Snowynorth
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Posts posted by Snowynorth
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Just now, Mapantz said:
Anyway.. To a proper radar..
To France we look, especially early morning.
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2 hours ago, emotional rollercoaster said:
Well the last cold snap recently had higher dew points than the coming set up and it snowed that was from nw flow so I'm somewhat perplexed by -7 not enough to cut it we seen snow on the south coast in April from as low dew points
the warmer North Sea temps will help to aid in better convection and with cold air in place across parts of the U.K. I'd think that a ne flow or Arctic flow would be ideal for some convective snowfall.
although features running along the south depending how far south they slide then mixing out cold uppers could well be a feature.
but this mornings ecm and the gfs6z show the Scandinavian deep purples getting closer and closer to the uk which also could well set us up for better instability along with added bonus of frontal systems running threw the channel this also possible.
i got my towel out the ring I'm keeping hold of it until I see a complete breakdown of the cold signal.
In bold yes exactly what I said on my earlier post.
I just noticed your location, seems you're talking from an IMBY point of view, I'm talking about UK wide, big difference!
As I said, upper air temperature alone does not determine snowfall... You need to look at parameters at the surface and between 850hpa not just at the 850hpa temp..
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3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:
But its quite obvious Northerlies are to put it mildly shi*! for most of the areas that still have not seen any of the white stuff since Jan 2013- maybe the same places that have already had the goods will benefit again though, I just hope with an extended period of cold as mentioned by Ian and others, that this will allow us to finally tap into some colder air, in conjunction with a east to northeast flow so that the heavily populated regions further south can get their long awaited rewards!
Purely an example for the time of year. Northerlies have a much better track, if you get a decent feed/flow you will get less modification. You can get some decent features in northerlies still, not mildy sh*t as you said but they don't deliver to southern areas..
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42 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:
Totally disagree-6 850s from the ne will and can create some great convection and these will be snow.
also feel similarly this spell like feb 2008.
it is true that the Greenland block has been rather over modeled over the past few winters but seems to quickly decline to nothing more than a transition ridge although this time does enough to direct Lows se I'm certain the models will show more interest as we move threw this week.
with snowfall very possible in the south as lows swing through the channel like what's currently happening now.
although the uppers are way to high right now they do go low enough to allow snowfall to be possible north northeast eastern uk and later in the week possible streamers from ne into the se and even southern England as well as lows dragging easterly which might not be cold enough.
i think the northeast flow would most certainly be the coldest outcome
Hi ER
I think you're not understanding the point I'm trying to make.
It is not just the upper air temperatures that defines a cold spell or guarantees snow, it is also vitally important you have other variables favorable down to the surface.
freezing level, dew points and WBT's.
At this time of the year a north easterly or easterly without Europe being pretty cold is completely different to a an east or north easterly during December when Scandanavia and Russia is very cold.
The North Sea temperatures are warmer than average after a relatively mild winter, couple this with not so much cold pooling to the east then you will have significant modification when the air reaches the United Kingdom.
We would need to see much colder pooling to the east and much lower upper 850's for it to bring any significant wintry weather, as a result conditions at the surface would be more favorable, take the freezing level for example.
If we can somehow get a second bit of the cherry albeit with a better flow and Scandanavia/Europe cooling down with some very cold upper 850's the temperature gradient will be much greater with warm SST's which would more than likely lead to convective snow showers in such setup.
At the moment, despite an average of -7 850's this just won't cut it.
The perfect setup this time of the year would be a northerly!
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Just a typical cold spell, nothing unseasonal and nothing noteworthy.
Generally dry throughout the week, pleasant winter sun during the day with harsh frosts overnight.
Very little in the way of precipitation and for areas where precipitation is greatest (that area of low pressure) it will be of rain.
Then when the low pulls away and draws in a more easterly flow Europe isn't cold enough so what you'll see is wintry showers a majority of which will be of rain within 30-40 miles of coastal areas in the north, east and south-east.
Europe needs to cool down a lot for anything noteworthy later in the week which I suspect it won't.
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5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
Somewhat underwhelming the good thing is ECM has been keen to lead us up the garden path numerous times also the UKMO has a similar trait this winter the GFS on the other hand less so.
GFS has been shocking of late and the ECM has been the model that's managed to end up being correct..
I have more faith in the ECM than any other model and I believe again it will be the ECM that nails it.
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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
In terms of polar sourced air this is the boom chart of all winter -
If that's the case it highlights how desperate we are and what a poor winter it has been. Don't get me wrong we see colder air but the northerly flow topples very quickly on that chart!
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It is pointless at the moment looking into detail or even looking on each model run the snow risk/precipitation type charts.
The models do not have a firm grip yet so you would just be wasting your time chasing the snow, get the cold in and then look for features via high resolution models. The problem with the 6z is the jetstream. The Atlantic gets through because of the strength and orientation of the jet next Wednesday leading the system not to stall as its catching the jet and coming right through, 00z's had a weaker jet and better positioning. Always a concern when we have no favourable blocking in place.
I wouldn't look past Tuesday until at least Saturday and Sunday.
Shorter term there is of course a risk of snow showers for north sea facing coasts, more especially Scotland, NE England and Yorkshire/Lincs coast Sunday into Monday before high pressure cuts the flow off..
