snowlover2009

Don't worry, they will be back in the papers next month for June, for what could be a cracking month, claiming heatwave etc. Makes you think, that they only forecast things for the sake of it or go overboard or half the time it is wishful thinking.

16.7 for me please, it is going to be a very warm one, dry too and it all kicks off around mid week next week, with our first high pressure from the Azores, linking up with the high over Europe, just like last nights ecm and just recently, the 12z gfs. July will send alarm bells ringing, people won't expect June to be just the beginning! August to be the decline of summer from middle I would think.

You have bypassed dinner and cut to the chase? What about autumn, I can imagine an autumn thread, but winter thread? I would wait till around Mid summer(last years was made around then), like the spring thread was made at the start of the year, 3 months beforehand. Anyway early indications for AUTUMN on cfs show: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif September Unsettled, with some blocking to the north and low pressure around the uk and the south, could be cool at times, but also mild at times looking at those anomalies. October, dry and cold at times, relatively cool/cold by the looks of it. November- Neutral atm, but the indications a few days ago showed a similar anomaly to september, with the blocking a bit more intense and the blue anomalies stretching over the azores, maybe another cold november. I think an unsettled and wild autumn could be on the card though, with us gradually sliding into the cold and an early winter.

I like the sound of this, it is extremely rare to get these sort of summer forecasts, net weather have been near the mark with these summer forecasts, for instance, the past 4 summers, they never called for any really decent summers which they were correct on, last summer was not too bad mind you, best out of the last 4. It makes me wonder,we need to get a wet autumn, but if we don't then, I do think the chances are, winter will once again be similar to last year and the 2 years before, which were very dry and cold and that would be very serious. So we really need a wet autumn, besides I would love one, can't beat a good old stormy october autumn day.

Dream on. Charts not showing those 'raw easterlies' in FI now, so you move onto something else and start with more nonsense.

I said the same thing on TWO a couple of minutes ago. I reckon we could be in for another record breaking month this year, whether it be hot, cold, or wet. I mean to get a recording breaking cold december on the back of the warmest ever april and it only being in spring, I think we could see some big records months being slashed. Anyone agree?

realitively off topic, but what would the landscape, grass, fields, look like if it was to be almost as dry as the spring we are having? I mean there would be no fields surely that are proper British green grass? All grass and gardens would be dead.

TBH I do not know what to think, but I think it is going to be an extreme of summer, whether it is very dry or very wet like 2007 and 2008. But, you are only telling me not to write it off because you want it to be a good summer. It is an instinct anyway, I think it is more likely to be wet, if may is also very dry, then that would mean we would be in the running for one of the driest springs on record and then it would be unusual to get a very dry summer, it can happen, but again, after a possible record dry spring, the rain has more chance of coming than ongoing dry weather. Although in my eye last summer was the best out of the last 4, it was still not one of the best even after another dry spring. I think, there is the potential for either a good start, then rapidly going downhill or a wet start, then better weather in August. I do read GPs posts and some others and get some idea of what summer could be like and also look at lrfs, but that is it. But, no real reason, I think it will be an 'extreme season' for the uk in general, either really dry (coming off a dry winter and spring, which would not be great TBH) or a washout. I think summer will run in the direction of one of those. I am on the fence TBH with you, yesterdays post was a bit out of place. I may have read too much into the charts, but there is an awful lot of ugly looking blocking and high pressure to the north and it looks awfully scary, reminds me of the you no what summers- LOL. Of course, recently, rain has just kept downgrading near the time.

Blocking over the north and Greenland, would not be brilliant at all for summer. Would potentially be a washout of a summer. My thoughts on a decent summer since 2006 has changed dramatically recently, I am calling a very wet summer to be honest. The best of the weather to the south-east of europe, I don't think the rest of europe will escape it, we saw how wet it was in Spain so far this April.

Is that a genuine prediction or are you just mucking around, that would be astonishing, Although I can see the first part of the month having the most unsettled weather, although I don't expect it to be a washout by any means. Scattered heavy showers and downpours I guess, I can see the models trending to dryer weather again, they were going for a cooler second half to April, and it could not have been more wrong.

It has been amazing this month, it has been better than all the past 5 augusts, including august 2006 and even some of the other summer months from the last few year, for dry, sunny weather and I would take this April over any of them! Only 2 days of measurable rain, astonishing! Infact, about 5 days of measurable rain since March! I love these sort of months when they break so many records and are really memorable , like the recent December too. March was brilliant too, mostly for dry weather IMO. I hope we get a proper scorching hot summer month with massive thunderstorms!

13.6c another very warm spring month, I just have this feeling?

I hope monday, tuesday next week has some potential of storms, I am working 3-11s on fri, sat and sun! I think most storms take place between 3 and 9pm. I am working 9-5 wed, so hopefully will catch onesthen.

huh what are you talking about? The fissure of counter back manifolder has changed if you look closely... The established wherebouts is all to play for if you follow?

