Buzzit
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Posts posted by Buzzit
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The dartboard low sitting over Europe at +120 appears to be sucking the life out of any chance of a decent cold hit, a similar evolution to the UKMO, including a pesky jetstream that suddenly wants to go on a package holiday tour across Europe.
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The GFS 12z flirts, but does not want the UK to have anything to do with the East. I am still of the opinion that the models cannot handle major synoptic change and will fight against influence from the East until the change is on top of us. The ensembles will be interesting but I doubt they will give us any definite clues. I think it will be on like Kong before too long.
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Going by the today's 6-15 day Met Office outlook they seem to think that the last week of January will be pretty average with not much in the way of anything particularly cold.
My interpretation on the met 6-30 day outlook is that they are representing the model output, which is so inconsistent that the Met is also inconsistent in its long range outlook, even to the point of suggesting that the north and west will have sunny spells interspersed with scattered showers and then also suggesting in the same breath that the north and west will experience spells of persistant rain.
Until the models provide a degree of uniformity , there will be no point looking at the met long range forecast. I dont think the model output will provide this for another few days at best.
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Thanks OldMetMan that is one of the most informative posts I have seen in the model thread for quite a while...
My personal view is that the model output last wednesday indicated to me that a pattern change was on the way (by way of examples the GFS 00z of the time had almost all of the UK covered in snow which had not been seen up to that date, and it was from the East, in additon there was (and still is) very signfiicant spread in op and ensembles comparing all models), I believe the issue still yet to be resolved is the exact time of change.
With not very many years of model watching under my belt I am convinced that all of the models handle pattern change extremely badly, which is what I would expect given the low level of weather certainty we are able to achieve past 72 hours, and given the extremely difficult nature of modelling so many variables of which we do not completely understand the interaction of... Even though the modelling systems do not have defined bias, I think there is likely to be an inherent bias due to the nature of the inputs and our understanding of.
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The rain totals from the models seems to be light in comparison to what looks like happening, especially in the South east.
I find it strange that for London the Met O have no rain on the forecast until 6am - oops but to be expected in these sorts of conditions
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Hi all, looking forward to a decent run post Christmas, do not see much to get excited about until then but maybe some wind next week - I am keeping my fingers crossed
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and besides as soon as a cold shot comes in view Im going to subscribe to Netweather Extra so hurry up lol
Im sure you will not be the only one ! Confidential I am sure, but would be interested to know what the surge in memberships is over the Winter
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Today in London is the weather I hate - dull grey overcast, thick cloud, not hot or cold, feels colder in wind, bit of drizzle, overall equals poos !
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My prediction for the coming winter is a severe increase in flu hospitalisation caused by unusually low humidity in London / SE amongst tracts of severe fuel poverty. And I am sticking my neck out and saying that there will be no lying snow in the lowland areas of the SW - sorry.
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While I accept AGW in the sense that the output of the activites of man does have an impact on the climate, that is where it ends for me... Carbon credits and the like are just another way for government and corporate facists to control the population and make the rich richer. Nature has its own way of righting the balance, and where it is sensible to stop an output (like CFCs) then we have - why do we need any more than this ? We cannot accurately model the weather 14 days ahead - so can we really know what the temperature will be in 100 years time if we keep going as current ? as it is dependant on all other variables staying fixed. as we know, the variables in nature are not fixed, so we do not know what the temperature will be in 100 years time whether we make changes or not - so lets give less control to psuedo government agencies and well meaning meddlers thanks
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As with many scientific theories, at this time there is not enough measurable support for the grand idea, but there is every chance a link will be proven in future.
I personally wish that the scientific community pooled resources and concentrated on being able to consistently successfuly predict (over 90%) global weather at a longer and longer timeframe. Only with this success will the long term patterns and influences become obvious.
As an example : We should have planes flying up to the Arctic from the UK every day to collect data points that are currently unavailable.
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I bet the person who voted 24c feels pretty stupid right now!
At least they were brave enough to keep the vote registered. I think it is stupid you can delete your vote on things like this. When people like myself voted before the heat started there were less than 30 voting for 28+ and a lot more for the lower numbers - you know who you are !!
I think full results for each individual voter and vote deleters and changers should be fully available for votes about the weather
This weather has been fantastic !
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Its really not something that can be answered categorically but for me, coming from New Zealand where the sun is far more intense."
Yes its funny sitting at the cricket in London all day and not getting burnt, and then you appreciate why travellers might go to a cricket game in NZ and expect the same thing but end up lobersterfied.
