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Buzzit

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    Model Output - General Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Buzzit

    Hello

    I believe the model output is indicating a more likely snow event for Yorkshire north, South of Yorkshire seems to be continuing to slowly downgrade.

    However this is all in FI so this can obviously change and I think there is far too much uncertainty in the models +72 that nothing is certain.

    Even with the blips in the ECM lately it is still the most accurate model, and based on the fact that the synoptics are so unusual for this time

    of the year in relation to recent winters, I think we all need to take a chill pill and wait and see what happens.

    I still favour the accuracy of the ECM, though I also think ECM (and every other model) is likely to change significantly over the next three days. I am sure that the month of December 2009 will go down in model analysis folklore :wallbash: and there is no certain outcome as yet

    Mods : Perhaps you can introduce a technical model thread that you have to 'sign up' to join, which will make it easier for you to ban people from

    it if they are off topic. I want a easy to find model discussion thread, not 16 different model discussion threads (excuse the hyperbole)

    Thanks

    Model Output Discussion - Tuesday 20:25 -->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Buzzit

    Hi All

    I for one would like to give thanks to the mods on here - it cant be easy ! :cold:

    Can I make a suggestion that this thread (and previous model output threads from the last couple of weeks)

    get pinned so that over time we can all pour through the discussion and get a really good idea of what is and

    has occurred ? As the synoptics etc are so unusual as compared to recent years I feel it would be a fantastic

    teaching tool in due course if someone can analyse and build some sort of teaching model after the event :)

    Just a thought - thanks everyone for your posts !

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Buzzit

    look at the HUGE bowling ball of cold air over the continent at 168-

    I was going to say Wrecking Ball smile.gif

    In any case I was happy at 2AM this morning with the NOGAPS which gave so much agreement amongst the models of yesterday into FI at a timerange that I feel is reliable that I was just very happy that a definite cold spell was on the way

    Netweather Winter Forecast

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Headline : Mixed Bag end of winter looking nastyArticle Tone : Not ConfidentDecember : Temp (normal), Rainfall (above average), Snow (below average) * One std cold snapJanuary : Temp (above average), Rainfall (below average), Snow (below average) * No cold snapsFebruary : Temp (below average), Rainfall (average), Snow (average) * One significant cold snapMarch : Temp (way below average), Rainfall (average), Snow (way above average) * Awful

    CRU E-mails and data

    in Space, Science & nature

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