snowlover2009

Sorry I did not mean to call you childish LOL. I was trying to defend you, but you seemed to try and scrape everything under the carpet for next weeks outlook. But I know how you feel.

It is going to be warm next week and dry and sunny, maybe the off days or so, but it will be warm at least, so please stop degrading this possibility or trying to find an excuse to believe it won't happen, get over it PE! I defended you slightly about the last chart(cool chart at 240), but it is not to worry about just yet, when the time comes, if the chart comes to reliable frame.. I do agree with you on Gavin he is way too optimistic on the charts, like he is seeking ever hope on it being dry and warm, when the outlook still looks bleak, so he has no room to get back at you and I notice that he underestimates them, but lets not get into that

It was the same for you the other day when we had the the unsettled weather, so don't give that Gavin.... Looking out into realms of FI on one model for settled weather and plucking up charts left right and centre. The positioning is not good long term. It is better than the dross recently though. It would be warm as the uppers would still be warm, but it would steadily go down hill. But not to worry just yet. It is looking great though next week thankfully. Also no need to come back in October, as we have had the experience this week thank you and I wouldn't give up a bet for it to happen again some point in June. I still think it will go downhill as soon as that high moves out to the west....whenever it does of course.

I don't care of her thinking or predicting winter to be mild, but the 'evidence' she supposedly has is not the best in terms and sounds more dramatic than it is, like solar activity ramping up, which is not at all true. It could still be classed as low solar activity, with the so little sun spots. Correct me if I am wrong, but the poster used an el nino as an excuse to her claims, when there is not one predicted or even showing at all for this winter, by no means whatsoever. Also when she said she predicted this winter to be cold, I have reason to believe it was not what she expected, Jan was very average and Feb above average, so if she predicted a cold winter she was wrong? If it was 2009/10 winter, then fair enough. But the last winter, was half and half in reality, so it is very hard to know where the truth lies. Was it above average or colder than average? If it was colder fair enough, but I half expect the poster to have thought it was going to be cold throughout. Even if she was correct about it, how does claiming and bragging about it give her a good reputation at all and lead us to believe she will be right on it being mild this time round? It could be guess work or just a coincidence. I thought it was going to be a repeat of 2009/10 this year, but it only was cold for half the winter. So I was wrong

One thing, an opinion is 'i think' 'it is likely' 'IMO'. An opinion is not 'it will be mild' I don't how a 33.3 percent prediction of a mild winter has any credibility either. BTW I don't think my post is too harsh either, I am debating the subject. But when people don't back their posts up and claim things and menion 'an el nino winter', then it gets my gripe.

I don't see how because your 'supposed' reputation of predicting winters correctly, gives you the right to tell everyone how winter will be. By all means say what you think, but 'it will be mild' is not exactly good in terms! Solar activity may be increasing, but it is very low, when it is meant to be reaching maximum, there is so little sun spots, that it could be considered as low solar activity. Where is this blocking in the azores you mention, oh I see, there is none. Blocking in the atlantic, also fuels the chance of cold conditions to the uk as well, not just mild! Where is your actual hard evidence on any of the points above? I particularly want the evidence of 'it will be mild and wet and windy', a must please. This post is all coming from someone who is talking about El nino conditions this winter and to the added fact that all her 'points' are not backed up properly or are not as dramatic as they sound like the solar activity and blocking in the azores. Please don't reply back kicking and screaming because I have debated quite strongly, the consensus is that anyone who replied in here, has disagreed with you.

So you think we will get a mild winter. no offence, but you say we have a good chance of a cold spell like the one in november and december last year and then go onto say you think we will get a positive ao, which correlates to mild weather usually here?

Yes a slow improvement, but the ecm is kind of different in regards to the trough in the east, it does improve to the very end.

logically we have even better chance of a pretty cold winter throughout, more than last year, the la nina is being progged less strong for november and december. so really good signs IMO. I could be reading this wrong actually, i am not use to them.

Well, I am guessing we will go from neutral to weak la nina, at the end of autumn and early winter? I have read it would be very unusual or unlikely for a la nina to go moderate to strong and be stronger than the last winter, la nina. So I guess we could be odds on for a colder winter throughout this year, however if la nina did strengthen as much as last winter, we could see something similar to Jan and Feb 2011 I guess. Just read above, all multi models predict enso neutral to continue through early 2012, so they are not expecting anything strong or mdoerate? What do you guys think? BTW apparently qbo is expected to be easterly, is this good for winter cold? What does it mean really?

Well it is 14.6 here in Leeds. It is not impossible at all. I agree, I think the second half could be the worse part of the summer and the first part has not been particularly good. If something like ecm or gem verified, it would be very very hard to get out of. In june, when we had blocking, high pressure was weaker, due it being early summer, with stronger pressure into August and northern blocking, it could very hard to shift through the month.

Just like all the settled spells that we have seen in the models or experienced then isn't it? Yes, the high to the west ridges in, but we still have the north easterly on top of that, so it makes no difference to me. It is too far out to get excited about, especially looking at ecm, which was much more accurate about this spell of weather than the gfs. Any settled weather to me looks transient, and not exactly summer at its best, a high to the west nudging in to the uk does not excite me too much, it won't be especially warm or continental warmth and I believe we would get another low passing down the side of the high eventually. Onto the models, I think they look vile for the next days, I don't see these tentative signs of improvement?

