Buzzit
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Posts posted by Buzzit
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Heathrow 30.5c at 4pm - Nice one !
Looking forward to getting home and enjoying it(Pic is not of me)
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It's a lovely quiet, hot afternoon, here, 28.4 degrees c on a shaded north facing balcony! Can anyone explain something we saw around 8pm last night. The sun was veiled by some cloud, though we could see the disk of the sun through it. Some distance to the left of the sun but at the same height was a bit of a rainbow, a small arc but turned 90 degrees sideways so it looked vertical. Neither hubby nor I have seen anything like it before and were wondering what caused it. Anybody got an explanation, please?
CD
Well i think you are leaving yourself wide open to a slew of jokes
(lucky this is a weather forum) -
Need a cooler desktop background
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Good call that.
Anything for the Winter yet?
Far too early yet for the way I look at it
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For what it is worth I posted in the summer thread on May 7th that we would have above average temperatures and below average rainfall for summer with no Northern blocking and my worry was (and still is) that we would not have see a change to a traditional autumnal pattern at the correct time (hence drought conditions) The rational behind my prediction was analogues for Europe based on where we were at the start of May as well as the conditions experienced during the preceding Southern Hemisphere summer - but with a particular focus on statistical anomalies vs traditional patterns.
Not extremely scientific but it is the best I can do
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It is hot in Twickenham - good night for a quiet drink (or two) in the garden - as it will be for rest of the week. This spell has legs
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In Twickenham it is definitely 31c
I think it will struggle to get below 19c here tonight (and for next few days) Enjoy -
Don't worry I am out for most of the day. Coast cannot monopolise the 'fun' all of the time !*GROAN*
There's always on....no wait, we have two today
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Your BBQ is taking a while to warm up if its only at 26.4cLOL when I clicked post and read it again I though who will reply first with such a comment, anyway by which I did mean the heat and the health of some family members, we have cleared 26.4oC here now.
needs to be hotter to make sure you kill all the bugs to ensure health safety when you serve the food to the family
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Every day is and I will be!
Good morning - looks set to be a hot one and possibly the hottest of the year so far. Don't forget the 5 s's
Thanks for reminding people Coast ! Hope everyone has a great day and I will get on with the 5 s's after I complete the 3 s's
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I believe this summer will have above average temperatures and below average precipitation. All in all an excellent summer but not sure if it will reach 2003 levels... (my mother re-married on the hottest day of the year in 2003 - needless to say a lot of beverages needed to be consumed
) My biggest concern is that we may not revert to a traditional autumnal pattern this year. No entrenched northern blocking this summer. (no I am not Ken Ring)Not doing too bad so far
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this thread is surely the place to share .. created as it was to overcome great divides (and censorship) .. share the native wisdom !
Well Mods say no so that seems to be the end of that - You will just have to google it or start a thread (but don't believe every thing you read of course)
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I know this topic is quite a broad one, but Hopi's? Seriously?
Please try and keep it bit more topical.
I was interested - I know a lot about the Hopi and Native American perspectives on climate change - will pm instead - sorry
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A piece of research, any piece of research, is perfectly valid, within the parameters stated, so long as it's carried out according tp protocol...what hacks, politicians and vested interests spin it as, however, is not...Which is why we have this divide...
As Jesus said (I'm not religious, I don't know a better quote) 'beware of false prophets' - or should I have said 'profits'?
Not sure why you keep bringing money into the discussion
I have little time for phrases such as "thoroughly vindicated" and I have little time for Corporate fat-cats, Career Politicians, and Monopolistic Corporations in general. What i would like to see is a move away from arguing about what the temperature / how much sea ice and what the quality of it was xxxx years ago vs today. And more of an effort made to encourage the government to spend money on science & technology to help us get through the situation we find ourselves in (both climatical and as a society) with more than 1M people left at the end of it.No posts appear to swing anyone to either side which is why I think we have three threads so people can live in their niche
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The wild extrapolations politicians used, in order to encourage the building of wind-farms, on their rich chums' land, certainly have not been vindicated...the fact that Mann's work only involved a small number of trees, is acknowledged in his original paper...
Well use more trees then and then I am sure everyone will feel more thoroughly vindicated.
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Hockey sticks?
