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Check out the position of the high and where the approaching fronts meet (the boundary layer) This is where the advection is at its strongest a band of say 30 - 50 miles wide. We have a warm front projected to swing in over us rather than the south west and a potentially resultant short wave which tends to push more moisture aloft on a more local level. At night the temps should be a little colder which will help. If you re run the beeb forcast you will see that the white (snow) intensifies as it gets over hampshire then fizzles out as it runs into the high which tries to kill of the precipitation by absorbing it in parts. Lows evaporate and disipate wheras highs are relatively stable air masses. Blah Blah

Hey Slb that bloke is a spoiler Check out the sat picy it shows humongous amounts of moisture (white stuff) pressure is pretty low at 963 mb so pretty unstable air about A short wave running up the channel so a little extra rush hour bonus Low pressures are notoriously unpredictable at the now cast, the blighters never go where you want them to. They often whizz off to the right into France. So if this baby goes straight ahead its game on for 15cm +

OK Slb try this then BBC online video weather from Elizabeth Saary updated 8.42 pm Edit : Sorry I should have added : Tell him to keep panicking

Evening Lamp Watchers As folk are a tad subdued thought I might spice things up a little so have copy and pasted a post from GP (GOD in weather circles) You will find it under General Model Output Discussion 13.38 approx All together now ALWAYS LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE OF LIFE ...............dedum dedum Indeed Paul, the 06z NAE and NNM have trended towards a solution where the low approaching from the SW develops a short wave which cuts SE and becomes quite slow moving acoss the Channel. There is potential for sustained moderate intensity precipitation over 12-15 hours from SW england, much of Wales and central southern England (NMM slightly further north). The circulation developing around the low has 850 and 1000 hP winds from the South-east and east, becoming northerly as it pulls away eastwards. This drags down some of the colder air to the north and 850 values are no higher than -2 C with dew points below freezing throughout. That looks like a substantial fall of snow for large parts of the SW. A transitory ridge topples in on Thursday which should enable the snow to persist for another 24 hours before the next trough drops in from the Atlantic bringing snow on the leading edge before turning to rain. The ECM is less convincing about the short wave sending it quickly SE and much less precipitation whilst the GEM has everything a lot further south which would take the snow threat further south. Longer term, both GEM and GFS ensemble mean guidance suggests a significant block to develop over Northern Scandinavia days 11-15 resulting in something of a standoff situation with the UK stuck in a transition between mild air to the west and colder air to the east.

Night

Snowing more heavily here now and the radar has quite a dollop on it although right on the extreme edge. Struth I must get some shut eye soooon

Only if it stalls in the right place. The flow on the extreme leading edge is more south easterly whereas towards the centre of the low the isobars are tight and swing round from the southwest. Fred is one half of the Roger J Smith team that predict their thoughts 2 months prior to the event based on Moon phases and tide pulls together with solar activity.

If it stalls then its game set and match to Fred (Blast from the past) and shades of 63.

Looking at the projected charts for around Wednesday there is a large low approaching the southwest. It is possible if it comes in slowly it will get a feed from the cold continental air off that low to the south east and feed in lots of moisture to us potentially as lots of snow. However if the low rushes in then the winds will swing to the southwest which will have atlantic air that may be warmer. Then it will depend more on mixing at the boundary of the high sat to our North East. All to play for

If you take a quick look at the rain today (meteo group radar) you can see the snow precipitation forming out of nothing as it comes in off the north sea. Lookes like the Northerners and Irish are getting quite a bashing.

Advection - A mixing of moisture in this case not dissimilar to convection pulled from the ocean . Watch clouds forming as they travel in land ,the moisture gets pulled aloft as it hits land and forms clouds. Unstable air rises much quicker and depending on temps in the upper layers rises until reaching freezing levels and condenses and falls as snow etc. Blah Blah

Looking at the radar it appears to be advecting off the Eastbourne coast. Leading and trailing edges more intense. Interesting to see what gets generated off the Dover straights and up through the Wash.

Hello slb Good to hear that. Still granular here quite unexpected so just goes to show all to play for over the coming days if synoptics hold up. Main bulk seems off the Thames estuary ENE direction.

Evening All Snow has just arrived in Andover this last few mins and has gone from nothing to jusy below moderate although flakes are a bit granular. Seems to be pepping up as it travels West. Just off outside for a true visual . I may be gone sometime. Cheers

Snow just arrived here in Andover so should be at Beacon hill in say 30 mins unless that is we nick it all first. Cheers

Pass me that Gas oven !

If you want extreme optimism follow Freds forecast (Blast from the Past) together with Roger J Smith. They follow an off the wall approach which I find interesting coupled with Sun and Moon activity. Even though many scoff they are not so different if at all to controversial Piers Corbyn from WeatherAction.com who predicted this lot 6 months ago. OK when he is wrong boy is he wrong. But when he gets it right one cannot just ignore it. Worth a look.

Thats the spirit IsleofWightSnowGirl ! Check out the next batch of 3 lows potentially forming to the left of Blighty. Could be a mega around Wednesday

Ok if anyone wants a bit of re-assurance go to BBC site and watch/listen to Rob Mcelwee. Sensible bloke. So high ground up to 20cm and hampshire basin (not armitage shanks)low ground up to 5cm or bugger all. But as the event has got ever nearer we are almost at the nowcasting stage and amounts have gone up so come morning we may have 20ft drifts and be looking to escape with snow shoes from second story windows. Get out those old tennis rackets.

Hi slb A little tip, the bigger the glasses the bigger the flakes ! Cheers

Evening All Havent been in since last winter. For all of those looking for potential precipitation check out http://www.meteox.com in association with windseekers link to the met office above. The real obvious difference being that one is projected forecast and one is really happening. If you mentally superimpose the 2 you can see that the cloud spinning over the continent has white cloud on the right hand side coming up towards the top. Remember lows spin anto clockwise in the northern hemisphere but the whole system is moving potentially in a ENE direction. This is the key, if it does something unexpected such as turning left and heads north then the synoptics change which is what catches the met office forecasters out. (remember last years dump over somerset that was due for hampshire. The whole lot turned more northerly at the last minute and we missed out big styley) Check out the frontal areas that is where the little ripples appear in a system and see how they rotate in relation to the system position and it then becomes a bit clearer as to whether we catch a dump or not.Timing is everything here and explains at this stage why kent has just seen 20cm plus this past hour or so. Obviously there are additional factors such as lows being forced up over the top of the high or just skirting by. This has a bearing on snow activity. Also remember as 2 systems colide they produce a tightening of the isobars which in turn speeds up the wind flow and determines the direction of flow and blizzard like conditions. But as others point out No precipitation No snow. So stick that little lot together and the whole thing is up in the air. Cheers All

Met office update to snow on higher routes here in North Hampshire. Looking at the Sat24 radar the centre of the low appears to be heading East or slightly ESE. Rain at present with the odd ice crystal.

Bit of a bun fight breaking out on the model thread so thought I would come here for a bit of respite :lol: Met office site have updated a snow warning for North Hampshire so Game on again for the n th time. The number of folk saying the low is further north then its further south then its further north again. Think some are confusing the front that passed through before the actual depression. Talking of which I have a headache :lol:

BBC website had just been updated and snow for all south of........ Birmingham with exception of cornwall and far southeast on Monday night in to Tuesday. So any school folk about get the sledges on standby B)

Just seen the latest BBC forecast from Jay Wynne and they are going for heavy snow covering the whole of the south on Monday night up as far as................Cheltenham. So here we go again . Eyes down game on.