snowlover2009

I have a feeling the deep cold will makes its presence mid January and last into early spring, before that a continuation of the current weather with pm air and snow showers at times and feeling cold still. Surely the la nina will peak very soon and decline afterwards, meaning that we will end up with a very weak la nina next year or be around neutral for early spring or roughly. Which would be better for colder weather.

Wowzer: http://176.31.229.228/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfs-0-1080.png? http://176.31.229.228/modeles/cfs/run1m/cfs-2-1080.png Nothing like staying in the reliable time frame haha

Whatever happens guys, its a very active pattern coming up soon and we are going to get some very interesting storm potential. Interesting time for storm lovers and a seasonal feel and possibility of some wintriness particularly across the north and temperatures look essentially cold in my view, taking into account how strong the wind will be and the direction as well. So I am happy with this. You generally feel the cold more in a cold active outlook than you do with a proper cold spell. Just my opinion. Of course siberian air is still what I would like to see and definitely would freeze us, just saying. Its going to feel quite cold in the strong winds. I felt it this morning and it was a slight breeze, could have been just me or the mild autumn.

The ensembles look fairly cold: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png No days above 8c according to the mean http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

It looks more severe when you look at it like this!

I think the storm potential is still there regardless if it downgrades. It needs watching, the start of next week has been the signal to show something interesting and the weekend This week itself will be interesting.

Its ok saying that BFTP, but you said this last year, that the winter would be good. Yes December was good, sorry outstanding, the rest of winter was crap. No storms at least or anything noteworthy. You don't back up your reasons to say why you think it will be fascinating and it would be welcomed to know why, considering you are a good poster and have a lot of knowledge. Thanks

Blizzards eventually on the northern edge of that massive low for northern England, as the cold uppers dig in behind it, if it verified. Just wow. Urm no its not. No one is saying it is going to verify, we are just saying a low like that would definitely bring a lot of destruction and death. All storms which are fairly strong, have the potential for death anyway. But if it came off, all the above couldn't be ruled out, particularly destruction.

Sounds very dramatic but it is true! That would make the papers and headlines across the whole of the uk. It could be a very extreme day if that came off. Massive destruction would never be ruled out. As I said, it would be very historic day.

This needs to be watched very very carefully. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png It could bring some very extreme conditions to the uk in all weather types. Winds, snow and rain wise. Could be a very dangerous period coming up and a very eventful start to winter after the dire autumn. No deep freeze like last year, but some very exciting weather showing if you are a fan of the type of storms and high rainfall etc. Could also be some decent snow showers in the north for high ground with the cold uppers being progged. The gfs has support from other models with a very dangerous low showing early next week. Lets just say if that came off, it would be a very historic day country wide.

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/ukmaxtemp.png http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/h500slp.png http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/h850t850eu.png http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/6hrprecip.png http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/prectypeuktopo.png Probably snow over high ground or to low levels at times. But wow, the biggest snow storm ever. I would love this to happen! It is rare to get a perfect synoptic like this, to get snow, with a low tracking south of the uk and bring all that precipitation and wind, along with cold temperatures and cold uppers for snow.

Only one place where this has to go and its this thread. Wow: http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/ukmaxtemp.png http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/h500slp.png http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/h850t850eu.png http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/6hrprecip.png http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111127/18/189/prectypeuktopo.png Probably snow over high ground or to low levels at times. But wow, the biggest snow storm ever. I would love this to happen! It is rare to get a perfect synoptic like this, to get snow, with a low tracking south of the uk and bring all that precipitation and wind, along with cold temperatures and cold uppers for snow.

Im in my town called Windy Bank and I tell you something, it ain't half living up to its name tonight.

Are we expecting the worst winds tomorrow? Its bad over here at the moment and looking at the outlook things could be a lot worse with some of these tight lows fore casted and added to that the wind flow is going to be much colder!

Also to add a about 5 or 6 runs showing heights building over scandi or Greenland. The majority of the other runs keep resetting the very unsettled northwesterly incursion or west to east movement. A good deal of runs show some major storm systems coming up, so some lively weather indeed and with the wind directions and strength of wind, it won't feel pleasant to be out in! To add the temperatures are generally looking average to below, particularly for us in the north. No deep cold, but I like the fact of the wind making it feel very raw, which in some ways is better than dry continental cold.

That UK high above would produce fog and frost and be very seasonal. Any fog lingering would keep temperatures well below 5c, with maxes around 4 to 9c, north to south. Progressively getting colder, the longer it hangs on, as that is the tendency with those type of highs.

anyone have a link to that whopping gfs outlier on the 12z ensembles. I missed it. How much difference in uppers was the op from all the other ensembles?

All runs seem to wobble at times. GFS has also been on the milder side of things recently, but only further out in runs, but as we know it has been on the colder side too, whereas ecm seems to be going on the mild side quite early with little support. I love the ecm mean anyway.BTW I disagree, I remember the ecm the odd time, disagreeing with gfs cold synoptics, but there were times where it was vice versa. Gfs had the holy grail of charts last year and the best I have ever seen from all models put together. Are the verifications stats for the ensembles or the ops? If it is for the whole lot, then take into account the ecm has no support from the other pack of ensembles.

Once again the ecm has no support whatsoever from the ecm mean. In fact, the 240 chart couldn't be any different to the mean 240 chart. The control goes to the freezer, one of the coldest runs. From that point of view, the euro high at least moving away from us, for the time being and I am confident enough to believe will be seeing plenty of PM incursions, so some snow possible for high ground in the north. None of the ensembles or other models support any euro high on the scale of October and this month, from what I can see. If that big block of high to the west of Greenland and north east Canada on Ecm verifies, then I wonder if that could help us shift to something much colder through next month.

JMA close to GFS. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rjma1921.gif ECM lonely again tonight. The ecm has been an outlier for the last 3 or so runs. JMA continues with the unsettled and change to cooler conditions with PM air and windy weather and the thread of wintriness on high ground in the north.

I took that quote from TWO. There is not enough support for the ecm to come off, so we are stuck with the unsettled flow for now, the euro high returning is not nailed on by no means and it is only the ecm that shows this and look at how it has been performing lately. It has Been on top as the mildest and nothing like the ecm mean.

Not with the way ecm has been recently, its had no support from the ensemble mean for the last 2/3 days, what is the betting of it continuing that way? Viewing all models, I would say ecm is the only one that seems to look lost, however push the pattern more eastwards it would be a lost more interesting I think. I would appreciate more balance when posting weather charts. You only seem to post things that contain mild synoptics and when none show, you don't post charts.

Just for you: http://hw.nwstatic.c...384/h500slp.png is it a good sign? I have to say when I saw this, I just knew this was the Finnish high by the way it looks. Looks like it could set up to be a classic battleground. http://www.wetterzen...berdeen_ens.png http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png Look at that steep drop and we never recover till the end! As long as the mean is below 0, the odds for cold and wintriness stays and increases! The control is colder believe it or not.

This chart is brilliant: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif Euro completely blasted to smithereens! On previous models and outputs the euro high has either moved south or stayed close to us and most of europe, whereas the mean shows it completely gone. The gfs run blasts it away completely too.

yep and the mean is almost a direct northerly and high pressure pushing north into Atlantic, hopefully we can get some heights building. All I have to say, is tonight outputs are the best I have seen since last winter.