Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[damianslaw]

Marked differences between ECM/UKMO and GFS, although GFS is trending same way at 120hrs. ECM and UKMO build a stronger ridge over mid atlantic behind the current low pressure, ECM centres this to the north. GFS has played with blocking to the north and east at times recently, but instead blows up more low pressure to our west and nw. More model runs needed before it becomes clearer how mid month will develop, as said won't be clear until the current low clears away early next week!

Edited February 8 by damianslaw

[blizzard81]

 bluearmy Ukmo and ecm are very similar at days 6 and 7 though. 

[bluearmy]

 blizzard81 you won’t like the direction the control goes btw

imo, it’s Implausible that the ops are now going to verify at days 7/9 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

SSW incoming, QTR incoming, ECM signalling this…..keep watching, don’t give up the ghost….not yet

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Perhaps the Cfs has a late rescue plan for this pathetic winter?..the other models don’t seem to right now! …anyway, winter is fast disappearing and is very disappointing, some things never change do they?  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 TEITS agreed Dave….expect humdinger charts to build

 

BFTP

[syed2878]

 Lukesluckybunch   any ECM day seven charts looking wintry just like today’s 12 hours run personally I wouldn’t trust it. ECM. I have to say has been the laughing stock of this bust winter.

[virtualsphere]

 raz.org.rain Re. Iberian heights, worth remembering we're coming off the back of an unusually strong Nino event so it's not unprecedented...

They'll probably disappear at some point, the question is how long we'll have to wait... 

February?

March?

April?

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, WeatherArc said:

20 degree isotherm into southern France, surface temps there probably in excess of 25, could even get up to 30. 

That's just plain disturbing.

[nick sussex]

The  ECM and UKMO have shifted to a new evolution. Let’s hope this is the right trend and it accelerates because the alternative is effectively a long drawn out mind numbing stalemate between the Atlantic and high pressure to the east .

 

[Froze were the Days]

 Drifter Yes to further disappointment down the road...just to cap this Winter off. D10 chart if we get remotely close to it a prime example of anything or everything stopping the real cold getting to us from the north east.

[phil nw.]

 nick sussex

Yes the Euro models at least keep the cold air around the UK as opposed to the American models which favour the Atlantic keeping it milder next week.

It looks like a pattern change is  underway with height anomalies increasing further north.

It's a complicated picture,the Atlantic is slowing against signs of rising pressure further north and east. 

We can do without a protracted standoff,but it will take some days before we know where the pieces will fall.

Let's hope it gets a move on though.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

We can do without a protracted standoff,but it will take some days before we know where the pieces will fall.

See your point but that standoff could result in a coupled vortex buster and we could be right in business in about a month.

Edited February 8 by feb1991blizzard

[blizzard81]

 bluearmy I've never rated the control run tbh

The ecm 10 day mean has much colder uppers to our north east compared to this morning's. 

[Azazel]

 Summer8906 wish it would shift another 800 miles north tbf 

[Daniel*]

7 hours ago, Downburst said:

It's interesting you think the position of these transient anomalies have such a linear response. It may be as simple as measuring wind flows from a particular direction. It is much more complex than that. In any case I was responding to the fact that there is a north and south Atlantic and trying to remove some doubt on a simple geographical fact.

Frankly I don’t know what you’re talking about we have been seeing long drawn southwesterly winds from subtropical Atlantic which are much above average waters. The direction has absolutely everything to do with it, as I’ll say again SSTs are near normal to our west if wind blows from west it wouldn’t be excessively mild.

Edited February 8 by Daniel*

[Summer8906]

 Azazel in June, sure. Not sure about winter though!

[bluearmy]

Complications from the impending reversal around mid month makes analysis of week 2 modelling pretty worthless imo.  

[Daniel*]

Well this is the chart of winter… the split which appears favourable on GFS, is our best shot of getting a significant late winter blast.

[blizzard81]

 bluearmy Week 2 modelling this winter has been dire anyway. Plus the positive changes on the 12z runs this evening happen well within week 1.

Edited February 8 by blizzard81

[blizzard81]

Icon follows the trend of the ukmo and ecm 12z runs with less influence from the dreaded bloated Euro high at day 5 compared to it's previous run. Also the beginning of the all important pressure rise to our north west. Not there on the previous run. 

[bluearmy]

 Daniel* are you confident that the split on that run is sufficient to stop the Canadian segment hurtling back across the Atlantic after a very short period ?

 blizzard81 not really true - we’ve had at least three periods where week 2 modelling looked v wintry 

[feb1991blizzard]

 bluearmy I'm not Daniel but just haunch if that if it went a bit further it would have looked like yesterday's 12z in the strat, also  blizzard81 might mean dire as in poor model performance instead of crap for snow prospects

[bluearmy]

 feb1991blizzard fair re week 2 

 

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

are you confident that the split on that run is sufficient to stop the Canadian segment hurtling back across the Atlantic after a very short period ?

Well maybe I’m remembering wrong but I’m pretty sure Feb 2018 split looked very similar to this with one shard in NW Russia and other in eastern Canada. Of course 2018 was not the most durable but the issue I don’t believe was TPV it was NAO blocking becoming too west and retrogressing too much… maybe too much free rein is a bad thing. I think we had too much of a good thing then.