snowlover2009

Are they analogues for winter above?

The thing is, even thought we have had 3 cold winters, I can see a lot more potential of a cold one than a mild one.

I don't see how current patterns would have anything to do with the coming winter, it is only July. Infact we still have northern blocking as ever. The general trend is for the la nina to strengthen and weaken into late autumn/ winter.

I made an autumn thread, but it got deleted, because we have 'beyond summer' thread, yet I had a poll and wanted to make the discussion different, e.g favourite part of autumn, what you like and dislike, what you would like to see, totally different to beyond summer thread. anyway here are the cfs charts and some lrfs : http://www.jamstec.g...orecast.html.en http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif I don't know which autumn, early winter I prefer best, the first one looks better for December, with a similar anomaly to last December, which is extremely uncanny, ok it is not dark red like last December but I am sure you can back me up and say a dark anomaly does not mean more extreme patterns. Of course it would mean a high possibility of extremes, but I guess weaker high pressure to the north would mean great masses of cold? What is even more uncanny, is November is also looking distinctly cold, with the second link showing dark blues over Europe and high pressure to the north for October. I am really looking forward to September, as that is my favourite time of this forum, as people start to look towards winter, and autumn. Apparently the second link is best: On the second chart, would that November anomaly be cold or mild? Can I say too, the december anomaly on the second chart looks a lot like this, do you agree: http://www.wetterzen...00120101217.gif Does anyone think the coming november, december period will be anything like last year, I know that it was the coldest in 100 years, but with the distinct changes of our climate these last few years with the jetstream etc, I wouldn't be surprised. BTW I did think the second chart with december was a good chart, but the first one shows a potential scandi high stretching from scandinavia to the UK and linking to greenland? Btw I think you should make this thread into an autumn and winter thread? You skipped Autumn, so I bet people will be making comments on it.

http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif Looking at the anomaly for december, it looks very similar to last December. However the anomaly is less strong, but I guess a strong anomaly increases chances of extremes, however a weak anomaly may mean a lot more cold, if you have a strong high pressure to the north, I guess it could mean there is more mild weather than really cold weather. A weak high to the north increases the cold potential? What is even more uncanny, is November is also looking distinctly cold, with the second link showing dark blues over Europe and high pressure to the north for October. I am really looking forward to September, as that is my favourite time of year as people start to look towards winter, and autumn and what might.

What has the mild weather in February got to do with a warm winter this year? Anyway, have we got any data for the upcoming winter, like qbo patterns etc? A weak La Nina looks likely, so that is a good start.

The models showing our unsettled potentially thundery weather for this week and thereafter an improving situation a slow improvement, with a potential does of more summer weather, whether it be dry or warm. To me this summer is shaping up very different to 2007 to 2009, 2010 not too bad but a declining summer none the less. IMO the rest of summer will be a better version of summer 2010 for July onwards, but not perfect, not a classic, but warmer, August last year was quite cool. But anyway, just for fun, for those who are interested, here are the cfs charts for summer and the rest of year, if you like northern blocking and cold you are in for a treat, people say they are as useful as chocolate fireguards and change, but they have been consistent for the Autumn period. They have changed a lot this year, more than last year, but the general pattern of what they are predicting is the same, with blocking to the north, but the strongest blocking etc has changed. Once again November and December are eye candy, but it is still early to say what will happen, even though I have my own thoughts. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images2/glbz700Mon.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif I found two links, both different but show vaguely the same scenario dont know why there is two.

Do you read anything the mods put. your posts are being deleted by the stupidity constant posts of images of each run every 2 mins! Give it a rest! It is the same on TWO, you only just joined up and cluttering the threads over there. Infact, they don't allow your to post blown up pictures, so can you just quit it! Why can you not post the links, or is it just to attract your posts! Sorry mods, but it really is annoying especially after being told the first time round and it has been mentioned before. We don't need the image in our face when we already see the runs, a link is more suitable. If i wanted to play catchphrase I would watch it or play it at home!

Well please make yourself clear in future, if you must know it was a good 5 to 6 weeks from the last week of november to the first week of January that we had a persistent GH and the current greenland high has been disappearing more commonly than recent summers and will return again this week. Anyway back to your first point there is obviously a valid reason as to why Greenland highs are more persistant in summer than winter or it is a coincidence. Anyway why does it matter, we have had some really good winters and months.

Don't use the greenland high as an excuse to complain about the Greenland high in summer. Many times in recent winters, the greenland high has stuck around for weeks in winter, not just summer.

What are some people talking about judging runs and saying that July will come in as below average, I am seeing upgrades and it looks cracking to me, the 18z prolongs the very warm settled conditions to the end of next week, which is reliable enough time frame and anything beyond that is not important as the warm spell has upgraded on the 18z till the end of next week. That would take us to the 8th July, with some missing out on rain for the first 8 days if it was to verify, a totally different July from the last 4 which just seem to be repeatedly none stop showers for the entire month. I remember July 2009 almost every day has some measurable rain with the odd 2 to 5 days dry. Sp if the 18z came off it would be a big improvement on all the last Julys as I don't remember one week of decent weather in any of them, not on the scale of the upcoming one with temperatures in the mid 20s possibly and I believe that 18z FI is nothing to worry about and will change. It looks a cracking start to July. Perfect temperatures bang on what I like, I wouldn't say no to the recent temperatures but it is going to feel very warm in the sun.

It is very humid and sticky here ugh. But a brilliant day we got 30c and now I await on potential storm through this evening, I bet the interesting part could be 7 onwards... 0

It is very humid and sticky here ugh. But a brilliant day we got 30c and now I await on potential storm through this evening, I bet the interesting part could be 7 onwards...

