Snowynorth

Cant all be wrong about a disturbed vortex surely!!!!

Hmm CFS model goes for a block from the 18th of December through to next year!!! I know this is a unreliable model for specifics but the pointer is there. Be very interested in the GFS in the next few days!!! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013112600/run1m/cfsnh-0-534.png?00

Big ramp needed after this cfs run for xmas day. With uppers like that and low pressure near by snow is a gimmie!!! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013112600/run1m/cfsnh-0-714.png?00 http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013112600/run1m/cfsnh-2-714.png?00

Simon Keeling did state this wasn't a forecast just facts what the charts are showing!!!!

Looks like it will be under pressure in December. This chart would signify a weakened vortex http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112012/gfsnh-0-384.png?12

As for the Jamstec here is the chart from November 2010. Need i say more lol http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2011.1nov2010.gif

Interesting viewing!!! Thanks for sharing. It seems like as in 62/63 and 2010 that the vortex repels the attack of the highs in november and re organises itself only for it to get breached in December. We have seen some stress on the vortex this month yet as its November it repels. Hmm interesting!!!

Yes will be interesting to see the next couple of runs to see if it continues. Lets hope some other models come on board!!! Weird just posted the same thought at same time lol

That jamstec run had the whole of the northern hemisphere warmer or slightly warmer than average. This i cant see, the whole of the NH cant be above average. UK gets a slightly cooler look but i suspect this is a model run like many others struggling with the various factors involved in forecasting a sudden event!!!

Latest gfs run now suggesting a vortex split early December!!! More and more models picking up on this!!!

Yes ' undercut ' wrong term lol but you knew what i meant lol

One quick word on the model debate, I think we can all see that the models are having a very difficult time of it. One model suggest one thing and another model the other. What i can deduce from this is there is much uncertainty and wouldn't look past 7 days in that regard. However when a zonal pattern is apparent, the models tend to have no problem in 'coming together ' and agreeing with each other so the fact they are all over the place is very interesting to see and very difficult to predict weather after a 7 day period with confidence. Maybe we are going to get a cold period and the models are struggling with the pre blocking pattern and certainly don't have any fluidity on a zonal period or blocking. Were in weather limbo people!!!!!

I could be because the northerly winds would blow some milder air from the sea (sea surface temps will be warmer than inland temps) towards the northern extent and under cut the cold air inland.

a few days ago the the forecast said westerlies will dominate December, so they have changed their minds already lol

Dont worry i always believed the end of November had the real potential and more so of this model run. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-384.png?12

If the gulf stream stopped we would not have mild winters period. And the temperature drop would be 5° minimum in winter on average. The low pressures would not be half as potent as they are now and ice growth would increase towards Iceland. Not saying that the gulf stream has stopped, I just believe it has changed somewhat and has had an effect on our climate!!!

Maybe so but the hot topic at the moment regarding global shifts and the gulf stream reduction were not an issue in these periods. Comparing two periods of cold is useless. Like comparing Vettel and Schumacher, it cant be done, different cars different era. Tbh we may get a mild winter somewhere down the line but it isnt going to be this winter and any mild winter is now going to be isolated event to the norm. We have more science now then ever before and NOBODY has come out and said these colder than average winters are going away, if fact most say they will become more frequent!!! I don't base this on preference to liking cold weather, just using the facts available.

Personally the colder winters are here to stay for a while yet. The trend of winters in the 90s are well in the past. We have seen a global shift since 2006, not just the winter but summer as well. I understand that people want to get carried away with headlines like 'snowmageddon' and i agree a note of caution should be taken and all aspects of cold and mild should be taken seriously. However having looked at the way the models are behaving i thinks some have it nailed and others just cant process the blocking pattern. I think this winter has a similar vain as 2010 did tbh.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101129.gif 29/11/10

Gfs showing some promising signs now all of a sudden. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111306/gfs-0-384.png?6

it can vary but i would expect minus double figures!!!!

you will need to turn the heating on max!!!!

Quite similar to 2010 with Moscow having a mild October and even in November 2010 they only got properly cold in the last 3rd of November. So a similar pattern to this year. It will be interesting to see if Moscow get some extreme cold next 3 weeks. Charts are very similar to 2010 at present.

Funny that because i see no evidence of support for a mild December, in fact just the opposite. I cant see Russia being above average either!!! Seems a little cfs dependant forecast to me!!!

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.11.8.2010.gif Same time ( 8/11/2010 ) http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.12.30.2010.gif End of December 2010. Not exactly a 5 month span!!!!