pym Chair, upper Goyt Valley.

[weatherobsuk]

 

[Supacell]

 convector that must have been awful. Over the years there have been many times where I've ended up going to the wrong place but for my camera to die, that would be the ultimate frustration. 

Having said that. The 19th July 2014, a supercell thunderstorm breaks out around Oxfordshire and heads north through the Midlands. I attempt to intercept it but my car decides to stall and it takes about 30 minutes for me to get it working again. I actually somehow, by some miracle, still just about manage to catch it up when I hit heavy traffic and it moves off into the distance. I honestly considered giving up storm chasing on that day. I'm glad I didn't

Edited May 12 by Supacell

[wimblettben]

Too far West today for anything.

Wish those storms to the North and East of here happened at nighttime as atleast i would have had a heat lightning display.

[convector]

woww man i feel for you   July 19th is a date firmly in my mind. Not trying to brag but that storm came to me that day and its probably the luckiest I've ever been. One of the most sureal moments of my life watching the meso swirl directly above me. crazy! but if that hadn't happened i wouldn't have chased that day in 2018 - and 2016 when a strange supercell tracked through reading and newbury and turned everything purple! if i'd only stayed home i would've seen it.

But still, many great times would come and my best chases by far have been the opposite of that. Just post up in a good location and wait. scotland prime example today with those mountains just north of glasgow producing storms for last 5hrs or so - wouldn't even have to move spots, just sit back and enjoy. 

[Karl83]

Morning all, managed to chase the cell that blew up from Chepstow area but ended up losing ground due to flood roads and having to turn back. At one point a family were rescued from their car as they became stuck on a grass verge separated by a torrent of water. The hail was pretty awesome as well as slightly bigger than the usual pea sized stuff! Anyways, once I managed to get signal again I made my way to a National Trust location (The Kymin) and watched the line of storms that came from the Bristol channel make their way over the Black Mountains. Didn't see much in the way of lightning but always love the cloud structure during these events. 

[summer blizzard]

Anything for today?

[alexisj9]

 summer blizzard radar looks like a band of rain  approaching from the sw.

[NUT]

That band of rain is about the lot for today no chance of a repeat of yesterday

[Wade]

 summer blizzard No, I will bet on about £10k that it won't be anywhere near as prolific as yesterday.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

 Karl83 that first pic

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Next few days from my basic knowledge and rudimentary skills - showery with some longer spells of rain. Little convective action but cannot rule out some heavier bursts.

Flow seems slack from the south, so warm(ish) but nothing to get too excited about until towards the end of the week and into the weekend where the flow becomes a little more pronounced and could bring us some juicier air to work with (but we are peeking into +5 days at this point so a lot can and will change)

Good time of year to keep an eye on FI as this is from where the next exciting event will materialise, the chop and change of the forecasts always being an exciting thing to monitor

[Karl83]

 Flash bang flash bang etc Yep that's a beaut. I tried to find a suitable spot to fly my drone up to get a better look but I was practically standing in a river here so no take off permitted! 

[weatherobsuk]

A few from yesterday's outing around Buxton & Macc Forest. A shame the 'Anvil Shadow' from the Welsh Borders somewhat inhibited convection so it turned into a more 'pulse cell' event embedded in the MSC, but something is always better than nothing.

[MikeUpjohn]

Brilliant chase yesterday of some 200 miles. Not bad for the UK! Headed out from Macclesfield with my partner, with a target of Broxton just South of Chester. God there to a grey haze but nothing amazing.

So we headed to Wrexham and then down to Oswestry where it kicked off. Inky black skies and booming thunder.

Ended up just West of Llangollen to watch lightning bounce round the valleys, a shear funnel. Coming back through Llangollen about 1730 was a treat. Large hail actually donking the roof and windscreen and quite a lot of it. Some stones upto .75 of an inch!

Ended back in Macclesfield with another storm about 7.30pm to finish the day off.

Pictures to come!

[Josh Rubio]

Thursday afternoon we have rain coming in from the east, which is a pretty unusual direction to receive it from. I’m wondering if/what effect this has on convection vs the usual southerly or southwesterly feed? 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

 Josh Rubio good spot - I saw this earlier and thought the same thing! Really uncommon for this to happen, so I really do wonder what the chances are of it verifying.

Not sure what conditions will be in place ahead of it, not expecting much will be there to tap into

[Eagle Eye]

We can't do a forecast today but a few thundery showers possible in Ireland and the SW. A low risk though. 

[Rush2019]

This is a long time away in weather terms, but it  is worth seeing how it develops.  For Sunday early hours.