I agree, but I never recall any runs in winter showing -25 850s?

With 20 uppers, there is a good chance temperatures may get up to 34c IMO. I wonder if us here could just nab 30c? Definitely high 20s surely. What annoys me about bbc is with 10c uppers they predict temperatures of 28c on odd occasions when 10c isothern hits us, but when 20 isothern could reach the shores, they under play the temperatures, 26c in London? There is every chances more northern parts will reach that.

Wow that october anomaly looks very cold and wet to me, all those blue stretching from eastern europe to the uk, with higher pressure to the north of the UK.. The december one is looking tasty as well!

With Summer so far being a disappointment for many, I thought I would make an Autumn thread. IMHO, I am more excited about the prospects of Autumn than the summer(if you call it that) that we are having. I think it is safe to say June 2011 will not be a memorable one, but there is still July and August, while I hope to see an improvement, I cannot see the summer being anything particularly special. Anyway we had a Winter thread at the start of September 2010, 3 months before winter( I checked in my previous posts because I made many responses), it is June and we have passed the middle of June, so I don't see why we can't discuss Autumn for now, as I think many will be more interested in the prospects than the summer. Longest day next week, Tuesday I think and the nights start drawing in slowly So my punt and has not changed for a while now as I have been thinking about Autumn, is that it will be colder than normal, the second half of Autumn being the coldest, I have a feeling we will have a Greenland high particularly october onwards, september being the warmest month with average rainfall. I hope we don't have that annoying western based Greenland high or mid Atlantic high like last autumn, saying that look what happened in November and December. Here is a few lrfs for autumn, some even show winter if interested winter, which is too far out, but does looking interesting once again, but I think by September we can start to take winter lrfs more seriously, of course some people don't at all, but from what I remember the lrfs in the summer showed an averagish winter, then by September to december non stop blocking on the december anomaly chart: Anyway here we are: http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif Don't know which link we should be looking at, which is recent as both show upated dates http://cmdp.ncc.cma..../pred/en_cs.php If anyone can find the autumn forecast on here it would be a big help http://www.jamstec.g...esearch/d1/iod/ click 'seasonal predicitions' in the side bar for autumn forecast and more That is what I could find, feel free to add more and I will add them to this post, so members can see them. ALSO FEEL FREE TO USE THIS THREAD AS ANYTHING ABOUT, AUTUMN, POST PICTURE, YOUR STORIES, MEMORABLE WEATHER EVENTS IN AUTUMN OR EVENTS FROM LAST YEAR LIKE THE SNOW OR DISCUSS YOUR FAVOURITE FEELINGS AND THINGS ABOUT AUTUMN. LETS GET PEOPLE IN THE MOOD. Heres hoping for a lot of this: and a lot of wind! and less of this P.S mods, feel free to change the title or shorten it or pin it.

what worries me is the current solar cycle is supposed to be maximum, but it could be regarded as a solar minimum with the amounts of spots. I don't think experts expect it to get any better, so I can see coming summers and winters just deteoriating. I am looking forward to Autumn as that is the time people start to debate winter, role on autumn, much more interest than the summer we are having. I am no expert, but I agree with eye in the sky, the sun spots and solar cycles are effecting out weather and I think this is only things to come, it must be sun spots, as the decline of the sun spots in recent year has meant colder winters or winter months, 4 dire summers, this one ATM may join it. If a new maunder minimum or very low sun spots was to effect our weather, then the weather over the last years would be what we expect to keep happening and worsen. It also worried me that there is more factors than just sun spots have could have an effect on our climate, particularly in summer and winterm e.g. look at electric snow storm post above.

And still people look at the met check site after all these years? Seriously they showed snow showers for some areas last week in the night. I think some people use that site because they don't believe how unaccurate it is or just use it for hope casting because it shows something they want, just like the snow been shown last week. Not to mention the insane strong winds they predict sometimes. When has June this year or any June been forecast 10c all week as the high and just after the longest day, sorry but this is ridiculous and more fool people looking at that site....

Am I right with this: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FBNZpA7QWms/TeWOWHq4JWI/AAAAAAAAAN4/NYPG-IgjDOM/s1600/newsun.png Both pictures are solar maximum periods? If so, then it explains the massive concern. :o A very weak solar maximum on the right and thing is, anyone would guess the picture on the right is a solar minimum period. When do we expect current solar maximum to peak? Is this the current solar maximum, expected to actually happen or is it the next cycle they are talking about? Incidentally it is concerning, if they call the picture on the right a solar maximum...

Yep she does indeed, she is the Queen!!!!! Exciting times!!!

Oh man please be right!!! Sounds promising, so we are starting later than schedule I take it. Summer will quite possibly be under way good and proper for the second half of June. I like the sound of cold upper air digging into the atlantic, meaning one thing, the low pressure and cold uppers in the atlantic, pumping that warmth and hot air up to us and europe?

Sorry for taking it the wrong way. Heres to a great summer.

what does this have to do with my prediction whatsoever??? Considering there is others predicting the same as me??? what makes you think i based my predictions on the models! There is no need to degrade my cet because you don't agree with me, this is not how it works on here! I am more annoyed how you pick me out, out of many other members guessing the same cet as me or higher.

IMO i think those going a for a cool opening could be way off the mark, it would take a lot for the models to back track to a cool pattern, it looks nailed for a half decent start to the month, dare i say the perfect start IMHO. On another note was June 1976 the warmest on record? Btw my cet is changing im going from 16.7 to 17.2 please.