I have to agree, 76 sounds too good to be true, I think the summer will be better than 2010 and tbh that was the best since 2006, even if we did have a poor july and august, they were nothing compared to previous ones. I think we will see quite a wet may, with at least a week of reasonable weather or noteworthy, start of June will follow from the wet May, June I think could be similar to 2009, maybe slightly wetter. July and August, possibly some amazing summer weather.

I suppose the prediction of a dry summer, would take torrential downpours into account? If the prediction was, a warm summer with above average rainfaill, one would imagine, the reason for it being predicted to be wetter than average, would be the intensity of the rain and not the frequency of rain? I suppose it could be the other way round though. Basically does a predicted dry summer take into account, the intensity of downpours or just the freuqency of rain?

You know your stuff I suppose as an established member I have no evidence or sources on why, but I think we will have a wet autumn all round from October to November. I have no idea on winter, but if it is like the last 3, then it will be possibly another dry one, I am speculating another cold winter once again, with the cold lasting longer than the winter just gone. If we see El nino developing at the end of the year, then I guess you could call that one piece of the jigsaw. I am getting carried away now...

June to me, was always looking the most unsettled and to some people, but I wonder if we may be lucky to see a reasonable June? Then we also have July and August which are looking decent, well from my perspective, people's opinion and going on what Lrfs are showing.Going to be a hell of a lot of water shortage

Im thinking based on some things I know, that if La nina weakens through out summer, we should get a better late july/august? If we can keep a weakening la nina, maybe we will get another very harsh november/december period once again,maybe if we are lucky, we could see a weak el nino start to develop? Just a thought? Odds are in favour I would imagine, considering how long we will have had la nina, chances are it will weaken and chances are that an el nino should develop, but probably later in the year and it should be weak to start with. But that is just based on a bit of my knowledge, I could be wrong, it is just a rough guess, but I do think, summer could be very wet at stages and the end of the year atm will have some moments.

thank you for your help. I guess, when we have had quite a few rotten summers in a row, people including me, usually take it that the summer was nothing more than average or cool temperature wise.

well it is my opinion, i dont care about the satistics or if we are due a cold april, I am talking about summer, and the only decent stand out summers were 03 and 06 from the last decade, not much, which is why i think we are overdue some decent summers, maybe not record breaking, but safe to say they were dry and reasonable with heatwaves every couple of week. A summer like last year would have been brilliant if it did not go downhill, which seems to be the norm, like 2009 too here.

Personally, I think we are way way overdue a good, hot summer like 2006 and 2003.

Well the pattern last year was similar to 1976 through spring and summer, but 1976 never had a November and December like the ones just gone! I like to pattern match sometimes, but these are the sort of things you need to remember. Saying it is similar to 2008? Does not mean nothing, there is other factors with the la nina state etc. However, this January has been very average, not too cold, not too mild, Jan 2008 was very mild and wet! Jan 2008 was a very typical January like in the 90s and 00s. However i would not say know to to spring 2008, wasn't that the spring with the hot may??? It was also the year with 2nd wettest summer after 2007 wasn't it? I am worried though, summer blizzard posted all the recent years that match this years la nina pattern and it included some of the worst summers and 2007 and 2008 i think? What is more worrying is the tendancy for southerly tracking jet is much stronger and more frequent, we know this from the recent cold november and december on record and winter 2009/10 and these were after wet summers before 2008. If anything it could be similar to 2007 and 2008 or slightly worse. However if this the jet ends up so far south like recent winters, the channel lows and big rain deluges may not track right towards us, as the jet in 2007 and 2008 was constantly over us or just around the channel I think making it frequently wet. I am really split to what could happen, one half says a dry summer at least or a wet summer, with one or two heatwaves. Got a good feeling about April and May and maybe the start of summer.

Recent years and experience in my area for spring/summer weather is the usual dry and sunny april with the warmest temperatures of the year in the high teens at times. A couple of rainy days in april, May warm and dry again with the odd week of crap weather and a week of notable very warm condition. Summer approaches looks to start off good and gos down the drain at the end of June and you do not see summer till the next year or until September, however we did not get much of an extended summer in September last year either. April, may and June here were fantastic. Particularly June, i remember going for my job interview and going to meet the managers to sign papers and agreements, health and safety checks, and walking home in the clear blue skies and warm evenings! When I started my job around mid june, the weather just seemed to be constantly great for once!

I think if will be a very dry summer and have the potential to be hot at times, I think the start of spring will be quite unsettled and cool, I think the spring will be an odd one with cold giving way to hot in a few days and vice versa, I don't particular like that kind of weather or pattern, when you want to go out and enjoy the sun and the next day it is cold. I think a classic summer, with thunderstorms at times, but nothing like 2006 and 2003 with records and 38c being recorded. Which ever way, we will get a decent season out of the two at the least, it is rare to get a poor spring and summer, even 2007 saw a decent spring, but it was also a crap summer and the worst.