Snowynorth

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.9.9.2013.gif http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.10.10.2013.gif http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.11.11.2013.gif You can see from the sept/october/november that we have an evolving tripole!!!

We got extreme cold values end of november/begining of December 2010 so a fully established tripole is not the only factor in the science of extreme cold over the uk. I think the tripole is growing, there is evidence to support this. Also i am seeing other little pointers that push us below average winter wise. There is no stand out evidence to support a mild winter. A lot of reasearch i have done for this year regarding trends ect is on a par with 2010.

heavy hail showers around in the north west, could have had some impact

I know we have a lot of factors to include for this winter but it seems we have a tripole set up growing, which i believe has a big influence on our winter!!! http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

We broke the temperature record in 2011 for october with 29° so warm autumns don't precursor mild winters, in fact just the opposite i have found. During the last period of cold winters we have had rather warm Sept/Octobers. Until we see some significant evidence of sustained trending, one can only assume we are still in this cycle of blocking patterns. The models still suggest a blocking pattern forming. Maybe not as extensive as recent years but the trend is still cold or at worst average. From what i have seen in the models high pressure will again dominate the northern hemisphere with well above average temps for the acrtic, disturbing the vortex and leading to some stratosphere warming as previous years have shown. How strong it gets is usually down to timing with the tropical wave cycle!!!!

Moscow was just as warm in 2010 this time of year. This year beat it by 0.3°. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00220101101.gif

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/1394456_549206121831256_1119210065_n.jpg Seeing some similarities from this year and 2010. Seems we are still in the pattern of recent winters. I see nothing to suggest otherwise!!!

flash of lightning around southport way again

I can tell you now that the squall we had was gusting well over them figures. I person from preston also said the the gusts wasnt so bad so it seems that bowing in the radar was indeed a severe gust event but a localised one. ive seen severe gales round this area and this gust was prob worse. ive never seen rain blown about like that!!

To be honest i think its just a train of heavy showers, a squall usualy has a very sharp edge to them on radar where as this has a messy look to it!!!!

Estofex are a free service at end of day and i couldn't do what they do for free im certain of that. Everybody has different takes on weather forecasting and i take their views on board when i look into forecasting. The weather is fickle we all know that and no amount of money/computers can forecast certain events. Just ask a certain weather man, ( sorry to mention it ) but we are getting better. Nature just has a habit of reminding us that we are not in charge!!! Anyway bring on the storms im waiting very patiently so pls come my way!!!!

Train of showers flying in from the south west now this is the area of interest not the rain we have just had that was just warm frontal precip.

The warm front has already passed and we are in the warm sector at present in a very big moisture filled area. The way i see it is a cold front is approaching later to be the menace. This cold front drops south overnight and decays and becomes a warm front that pushes back north on sat.

Totally agree i just think there is a lack of evidence to suggest it was a tornado. I only live 15 miles away and we had the worst squall ive ever seen so i can see why people think it could be a tornado with the way it just blasted in. Its good to see this type of weather getting air time even if it is 'beefed' up lol.

Nothing on radar to suggest it was a tornado and more like a wind gust event to me. More like a bow echo wind gust. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=4508958966922&set=a.4508951846744.183214.1379016721&type=1&theater

nope!!

Thats the nature of the beast with storms!!!! Unpredictable To be honest i think the rain will be the sour puss tomorrow i cant see storms blowing when there is so much precip about. Will be one to follow in the day. Any breaks will fuel but forecasting were the breaks will appear is anyone's guess

http://www.estofex.org/ Looking ok for some action tomoz!!!!

Poor wheelie bin gettin knocked over and the guy in the car never got out, Shame lol!!!!

Vid from squall.

well that was mental, its was a squall alright lol. Sky went green then instant white out and the wind gusts must have reached 70mph!!! got vid ill post soon

Think a huge squall line is developing from north wales to south coast we may just see a little action!! Anybody else see the huge squall line developing from north wales to south coast

Think it will get increasingly unstable as the day progresses, the south are experiencing it now as the cold front pushes in. Its all moving north so plenty time yet for developments!!!!

2 areas of interest at mo the rain band nr north wales seems to getting more linear and there is a good dry area evolving in the midlands now that should kick things off!!!

They seem to be firing along the cold front in the warm sector at the moment. I think that trend will continue as the cold front pushes north!!!!