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18 minutes ago, Nick F said:
To avoid any confusion, there are 2 lows from GFS, one shallow one tracking across the south on Friday, snow on the northern flank of the precip (not to be taken literally) and another deeper low tracking on a more southerly track on Saturday which could bring snow further south as cold air undercuts from the north
Friday
Saturday
Friday's low most probably a damp squib for most IMO, away from high ground of Wales and N England. But Saturday could see a bigger threat of lowland snow as much colder air works further south on the back edge of the low clearing into the near continent. Subject to change this far off, but some white surprises at lower levels on Saturday not out the equation for now.
Fridays low would bring more of a risk than Saturdays, it is actually the other way around. You have the colder air undercutting better further north but I suppose as its not the south it doesn't matter..
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I applaud your efforts, and this possible correlation has been noticed elsewhere.
http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter
Thanks for your thoughts and thanks for the the link, I wasn't aware of this. So they use the AO thought as well. I have linked the NAO also but only works with AO values of under -0.70. All very fascinating to say the least.
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HI Guys,
I released an article yesterday linking strong heights in the Arctic during July, to cold UK winters. Also there seems to be a link to Strat warming's as the years linked had either a sudden stratospheric warming (major) or multiple minor warming's. All the information within can be found via the link but I must say going on my findings, 2015 certainly looks very interesting.
http://www.chorleyweather.com/strong-arctic-summer-heights-linked-to-cold-uk-winter/
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Do the results speak for themselves? Blocking and -ve AO signals do not necessarily translate to cold everywhere. Look at the CET in these OPI analog years. Dec 1977 = 6.3, Dec 1985= 6.1, Dec 1987 = 5.6, Dec 2013 = 6.3 so all of these are very warm Decembers with only Dec 2010 seeing extreme cold. I would argue that Dec 2010 was in a period of exceptionally low sunspots and other drivers all lined up to bring the perfect storm of cold. So although the graphic shows anomalous pressure heights over the polar region and a southerly displaced storm track over the N Atlantic I would argue that statistically from those years the risk is warm not cold for December in the UK and probably W parts of Europe. The rest of winter is another matter, but just wanted point out that all the hype about -ve AO winters is not all it seems.
Hi pbweather,
You seem to missing the overall point of the analogue. The years shown are for the winter period running from December to February not just December!!! Also as the winter period runs through from one year to the next, the analogue takes the year that Febuary ends in. For example, 2010 was in fact the winter of 2009/10 and 1977 was indeed 76/77 and so on.
As for the results, if you go back through the years in the analogue you will find that all the winters had at least 2 out of the 3 winter months, with below average temperatures and at least 1 month with well below average.
Regards,
Stu.
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Hi guys,
I've took all the sub -1 OPI years coupled with an easterly QBO and produced a 500 mb height anomaly plot for the winter period. The results speak for themselves!!!
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First time I've known spring start at the 1st of December. Bar a few hours hiccup winter has been bypassed here.
I think the atlantic will finally run out steam leaving us high pressure feeding us early spring warmth leading to false hopes of a decent summer.
i totally agree, I have done a little research on this and found that warm springs tend to produce weak summers ie colder and wetter. Vise versa if the spring is colder then the summer trends warmer. I think the solar decline will be apparent this summer and expect a similar pattern to 2009/10/11. This current pattern will change from mid march and i can only see the Azores high moving up and hence dry and warm. Cant see any easterlies forming.
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One word for this run BOOM!!!!!
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Some very interesting times ahead as far as cold lovers are concerned, a negative outlook on the AO coupled with a warming event that may split the vortex on the cards. Also it looks like a tri-pole set up developing in the north Atlantic. All good pointers towards a cold spell. I will say however that it maybe end of Jan into feb before we see any deep cold digging in!!!
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Like this run from the Gfs.
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Looks promising!!!!
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Xmas week looks cold to me. We will still be under low pressure dominance however due to a high pressure forcing its way in to acrtic from the north side ( Bering straight area ) it will force colder air in the low pressure nr the uk. As a big high pressure says dominant in Russia the low becomes near stationary and weakens but starts to pull in a northerly air flow for xmas week. We are not talking bitter cold but cold enough for snow and far from a mild scenario that everybody seems obsessed with.
Gfs, ecmwf,gem,jma all have this high pressure building scenario.
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GFS last few runs have a high pressure forcing into the Arctic. We may see some cold weather Xmas week as we get more of a northerly pattern as the low pressure are forced south. One to watch closely.
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Im gong for a northerly blast ( from a transient low ) with wintry showers in every major city so the bookies have to pay out!!!!
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Some interesting model runs today. All point towards a high pressure pushing into the north pole. One to keep an eye on with 4 models suggesting it
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Yes thats why I posted it. Just can't understand why it's run that outcome too many timesI'd be interested to hear other people's opinions on this.
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Cant get my head round the fact that the cfs keeps trying to push a high pressure over Scandinavia. I know people say cfs is inconsistent blah blah but it has regularly pointed to high around this region for x mas week. This model must have picked something up or else why would it show these runs!!!!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121006/run1m2/cfs-0-348.png?06
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013121100/run1m/cfs-0-366.png?00
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Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
The NMM models show sufficient mixed layer energy during the overnight period. Once this trough weakens we see another slide up during the early hours, could be very interesting for southern and south-eastern parts of England.