snowlover2009

Based on the models, I think it is quite unlikely we will get those sort of temperatures, it looks wet to the north, better to the south, so I guess as you go south, after the main rain area, you will have more in the way of cloud, but also some sunshine, further south you go. I don't know what is much in the way of summery weather, a couple of nice days next week for the south, sounds like the average August of the past few years. Ecm has putter a spanner in the works.

I wonder how cool it would get if ecm came off? I think it is a fair bet that the first half of August is going to be disappointing, dare I second half, but I might be able to make some assumption on that, later next week, when we start to see the offering up to the last weeks of August. But I don't think it is too cracky, interesting set up though.

The models continue to look very dissappointing, ecm had pressure rise later in the run, but pressure would have to keep rising to benefit any sunny conditions and it would still be rather looking at the charts. All in all nothing to look at in decent range, if you are looking for summer.

Even January starting to get more high pressure to the north and is neutral, which is a good sign on the cfs. Infact that January chart look like high pressure across europe with a cold influence, the strongest part of the high to the west and north west.

No. Greenland high and north westerlies, I don't think that is good for anyone looking for warmth or dry weather? You are misleading people slightly, the whole run is unsettled, sorry. Of course if you mean 'looking good for unsettled weather', which I doubt. It gets better later, but not brilliant, but some fair weather I presume. Get rid of that Greenland high then I would agree, don't get your hopes up Gavin, it is too far out to take seriously as you say when it is unsettled, saying that ecm is still unsettled to 240, there is a trough on the 240 hrs charts. A brief ridge maybe then a slow decline of the high probably it has nothing to connect to over europe, well from what I can see and the low to the west of it would move on top of it. Too far out to take seriously anyway, so lets worry about the current weather. If the ecm was showing no blocking to the north and was a bit more flatter, then I would call it 'good'. The 240 hrs chart still has winds from the north, not directly of course, so some showers around. I am not saying that is terrible, but the majority of the run is terrible and the last chart is a lot better but not something to write home about.

You are WAYY to optimistic about todays models, it looks absolutely terrible for those looking for some warm, dry summer weather which I guess you are looking for, abysmal! Troughs coming in from the north east, with a huge block to Greenland, with hints of a pressure rise, only the fact that there is a Greenland high does not excite me, as any warmth or rise from the south would be brief till the Greenland High disappears. The gfs ensembles are the wettest of the summer IMO and the wettest before spring. Sorry, but to me it looks terrible. The gfs show some quite unusually strong lows out in FI, to be expected with the hurricane season, could be some interesting synoptics.

first charts i went to look at was the famous winter 0f 47!!!! I could never understand the other charts before the 1948 period.

Possibly the worst gfs run of the summer, of course most of it occurs in FI, but unbelievable charts showing up, some interesting charts IMO for August, could be some quite unusual weather charts. Flood would be an issue: http://nwstatic.co.uk/gf...0729/18/192/h500slp.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/gf...29/18/216/6hrprecip.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/gf...0729/18/336/h500slp.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/gf...29/18/336/6hrprecip.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/gf...29/18/348/6hrprecip.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/gf...0729/18/360/h500slp.png Actually gives me the chills looking at that chart http://nwstatic.co.uk/gf...29/18/360/6hrprecip.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/gf...0729/18/384/h500slp.png A ridge likely, but would be another undercutting undoubtedly, giving us another pattern like the above, especially with the jet to the south. All in FI, but whatever, an interesting scenario indeed!

The update basically paints the rest of summer as poor. But I am not surprised to be honest... I think we will have a similar scenario to last year, where 'autumn' starts slightly early, I am expecting it to be quite atlantic dominated for the second half and at times windy. July has not been as bad as recent July's, but if we do get a poor august, which looks more liekly than a good one, then Summer 2011 will follow the same trend as the last summers for me.

revising my cet to 15.0 now.

I am still shocked to see, people thinking the output does not look too bad, next week has a bit for everyone, but more predominantly unsettled. Even if the models suggest something building from the south like the ecm at 240 hrs it can't be good, when you still have a huge block to the north and low pressures sandwiched inbetween.

Are you talking about that area in the pacific what is covered in yellows and oranges?

nevermind...

the charts look fairly messy around midweek next week, so I doubt we will be experiencing any heat waves any time soon. With low pressure being shown to pep up here and there and blocking playing a big feature over Greenland and much of the north, I think it is only matter of time before we revert back to our July pattern. It looks likely we see some relatively nice few days of warm, July weather, the odd 'meh' days like we had here today, before lower pressure moves in. If you are looking for warmth and dry weather, the ecm would be pretty terrible for future weeks IMO, with all that strong blocking and messy atlantic lows etc.