Even with forecast rain in Auckland NZ today and a high of 17c the UV Index will be 6
And quoting from NIWA (NZ) which is good general advice for everyone
"In New Zealand, its maximum summer value is generally about 12, but it can exceed 13 in the far north.
In winter, it reaches peak values of 1 in the south or 2 in the north."
"For most of us, a UV index of 4 or above means that protection from the sun is important, especially for long periods of exposure between 11 am and 3 pm during summer." (so I would say an exposure of 3 for a lot of people born in the UK)
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Will the cloud around on Saturday / Sunday help cement a new maximum temp record ?
By next Wednesday not looking too flash harry
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I know it is hard for the models to cope withtemperatures in heavy cloud / current setup but it is surprising that at the moment
For around London : NAE forecasted temp 12c, GFS OP forecasted 17c. Current Heathrow 16c & Gatwick 18c.
I think it is very suprising that the NAE is so far out at such a short time frame
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92L & 93L both at 40% now according to NOAA.
Personally I would be worried about 93L if I was in the Lesser Antilles
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Invest 90 Looking more likely as time passes
http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html
Models now showing a more NW track
I also highly recommend the following website if you do not know about it, as though Storm is not always right his information is good and he does share / participate in live discussion / radio / webcasts when major hurricanes are approaching the US Coast as to what the path and track etc will be
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Also, can I ask about the effects of Tropical Storms? My understanding of this factor is pretty low but I did have the impression that the details of what can emerge from these is highly variable/volatile/unpredictable for the UK, and that HP cannot always be ruled out of the mix.
Looking at the current projected path of TS Cindy I think it will actually assist in bringing HP over the UK
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It seems yet again the GFS is against the big two.
Going by the three models I would say the GFS has picked up on the wrong signal, for the model to not even entertain the idea puts the whole run in the bin for me. The GFS could be correct but I strongly doubt the UKMO/ECM would both consistently project a low wrongly.
Outlook for next week- Largely fine and dry for western areas, cloud amounts variable with some sunshine resulting in temperatures of 18-21.c. Central and eastern parts look to be affected by the low to our east bringing in either a showery flow or dull damp conditions, temperatures in high teens. Far north of England and Scotland looking dry with again variable amounts of cloud and some sunshine resulting in temperatures of 17-20.c.
Cheese : The ECM Ensembles from the 0z are quite different from the op run with less impact from the low pressure to the East.
Personally I do not think the UKMO and ECM are miles away from the GFS and can easily move closer towards the GFS output.
*** Seems to be the MetO thinking now...
Also : I think that predicting summer temperatures on this thread should be avoided
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Tropical Storm Cindy has formed and is heading in our general direction
Am hoping this will break the current weather pattern
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Hi all NOAA are currently forecasting a 90% chance of a tropical storm forming 550 miles east / North east of Bermuda, and ensemble models are showing that if it were to form that it would basically head towards the UK
I know that models are fairly notorius for not dealing with these sorts of things well until after the actual storm initialises, I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on it ? If it did form and head in the direction shown would it likely increase the chance of the Azores high been 'pushed' in our direction ?
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for those like me who have difficulty remembering these abbreviations
EPO=Eastern Pacific Oscillation
perhaps someone will enlighten me and others as to what WPO is - maybe Western ?
Use of these teleconnections is, at best, very difficult to link to effects in this part of the world , at worst near enough impossible.
My observation is that WPO and EPO changes often are a precusor to AO and NAO moving in the same direction as the WPO and EPO change
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no idea if i'm right but i would maintain that the very low amplification shown in those forecasts will have little bearing on what patterns we see this side of the planet.
Hi : I Would never profess to been an expert , but my understanding is that ultimately the MJO does affect the EPO and WPO which in turn affects the AO and the NAO and therefore affects the 500mb height pattern & anomalies. knee bone connected to the thigh bone etc... I hope someone tells me Im an idiot if Im wrong.. The amplification doe snot need to be dramatic for the upstream effects to occur
Sort of related - If you were a pattern matcher you would probably think we are due a generally postivie NAO till the end of the year
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forgive my not understanding but what is this meant to mean please
phase backwardation
Sorry - I will edit the post I basically mean reverting back to Phase 3,2,1 rather than hanging around 3,4,5. It is not a term I should of used
Wales - Regional Weather Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Models are pathetic - schizophrenic would be a kind description - If there is no major pattern change shortly then there should be a whole team of scientists working out what the hls gone wrong !