Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024

[viking_smb]

@Eagle Eye whats the current thinking please mate?

[Thunderspotter]

Just thought I'd share a few notable times that the latest (from a few hours ago but still relevant atm) AROME is kicking out. Looks pretty interesting. 

There's a major catch though - a lack of CAPE

I'm not as in-depth as some others here on this chat but I'm pretty sure that there is a significant link between CAPE and convection... right?

Interested to hear all your opinions on if you think anything could spring up in the early morning hours.  

[Eagle Eye]

 viking_smb

Convective Outlook️ 

A complex of showers and storms should form Wednesday night across the southern coasts, perhaps evolving into a squall line if forcing can allow it. Lightning may be quite limited unless forcing dramatically increases on the models for constructive mergers to occur for MCS growth. That is looking unlikely at the moment, with mainly downgrades.

 

Saturation is high and that limits lightning without the high forcing, might lead into heavy rain rather than storms if no breaks in the extremely high saturation forecasted on some models. Lightning still is a risk mostly though and could be frequent in the case mentioned earlier.

 

High 3CAPE does favour lots of low-level energy for hail and tornadic activity. Hail may be near severe if the low-level shear is negotiated with low storm bases, and that would also help with mainly coastal tornadic risk.

 

Strong wind gusts are moving through at the same time and may be of severe status, perhaps influenced to even stronger given the low-level energy and windfield around the boundary layer. A squall line if it does form could also increase that risk.

 

The timing is throughout the very early morning for the southwest and extending east later on towards 3 to 5am roughly and lasting through till mid morning in the SW and towards 8 to 9am maybe in the SE. A few showery storms could linger in eastern parts longer on the Northern part of the initial weakening showers.

 Thunderspotter

CAPE is the convective available potential energy but I think that's surface based CAPE and as its night, theres rarely much surface based CAPE. Should be more when you go further up. Gone moderate because there's already storms closing in which is potentially a good sign. 

[Thunderspotter]

 Eagle Eye Awesome forecast, right on cue!!

I spy the first ever moderate risk of 2024? I'm all here for it!

I love these forecasts, great work as always lol

 

Edit: Just seen your reply @Eagle Eye - Thanks for the info too  

Edited April 3 by Thunderspotter

[viking_smb]

 Eagle Eye thanks mate, I take it that the actual south coast of england is most at risk then, asking as I want a decent nights sleep as knackered

Edited April 3 by viking_smb

[viking_smb]

by the looks of things it is going to go through the channel just clipping devon and cornwall 

[ChannelThunder]

While Blitz looks even better at the moment, UKV largely kills it off now during the night.

[viking_smb]

 ChannelThunder that is my thinking as well lance

[Thunders]

 ChannelThunder with our luck, we go to sleep an then we get a huge storm or something 

[ChannelThunder]

 Thunders I was thinking about setting an alarm for about 4am, but if you look on the satellite now, things are taking a turn southwards it would seem...

[viking_smb]

 ChannelThunder you're right mate 

[viking_smb]

it is also starting to die down now as well and it is definately starting to make a turn south 

Edited April 3 by viking_smb

[Thunderspotter]

 ChannelThunder haha I had the same idea. I don't really think it's worth it especially as I'll be in school for more GCSE revision tomorrow. If a thunderstorm is THAT good, it'll wake me up... at least I hope

[Thunders]

 viking_smb  it could use less energy and leave more for any thunderstorms that do form in the channel 

[ChannelThunder]

Touch-and-go whether it grazes Cornwall and southernmost tip of Devon, if it sustains itself that long 

[Thunders]

Just starting to show on netweather radar 

[TJS1998Tom]

Looks like South West about to get slammed with heavy rain, this year feels like its been more thundery already and were not even at Summer yet

[Thunderspotter]

It's been a good time watching the storm in the Atlantic (on the radars lol), but the risks aren't enough for it to be viable for me to stay up. Night everyone, good luck to anyone in the SW staying up to watch it. 

[Thunders]

 Thunderspotter good luck on your gcse revision, and I hope you get to witness astorm somewhat soon 

[Thunderspotter]

 Thunders haha thank you. Hopefully we'll all get a good storm sometime in the near future 

[ChannelThunder]

Now the radar's in range, you can quite clearly see the southward shift in the heaviest precip. that myself and @viking_smb alluded to an hour ago. Shame! Still, I'm not writing tonight off entirely, but definitely going to bed now! Radar check some point in the early hours no doubt when I awake probably needing a pee

 

[Thunders]

 ChannelThunder  yep, i hope you guys in the central south get some, I doubt the south east will get any, just thundery rain tbh 

 

I know this probs ain’t right but I’ve got a good chance at 1 and a good one in the morning , most storms die off in the early hours tho 

Edited April 3 by Thunders

[Mapantz]

Pinks & reds dissolving 

[Thunders]

 Mapantz  what a surprise 

[Thunders]

If it keeps going southward, it’ll end up in Brest, another up question, what’s causing it to go south whilst we think the storms will go east? Sorry if that sounds stupid