Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[ICE COLD]

Another poor run from the ECM away from Scotland . Just more rain and mild for the rest of us . Depressing winter this has been . I’ll get jumped  on but I don’t care it’s poor for at least the next 10 days and that takes us to the 10th of feb . I’m usually positive and ramp away but this just isn’t going to happen this year .

[nick sussex]

The ECM resolutely maintaining the cold forcefield apart from the far north which could see something wintry post day 6 .

The models are very frustrating in that they refuse to deliver any decent trough disruption .

Day ten the low deepens over the UK . 

Overall  very underwhelming for the vast majority of the UK .

 

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240:

Pulls the cold south as the low clears to the east, establishing the Euro trough, cold for some time thereafter with nothing significant upstream to dislodge it.  

Edited January 31 by Mike Poole

[ICE COLD]

 Mike Poole yep day 10 better Mike but it’s day 10 again . The models have really dangled the carrot big time this winter with all the favorable background signals , the Met updates etc etc . Really hope we get a decent spell last half of feb for the sake of everyone’s relentless chasing this winter . 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM /GFS / GEM all amazingly agreeing around the 9/10 day of low pressure crossing from west to east bringing the colder air from the north to filter it’s way over the UK.From then on is anyone’s guess but finally looking to be the start of this long awaited northerly shot that is of course if the 3 models are correct at 9/10 days out.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Again I'm gobsmacked on here..far to many posts are becoming emotional based and that will cloud one's judgement! The ECM run appears to open doors further into the run and keep in mind this is beyond a week out and will be subject to much variation..this pattern could easily end up a couple hundred miles South! There's positives with the current mjo getting close to 8..the met update holds lots of promise,last nights 46 shows heaps of promise..yet we get a post of its all over! Basically frustration from not seeing the run you wanted to see...so you get emotional have a tantrum and make the wrong kind of calls! That's what happens when you get to attached to every op run..

This is before even the 50 ens have run and loads more data! Some need to think before hitting the submit button as it can make an adult appear like a child with ott responses to model output..take a deep breath look at other factors and data before committing oneself to losing your patience.

Personally I'm pleased with the direction of travel..it seems to be those who are far South and SE based who are gonna lose there cool over the coming days more than anyone. Big 46 anomolies coming up...I'm confident.

 

 

 

[Metwatch]

This could just become storm Kathleen in all honesty.

It's already a low as of today which is crossing Manitoba > Ontario tonight, and is then shown to phase with another low coming up from Bermuda this weekend to become one larger low. That would be quite a long lasting system if that reaches the UK by later next week...

Looks to be the main decider in what happens in the UK from next week. Perhaps a shift southward is still viable closer to the time if the Greenland blocking is underestimated, but we don't know for sure as of tonight. A lot of uncertainty for the models to deal with.

 

Edited January 31 by Metwatch

[Harsh Climate]

 ICE COLD

I wouldn't Micro Analyze every run. The ECM is decent. Colder air eventually filtering south, with the stubborn Azores high heading right back down towards Africa/ Southern Med.. Plus a lot of cold air to potentially tap into across Scandinavia/ Russia.

This is a common theme across a fair few models and assembles as we head into mid month.

Some absolute crackers in the GFS assembles, there's nothing to say one of those runs won't come to fruition!

 

We are heading in the right direction, people need to look at the big picture rather than hoping for the perfect run from a needle in a haystack (1 run that will likely be much different 12 hours later...)

[blizzard81]

The models are struggling with timing and the southwards extent of the cold. This situation is always difficult for the models. How fast the atlantic low traverses the atlantic and it's exact track will be very important. This all happening as we get a cold surge heading our way. The models struggled big style in the same sort of scenario in the run up to the mid Jan cold spell. So it stands to reason they will struggle again. 

[MJB]

 ICE COLD blocking is expected beyond Feb 10th, a few more days and we should see something IMO

[stodge]

Evening all

Recognising it's been frustrating to see a significant part of winter pass under benign mild nothingness but clear indications this evening of "doings a-transpiring".