Few if any American climate scientists have been as falsely accused — and thoroughly vindicated — over both their academic practices and scientific results as Dr. Michael Mann.
http://www.desmogblog.com/national-science-foundation-vindicates-michael-mann
Whatever - lets move on from the hockey stick - and thoroughly vindicated is the sort of exageration politicians use to tell you how great and right and just they are. Nothing worse in my opinion when it comes to the debate when you point to a link rather than the source so people can actually read what the judgement was (which contains great use of carefully chosen statistics of course which both sides do, which further illustrates what a pain in the backside it is to argue with each other)
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and Steve was not much more accurate statistics showed than the poster I made comment on.His views about model bias on certain runs does have some correctness about it but his writing off re the 06z last winter was OTT to be honest.Some justification for, whatever the cause, his comments about the European area being a bit different to the northern hemisphere.Our memories play tricks with us, we are all guilty, if that is the right word, of this. Hence my preference for 'real' data or statistics that show the reality
Having looked at the stats the 6z has performed very well amongst the GFS op runs when considering the last 30 days in total, but its recent form (last 7 days) is much less impressive in comparison. Without having the time to prove anything, my theory is that as it does have less initialisation data, it has a chance to get things right if other runs with more initialisation data make more of a certain feature than may be warranted (ie: it performed well with respect to the initialisation of high pressure over the UK) and, in any case, as we do not 100% understand all of the drivers of our weather, it always has the chance of being more correct at times. It is why I look at the 6z and 18z for confirmation of trend rather than specifics, especially as we cannot compare them to UKMO and ECMF at these times.
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By the way if you do use the London charts above a small tip is that if you use
http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=6&ville=Londres&runpara=0
Go to where "run=6" appears in the web address and you can change the "6" to 0,6,12,18 to see the four most recent runs ensembles
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Before people get carried away with the reload it's worth noting that the last 3 op runs on GFS were mild outliers on the ensembles.
Scrap my post the ensembles below speak for themselves
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Heights getting a bit further west on GFS 18z vs 12z, and the trend is in disagreement with ECM, that's all I'm saying.
Oh look the -10 850s reform over Greenland at 372 lol
Good spotting ! At least it is later than yesterdays 6z
(I will keep saying bonkers while the 6z continues to throw up bonkers chart output). Someone tell me it is a trend go on lol -
Whilst i take on board what was said a little up the thread I still feel that the 'divide' is not healed but made wider by allowing uncorrected gibberish , from both sides?, to remain unchallenged within threads?
Were it the model thread then 'corrections aplenty' would appear and our many 'novices' ( certainly me among them) learn by those addendum's? to think that folk will happily go off to google every 'snippet' is , for me, a big step away from the day to day reality I recognise?
Simple corrections of 'factual' information do not only 'stick' in a persons mind ( due to the 'correction' highlighting the 'error'?) but also help educate the original poster ( who may have actually sought to deceive and is shown the folly of that action?)?
Sounds to me like you should take some time and create your own climate forum... Then you can run it as you like while also posting on Netweather. By the way - do you believe in the Hopi lower and higher path and the Blue Star prophecy ? or is it unrelated to your passion on climate ?
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Any chance of some model-discussion peeps?
Good discussion on Kate Upton http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/vicki-hogarth/the-return-of-the-supermodel_b_3551875.html
(could not resist - really i could not !)
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I am always reminded of how as you go through schooling - scientific ideas are presented to you as facts - the same facts which you later find out were either only a very small part of a much larger process, or simplified so much as to be almost redundant - I always think of photosynthesis as a good example. This experience for me has always shaped my thinking on science, that we only ever know what we think we know, but we will probably never know what it is that we truly need to know.
The media also has a lot to answer for on many topics of public interest (not just scientific) the move from the late 90s to tabloid journalism and little critical thinking or 'investigative' journalism in almost all mainstream media productions has led to a complete lack of reliability / trust being able to be placed on the news media, while they continue to allow almost anyone to say whatever they want and they never question them on the accuracy of their statements.
At some point in the future I am going to hear a politician say "Let's be clear" just one too many times
Looking forward to getting home and enjoying it
South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 11th July 2013 onwards
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Buzzit
GFS 12z is a nightmare !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
for mild sunny weather lovers
Actually I am reminded of the arbitrariness of many things in life, with London set to hit around 30c every day for the next week+ with high overnight temps.. should the met office just call it an official heat wave anyway because surely those susceptible to high temperatures will be (if not already) suffering
I spare a thought for them