kev238
-
Posts
503 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by kev238
-
-
I have to say that the 6z is perhaps the most snowy run (for the Midlands/ Northern Ehgland) I have seen in the high resolution part of the run. I dont think it can really pan out this way but it is good to see! At least the possibilities are there and are within the 'reliable' part of the run!
-
There is a clear indication that the next 5 days are going to be very wintery across a swathe of Britain. After that, I would concur that things are likely to get a little milder but I doubt they will ever be properly mild in a strict classification sense.
The NAE model (which the BBC use for their precipitation predictions) clearly suggests heavy snowfall tomorrow afternoon and evening for much of east wales, midlands and parts of east anglia. The snowfall will probabaly be of thewet variety but is likely to be heavy.
If I were around Birmingham, I would think they may get some of the worst of it. Of course, the NAE may shift the track slightly although it has been consistent today in its positioning of the rain/ snow divide and also potential accumulations.
-
I said yesterday we could be sleep walking into some snow events-- the one for today seems like it has not really got going yet- the one for tomorrow is now being mentioned on the BBC and is on the Met Office site as an amber warning. I like it when these turn amber as they are indicative of increasing confidence in a situation. As it happens, I am travelling from Nottingham to Gloucester tomorrow afternoon so it could be a very interesting journey.
The models have a very Feb 09 look to them with similar areas perhaps being hit by snow events. Infact, this could be the best chance of snow of the winter for the area of Nottingham, Derby, Leicester- amounts for us so far have been quite small compared to many other areas. Equally- it could be too marginal or the precipitation could miss all together! The weather will keep us on our toes in the next week or so!
-
Badboy... obviously right down on the South coast you need something quite special to deliver snow at anytime of the year and granted there isnt anything showing in the models for that. There is however potential for snowfall events in some narrow bands of the country in the next few days. They could be heavy and disruptive, but shortlived. I repeat the word potential as it is not a definite!
-
I mean- there are possibilities within the first 48 hours. The NAE shows the first band clearly and also the 2nd band at 48 hours with heavy snowfall over parts of Somerset and Devon (uplant areas I should imagine)
I am not saying that this will happen but it could happen-- things appear to be popping up at short notice and it reminds me of Feb 09 where things popped up at short notice.
In my opinion people looking at a week ahead maybe missing chances in the near future esp on the North and Northwestern flanks of the lows as they slide across England.
-
Well the GFS shows the potential for 2 loads of snow over the next couple of days all within 54 hours. The first one the BBC are mentioning for a thin strip of Midlands- the 2nd load they are not so I assume that will not happen (it does look marginal on GFS but no more so than the snow for tomorrow)???
Infact if you believe the GFS first 96 hours we could be sleep walking into a very snowy period! It clearly is not going to happen like this I guess but it is showing on this model!
-
The chances ofa wide spread freeze are dwindling- but the chances of disruptive snowfall events (shortlived) are still there and will be whilst there is that big block of cold to the north east.
To be honest, I would welcome some milder weather now! This winter has promised a lot but delivered a max of 4cm of snow in Nottingham- the best stuff for this location has always been 144 -168 hours out!
-
Indeed week 1 will be a starting point- week 2 is when we could see some disruptive snowfall-- too far out for any detail though!
-
I expect snow to be quite limited in the next five days- no model really shows anything severe in that period. I think it is all about getting the cold established next week- and then seeing what opportunities present themselves from next Friday onwards.
As TEITS says Feb 09 was far better for my location (nottingham) than anything this year so I am remaining cautious regarding prospects as the coldest Jan in 25 years didnt really produce the goods IMBY!! I really hope the hints in the output of Easterly winds come into fruition; however I do feel the best charts are remaining at t144 on the UKMO!
-
Its odd how we seem to be getting one of the coldest runs from the GFS and one of the warmest with ECM.
There is so much divergence it is highly unlikely any of the solutions offered is accurate!
-
Indeed- there is so much data available from GFS that it is easy to take it as gospel. To be honest, I expect somewhere in the warning advisory will get some snow but it will be a narrow band and obviously altitude will be a good thing to have on your side!
-
Well the NAE only goes out to 48 hours from what I can see although i maybe incorrect in this?
However, I am fairly convinced that the Met Office have more access to data than we can cobble together online!
