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Buzzit

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Posts posted by Buzzit

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Im trying to recall without looking if the last post I made in here was 2010... 
    Grover watch tells me its going to be very cold and from all of the charts I have perused in this forum over the last couple of days (without reading much of the attending text) I dont know why some persist with practicing one foot in the grave.. Perhaps best to refer back to John Holmes post on page 23 regarding the latest 500mb anomaly chart from NOAA, and the corrosponding strong indication of Northern blocking.. what else do you need yet ? (please dont answer this)

    Looking forward to posting come Tuesday on how long this will last for, when most people will be nowcasting in their regional threads and model output discussion will have some breathing space

    • Like 2

    SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->

    in Regional

    Posted

    Looking at the 2pm pressure charts there is now a 'lovely' kink in the isobars that looks a little more extreme than I would have expected at this stage..

    I am also bearing in mind that with the arrival of the low at some point there will be a lot of wind shifts and nowcasting it looks like precipitation will be around for quite a while into the evening

    Lastly.. no point sitting at the Beeb / Met alter as they cannot do anything more than we can at this stage... (noting Met website has just gone back to heavy snow 6-8pm for Westminster)

    • Like 2

    SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    I have not posted for years.. (at least not since Croydon snow plough days) but in this case I have I have to say that the chance of snow is increasing, along with it settling. If the low continues to track the right way we are looking at very heavy wet snow with the obvious chance of transport chaos that entails..

    Even the met weather page has been showing increasing amount of snow over a longer period so can't do anymore than that for the doubters

    • Like 3

    Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Buzzit

    I would say that the model did well, just a little further west- CF the 15Z model frame with the WV satellite for same time.

     

    rD2l1LV.png  seviri_nat_wv_low_20150129_1500.png

    It initialised a low fairly well locationally but I was more reffering what it does with it in the second output chart you posted.. as in treatment of down the line. In those charts it really makes nothing of the low at all

    Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Buzzit

    OK ive just checked out the models soundings, had a look at the Satellite images .. This is indeed, it would appear, a genuine Polar Low. I doubt it'll get further than western Scotland.. however it is quite fragmented. The flow overnight is actually perfect for a Polar Low.. if you look at the charts for the next 12 hours.. this is as good a situation for a Polar Low to develop.. but it's whether it can last it's journey down the Irish Sea, which i don't think it will. That said, it's still winding itself up.

    I agree - Though I think it has a higher chance of surviving for longer as it does not have too much to battle against..

    Will be interested to see what if anything is made of it on the 12z's

    General Volcanic Activity Thread!

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by Buzzit

    Well we will know a lot more once it melts through the glacier (which could be 100m to 400m thick depending on the exact spot where the magma is interacting with the ice. I would suggest that we should see a break through tomorrow.. let's hope it is not a VEI 6 or worse (unlikely but this process has been making a lot of the right noises for greater potential in time, without any evidence of such occurring) it may even create a fissure past the end of the glacier itself.

     

    http://www.ruv.is/frett/small-eruption-near-bardarbunga

    General Volcanic Activity Thread!

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Latest

     

    Seismic activity at Bárðarbunga persists

    18.8.2014

    The intense seismic activity that started on 16 of August at Bárðarbunga persists. Very strong indications of ongoing magma movement, in connection with dyke intrusion, is corroborated by GPS measurements. There are currently two swarms: one to the E of Bardarbunga caldera and one at the edge of Dyngjajokull just E of Kistufell. At 2.37 am on the 18th a strong earthquake (M4) was located in the Kistufell swarm.

    This is the strongest earthquake measured in the region since 1996. As evidence of magma movement shallower than 10 km implies increased potential of a volcanic eruption, the Bárðarbunga aviation color code may possibly be changed. Presently there are no signs of eruption, but it cannot be excluded that the current activity will result in an explosive subglacial eruption, leading to an outburst flood (jökulhlaup) and ash emission. The situation is monitored closely.

    • Like 1

    General Volcanic Activity Thread!

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by Buzzit

    Everything I have read this morning tells me that this will be a big erruption - lets hope its not.

    Definitely looking like quake rings forming / formed.

     

    Earthquake count: Last 48 hours

    • Magnitude less than 1 in all:  136
    • Magnitude 1 to 2 in all:  510
    • Magnitude 2 to 3 in all:  110
    • Magnitude more than 3 in all:  6
    • Total: 762

    General Volcanic Activity Thread!

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Update from other sources

     

    Earthquake count:
    Magnitude less than 1 in all: 122
    Magnitude 1 to 2 in all: 309
    Magnitude 2 to 3 in all: 46
    Magnitude more than 3 in all: 2
    Total: 479

     

     

    http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table

     

    post-10554-0-30259700-1408230056_thumb.j

     

     

    Irpsit, watching Bardarbunga

    Several things to point out.

    First immediate danger is mostly likely only to tourists on rivers which come from the west and north edges of Vatnajokull. This includes the Skaftá river near Laki, and the Jokulsá river, which passes very close to Askja road. So danger is there of a glacial burst, which would without a doubt swept a large part of that road. Also the hut of Nyidalur is located near Bardarbunga, evacuation by jeep takes 2 hours from there. so this must be taken in consideration. Tourists cannot be surprised by a ash cloud like they were in May 2011 during the night, you suddently wake up the next morning to severe volcanic night and ashfall.

    If an eruption already started (very possible and somewhat likely), it’s going to take between a couple of hourss to a couple of days to reach surface depending on its strenght, but this only if eruption is at least a strong VEI2 or small VEI3. Anything smaller, like a repeat of Fimmvorduhals and it would never break to surface.

    Any flood could take also between hours to weeks to come out of the glacier. Remember the 1996 flood took an entire month to come out of the glacier and did so by surprise. And that’s the danger. It would be several weeks after “this event†is over.

    I also do not exclude that this is a runup to a large fissure event NE of Bardarbunga. It could open between 5km to 30km. Remember we are at a time of a hotspot maxima of activity, where very large eruptions are expected between now and mid century. Also rifting cycle predicts a large fissure event sometime around mid century.

    But a larger fissure would need much more stronger earthquakes (remember Laki unzipped by a series of M5 quakes). But 1996 5km fissure unzipped by just a few M3 quakes. Thus, so far, with the current activity, only a minor fissure can open, not a big one. So either a minor fissure already started or this is just a gradual build-up to larger event later.

    Two very large fissure events happened in Bardarbunga in historical times, one in 873 and another in 1477. They blew up in a region where there was the largest lake in Iceland (as large as Thingvallavatn), so it caused explosive crater rows and a lot of ashfall. So, that was 600 years between events. And last one was 540 years ago.

    But between these events, Bardarbunga has minor events, small explosive eruptions that break the ice cap, like in 1902 or 1910, almost on average every 5-20 years, and one moderate sized fissure event in 1862, that lasted several months. Probably other moderate sized fissure events happened but they are badly documented.

    The strange thing is why Bardarbunga was regularly erupting every few years until 1910 and then stopped (except for a minor event in 1996 and some other unconfirmed under-ice events in between).

     

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