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Buzzit

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Posts posted by Buzzit

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Referring back to the stat charts posted by Snowking (thanks)

    What really strikes me is that when you look at the trend, apart from the GFS being consistently the worst performer on an overall basis (as compared with UKMO, ECM) is that when the GFS is wrong it really is horribly wrong - or put another way, the statistical gap between GFS and ECM when ECM is performing best is much worse than when GFS is performing best.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just chatted through the MR story with them. Essentially they think MOGREPS reverting to a zonal default and thus rejected. On other hand, they stress that at that range, no certainty whatsover on solution re scope of blocking and so they're not fretting over it. They've little interest in speculation beyond end of next week.

    Thanks for that Ian, it brought back to the forefront of my mind, the concept that we are still many moons away from being able to accurately forecast to any extended length of time. Personally, I think we are at the point where we could do with a lot more investment by the EU in measuring devices for the Arctic / Subarctic regions - just my two cents, but I believe this is the biggest barrier to improvement in model output at the present time. The USA can afford to send Hurricane Hunters every few hours, so why we cannot afford to fly a couple of planes around every day is far beyond my comprehension.

    South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 11th February 2013 18:00hrs>

    in Regional

    Posted

    Hi All - As I said yesterday afternoon, this front would end up with a more banded feature over the SE than what was progged by the models, this is coming to pass so likely we will have a heavy band of precipitation which will be all snow. I see chances increasing all the time for parts of the SE that this event will be all snow tonight - at least until the second front arrives (currently over Ireland) :) Good Luck :)

    Winter Model Output Discussion - 06Z 09/02/13 onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Buzzit

    I was looking at the Northern hemisphere charts on the latest 12z GFS - what a load of cobblers - there is low pressure in situ off the coast of Canada for almost the entire 360 hours of the run - ridiculous - I give the GFS operational no creedence past +96 at the moment - pants. And no - it has nothing to do with what weather I want - the fact that the low pressure is sitting there makes the run utterly binnable

    In fact : It is almost like the GFS said to itself "I've got all this weak low pressure sitting off Canada and it's not moving anywhere.. sigh.. I know what to do I'll spin up a monster low out of nothing to drive it all away, but hang on, I really like low pressure there so what I will do is make sure another low pressure system reaches the current one before I let the first one go - yeah that will work - I saw it once at the fun fair on the Ghost Train ride"

    South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 11th February 2013 18:00hrs>

    in Regional

    Posted

    Hi All

    Looking at Satellite and going off my own intuition (and the low centre could be a little more south than expected) I think that most of tomorrow night could likely be an all snow event for those inside of, and North and East of Greater London. The reason I say that is I think the precipitation may become quite heavy and banded in the SC, SE, and the first band I am banking as being all snow. :) thats my take anyway - I got knocked out of the cup in the first round so I have nothing to loose :)

    South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 6th February 2013>

    in Regional

    Posted

    The Model Output Discussion thread reminds me of a quote from a particular novel...

    "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness" :)

    Stick to Gibby's and others posts in the In Depth Model Discussion Thread... besides its far far far far far tooo early to know how this weekend will pan out - let alone 2 weeks time and far too much IMBY'sm on the MOD thread to trust half of what is written.

    I spend more time in there in the summer when there are a lot less crazies :)

    London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Members in the next round from Surrey/Sussex, if any poss. accumulations from this event moving in to S.W. of area, they dont count towards your depths for your next match-up.

    Sorry but I think I would have a riot on my hands from members in Essex/Kent.

    Anyway, managers are complaining that their teams are too tired for another fixture yet after 2 matches in 3 days!

    Regards,

    Tom

    I feel an Alex Ferguson moment coming on (and Im not even still in the competition) :)

    Essex/Kent members more important are they ? :p

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