What I am fairly sure of, is that the Met Office dont have an agenda behind their short term forecasts, unlike so many online forecasters who let their preference for a certain weather type cloud their forecasts in the short and medium term.
-
There always seem to be a clamour on here to go against whatever the Met Office states-- seeking some kind of kudos. The advisories are just that anyhow- a moderate chance of something happening.
It states early warnings of severe weather are given when there is greater than 60 % confidence in an event happening.
So for Wednesday, they have less than 60% confidence as they have issued an advisory rather than a warning:
"These advisories are issued by 1300 daily as routine, though they may be updated at other times if required. They indicate confidence of expected severe or extreme weather. Early warnings and Flash Warnings supersede advisories when confidence levels are 60% or greater."
Therefore, it can be assumed that their confidence level is somewhere around 50%-59%- barely greater than an even chance of an event happening in a set location.
These advisories are just that; yet some people will take these literally as a warning of 10cm of snow for their area on Wednesday attacking the Met Office if it does not happen. Infact, the charts are being mis-interpreted and/or poorly worded by the organisation.
-
Yawn- all this analysis for wednesday based on GFS. There was obviously a risk for a snowfall event when the Met Office were issuing an advisory this morning- I doubt they were using the GFS for guidance on this.
The weather in the medium term never looks mild, merely average, and there are hints from ECM that the continental influence may last up to 144 hours.
-
Yeah- the cold spell in Nottingham has been ok but with all the potential it has never really delivered a knock out punch!
-
Interesting day here in Nottingham. Freezing drizzle left a sheen of ice across most surfaces- especially treacherous around the hillier Northern and Eastern sides of the city.
Now light snow has been falling for the past couple of hours-- beginning to lay I guess. Peanuts compared to other parts of the country but nice to see nonetheless!!
-
I think people should hold fire or post mortems just yet. The main precipitation is just beginning to push in from the East- it may be that little accumulates.
Incidentally the orange warning for some parts is valid from 1800 tonight.
-
Acutally there is a completely separate warning for the areas that are highlighted in orange.
-
Exactly- no mention of high ground for the Sunday warning. I dont expect 30 cm of snow here in Nottingham but 5-15 cm seems likely.
-
One thing I will mention is that there is no reference to high ground in that warning-- usually there would be. Now, I dont for a moment think that we will get 20-30 cm here in Nottingham city but I do think think we are well placed in this whole event. And, the fact we are in an orange zone a day before the event, indicates the Met Office think this could be quite a disruptive event. The proof will be when we see the radar tomorrow afternoon anyhow!
-
Crimson Sprite-- why do you think that the met office disagree with the BBC? The Met Office have an orange warning for 5-15 cm widely and 20-30cm locally; Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, Derby and Derbyshire are the highlighted areas in the E Midlands. That is a large variation in potential snowfall but the Met Office clearly think so.
Those text forecast cover all the way down to near Northampton so dont read too much into them. If the Met Office have an orange warning covering our area they are quite confident of some disruption.
-
If you read my post it clearly says 3" (inches)???
-
Around Mansfield there is about 6" of snow which is only 20 miles North of here. Yeah i expect some showers tomorrow night and then flurries on Saturday. Not got a clue about Sunday and Monday at the moment-- some light snow blowing around in the wind is what I would go for or snow drizzle!
-
On the Northern side of Nottingham-- on Mapperley top and we have 3" of snowfall and sheet ice on all the local roads-- very trecherous indeed. The Southern and Central parts of Nottingham have fared much worse than the Northern side of Nottingham and it goes to show how localised snowfall a intensity and distribution can be.
I will also caution against ideas of 3 days of snowfall for the midlands over the weekend and Monday-- I reckon there will be a bit but lots will be of the flurry variety and will not add much to snow on the ground. I will happily be proved wrong-- I have not seen anything online or on the tv or on other types of media that suggests a midlands whiteout, so set your expectations realistically.
South West England Cold Spell Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Just travelled back on train from Nottingham to Gloucester. No snow settling in Cheltenham- cross over the M5 and it turns white. Gloucester about 1 cm of snow-- roads slushy, estate roads white. Not snowing anymore. I was just amazed at the transition between cheltenham and gloucester!