The jet, slowly but remorselessly, is to be pushed south next week and that will turn our weather increasingly unsettled once again.

Into FI and I see another powerful warming forecast at 10 HPA but the trop response seems as yet to be finalised. It may well be messy - when isn't it - but the thrust of colder but settled conditions from the north suggesting the core of heights becoming centred more to the north than over Iberia.

That's far from a done deal but we are, to this observer, very much still in the game.

[ICE COLD]

 Harsh Climate  MJB something along the lines of the gfs control would be nice  

[Jacob]

 ICE COLD YES PLEASE  

[daz_4]

 ICE COLD The control is nothing to write home about. The uppers are not that cold and temps at 2m are quite high across whole Europe.

[feb1991blizzard]

Eps look good to 240

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters show a strengthening signal for cold in the extended.

T192-T240:

Here, cluster 1 follows the op run, well supported with 32 members, with a cold northerly to follow the low clearing east.  Cluster 2 a little slower.

T264+:

Clusters 2 and 3 build a strong block over south Greenland by day 15.  Cluster 4 has it slightly further east, cluster 1 retains the upstream ridge.  

Taking a step back from the individual patterns depicted, the trend towards stronger heights to the NW and a Euro trough are starting to match what we have been seeing on the 46 for a while now.  Details to be firmed up (a lot) later…

[MJB]

 daz_4 As the winds aren't coming from Europe , nothing to worry about  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

How's about a bit of the pink stuff folks..you know what I mean

[sebastiaan1973]

We must be incredible unlucky if we don't get a couple of cold days in the coming weeks  

Edited January 31 by sebastiaan1973

[Northern Sky]

 Mike Poole I've been following your updates over the last few days. It seems to me that the signal for some 'potential' cold of some kind is actually counting down roughly as indicated by the eps and 46? Do you see the ECM 240hrs as being consistent with that in terms of synoptic progression and timeline? 

[IDO]

The EC mean is uninspiring:

The GEFS mean is similar at D10 and goes forward as so:

Though a cooler spell post the current milder spell:

[MJB]

 sebastiaan1973 unbelievably unlucky I'd say 

[Mike Poole]

 Northern Sky Hi, yes, I think I do.  The ECM T240 leaves a good space open after the low clears the UK east for a ridge to build towards south Greenland, while the CAA on the lee side of the low establishes the Euro trough.  The fact that it is supported by 32 of the EPS is worth noting, and also it is consistent with MJO phase 7-8, with some lag.

One thing I’ve been watching lately is how the MJO is behaving compared to how it’s modelled.  Here’s the ECM 46 take today:

Now here’s the same plot yesterday, looking at phase 7:

The grey square is where it was yesterday, the cloud of red dots are the 1 day forecast from all 100 ensemble members yesterday, I’ve put a gold star roughly where the actual data from today’s plot goes - none of the members are near it!  And that’s day 1 - the models don’t seem very good at predicting this measure of the MJO at all, and on this occasion, it has consistently verified at higher amplitude through phase 7 than modelled.  This may mean that as we are now in the key MJO phases 7-8, the models may increase the signal for blocking as they get to grips with their own error on the MJO, and that might also bring the pattern change a little earlier.  But all looking very interesting from 10 Feb onwards, I would say.

Edited January 31 by Mike Poole

[Don]

 MJB

8 minutes ago, MJB said:

unbelievably unlucky I'd say

Indeed, but knowing the way things are now, I wouldn't be surprised!  Not that I'm saying I don't think we will see some cold next month, just very cautious!

[Metwatch]

NOAA 6-14 day charts from yesterday, haven't seen it posted much if at all. Below the 6-10 dayer, strong heights over Newfoundland, trough coming up to the UK:

 

Then the 8-14 dayer, showing the trough to reach us and be right over the UK. Heights still present around Newfoundland:

Edited January 31 by Metwatch