You will change your tune this weekend and beyond, if anything the upcoming spell of weather looks a hell of a lot cooler than recent July's, most of them were still warmer than average, even when it was unsettled.

I always have to tilt my laptop when people posts those charts above, it is easier to understand, but looking from them, they look pretty vile for anyone who wants some settled and dry or warm weather.

http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif december looking ok, but january looks awful for cold. these charts are very good indicators, even if they get the set up wrong, they usually get grips on where the elements of blocking will be. Very very early, but last year in June they nailed december right up to december with the anomaly. It is way too out to take seriously, months away, but the december anomaly last year was nailed on without absolute fail from now to december.

I am just being realistic. Maybe it is the fact that summer, has not exceeded expectations once again. The charts look exceedingly unsettled, which paint a similar scenario to the last few summers, which worries me. I would rather someone not get hopes up, than not get their hopes up. But we will see.

Agree, for people saying we may get something warm and settled to the end of the month, we the ecm takes up pretty much to the start of the last week and from their it is still unsettled, so I would hazard a guess that it would be at least august, before anything notably warm and dry comes along, which I don't believe will happen. Once again, this is what I think,I am not writing off summer, because, one, I am predicting in respect what probably will happen and being realistic and, two, what summer exactly???

3 weeks of July? we are half way through this week and it is looking dreadful for next week and probably beyond that. So no use making out we have bags of time. You always seem quick to defend, when someone posts how unsettled it is because you don't like the fact that it is going to be. News flash it is and it is looking very wet and cool next week. Once august gets here, there is one month of summer left and to be honest after the last 4 I wouldn't be surprised off another dire august. Say what you like 'oh no another summer is over', but it is what I think will happen! I hope to be proved wrong!! The problem with your posts is that it is always too far out to get excited about and never anything but 'high pressure rising from the south' posts. The ecm has none of this or hints, so it is 50/50 atm, but I know which model I would trust at this stage. Infact high pressure is getting delayed, deja vu anyone? The gfs many times now has been on the warm side too. I FOR ONE AM SICK OF THE CONSTANT STICK, BECAUSE APPARENTLY I DECLARE SUMMER OVER. WHEN HAS IT EVEN BEGAN AND QUITE FRANKLY WHAT IS WRONG WITH HAVING OPINIONS, IF I HAD PREDICTED THE START OF SUMMER TO BE DREADFUL, BOY WOULD I BE HAPPY! I think people just want to believe it is going to be half decent and don't like when people predict it to be crap, but this is reality!

what do those warm water suggest and for pattern wise for the upcoming autumn at least?

I agree with the above, a mild winter, would make no difference in my household to be honest, a mild winter is a mild winter, but it is still cold in the UK and whatever happens, we will have heating on throughout!We had it on several times in May, when it was cool and I wouldn't be surprised if we had it on in next week, when the weather gets dreary and wet and temperatures drop to mid teens or below at times.

It does not look brilliant does it for a good chunk of this month? I am not writing off summer, but I don't expect any major improvements this month or heatwaves. It could get rather wet and cool from the weekend onwards, or even friday. Once August gets here, the clock starts to tick on any real warmth, then September comes and I lose interest on prospects of warmth and look forward to Autumn, might at well class the weekend onwards as autumn, horrid! Anyone got any analogues for August, or what pattern we might get?

It looks very cool in regards to uppers across europe

There is nothing there to suggest any dry weather or it sticking around, it is going to get unsettled through the weekend and likely hood to stay like that most of next week. As for excuses that gfs is changing, well it is out on a lim anyway, with all the other models showing something different to it anyway, but even I can see gfs looking pretty unsettled. High pressure does not build in like you say, it clips us and a new low pressure spawns in the northwest, I think your clutching at straws again or trying to build up the assumption that something good will come out in all this by picking at charts that shows a little bit of high pressure, but from the weekend and next week it is not brilliant at all. There is no proper high pressure building into the uk, like the one from a few week ago when we had the mini heatwave. Like you say, gfs is chopping and chnaging, so I don't see how the 'teasers' in FI can be relied on too much yet. I don't see how the fact that the gfs is changing, has any impact on what it could be like next week, the overall pattern is the same for the weekend.

It is nice people are trying to hold hope that gfs will be near the mark, but even as a big summer love, I have backed down and can see it is looking very likely that it is going to be rather unsettled and cool around weekend onwards, not looking good at all. It is 4 or so models against the gfs, which has been all over IMO. Even if the gfs did come mid range, it would still be pretty naff weather. Those who love cool wet weather, you look to be in for a treat, I would prefer it, if it was September onwards, but if this is what we have for the rest of summer, then I will be looking for autumn haha

Only gfs shows some sort of hope, I wouldn't hold out hope though, further down the line gfs offers some better weather and better weather throughtout the weekend and next week, but I am with the euro models on this one. The gfs I think will join the bandwagon. Could be very cool next week when the the warm uppers clear from the troughs. hmm summer.