It certainly looks like it could get very warm for a few days early next week, with a thundery breakdown. It is disturbing to see, what develops thereafter, particularly on the 06z and the ecm this morning, although not as bad as gfs. The jet really storms south, I think the warmest part of august will be the first week, but I don't expect anything special at all, after.

Of course it could happen, but what is your point? The fact of the matter is, it is not unnormal for new york to get very hot into the high 30s, it is very rare to get 41c, but then NY is likely to see more extremes in temperatures, what makes you think we should when we are not continental and don't have the same climate? Just because russia and America are getting huge heatwave, does not mean we should, there is obviously an explanation, but any heatwave we get it is only likely to be low 30s as hottest, the odd spots up to 35 every few times a decade if that. Our climate is different like it or not, end of. Yes new york is 12c above average or so and we can be 12c above average, but does not mean it should occur as often as other countries as we don't get that many extremes, particularly heatwise.

because most of us like to be realistic and not hope cast like your seemingly predictions? 20c for July and 17.5c? Well looks as though you could be a good 5c off that people are allowed opinions. Considering the last time we had a poor june and july, and a decent august was 1871, then there is your answer to the above. Maybe that is why we have had poor Augusts? also you are talking about other parts of world having hotter weather than usual, well they are continental climates, so you expect, we are not! so we are lucky to get a decent week of hot weather in summer.

14.6 for me, what was last years cet?

Stop relying on run, yesterday on the 18z, it had no extended spell of settled weather and I am not over confident that next week will be wall to wall sun and warmth to be honest. Troughs are seemingly pepping up and pushing high pressure to the west of us, like the ecm around 144 and into FI. The gfs ensembles, show alot more spikes too off late for August. I think next week is looking mixed atm, but may be improving and then who knows after? It is hard to tell when we are seeing different things being shown, so please stop taking one run for gospel and saying it is looking like a longer settled spell than what we thought, when there is no clear signal yet. The ensembles are all over. But one thing I will say, there has been a clear enough message in my eye from the models, gfs in particular, that Greenland blocking will continue, so undoubtedly we will probably see some more weeks like this at some stage in the next couple of weeks? Gavin D, it is alright questioning why people are worried, but at the end of the day, the models don't paint a clear picture of what will happen later on next week, as the handling of the high pressure seems to be getting modelled differently. That might just be my opinion, but like above, the ensembles are not clear to me. The trough from the north west, next week could play havoc to the weather if it digs too far to the UK or it could also help the situation in bringing more settled conditions. But I feel, the models are deciding differently on it.

I was not expecting the gfs to downgrade, but it has gone form high twenties to average temperatures and light rain and fronts to the north in just a few runs. I wouldn't imagine it would be wall to wall sunshine either next week, more to the south of course, but looks like the north will get some weak features or rain, maybe heavy at times. Not good to see Greenland covered in yellows and oranges, I would not get too comfy with next week just yet, anything could happen, but we have seen a few lows, pep up and spawn here and there, and just one spawning low can change anything? One thing for sure, don't expect anything remarkably good next week, I would say, a warmer week for sure.

I am getting the feeling August could be very interesting meteorologically and synoptic wise. Some quite 'extreme' charts pepping up here and there: http://nwstatic.co.uk/gf...10721/06/384/h500slp.png http://nwstatic.co.uk/gf...10721/12/384/h500slp.png All in realms of FI, but I think it could be IMO. Southerly tracking lows too. the massive amount of blocking AND very wet and autumnal conditions to the UK. It could get very interesting if all comes to verify, I think we could be looking at a terrible AUGUST once, the settled weather moves off, which I believe won't be long... Just to not, that last time we had a poor june and July and good August was 1871 what are your thoughts?

Rock solid, it was a huge outlier throughout. Got to add, the models are a bit further away from what they were showing yesterday, not as good.

Well, i was not just talking about cold chart, but sorry for jumping a bit. We do get this from OUR newer established members because I have seen it many times, remember frosty joe anyone? They struggle to fit in because they get overshadowed i guess.

We get it every week, something needs to be done or take action. It is like eagles dare.

We have it all to come this winter, imagine it. Our new, child like posters will be for ever bickering and squabbling over a poxy chart that probably won't ever see light of day. It is worse with the new less experienced members and there is a lot of them on now these days.... I have been on 2 winters on NW forum and gone through 4 winters as a lurker on here and never know anything like it in here. It is like a day care. Last winter we had people crumbling and cursing at each other this year, the exact same, only now there is even more members, which is strange for this time of year. God, imagine what it will be like come October, when the forum starts to get busier, Gavin will be busting his guts and claiming this that and other about charts. Jonathon going on about northerlies and goodness knows what else.