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Buzzit

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Posts posted by Buzzit

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Buzzit

    I also agree with OldMetman and others....

    In my own turn of phrase :

    There is no law against making a predicative forecast of the weather

    There is no law against not wishing to share a theory in depth

    There is no law against choosing not to get worked up about whether a forecast verifies at 50-70-100%

    Just leave the guy alone and lets see what turns up, at least its something a little different, something we can all follow, and to my mind at least more interesting than listening to most of the waffle in the model output forum. I would love to see responders in the model output forum also draw their own charts for a distant point in time and see how well they do compared to MB , RJS , etc...

    RJS - I know you also forecast weather a long time ahead and have spent many years working on it, I appreciate your thoughts in the various forums on Netweather - but, in the case of this thread, it is probably best to let this one go... as you say...

    New Model Analysts' Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Or the "Polar Vortex Factor" :whistling:

    But seriously the concept of the analyst only thread is great - but it also requires a certain level of commitment and quality of post from its members.

    I personally dont care if posting in the analyst only thread is infrequent but I do care if it is a one paragraph blah post

    Australian Floods And Heavy Rain

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Live news stream working in UK

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

    Just listened to a local met forecaster who only parroted the statement the met put out at 12am couldnt even give an update said wait for th enew release at 8am - typical

    Current peaks around Brisbane are higher than expected but not by much - however the main dam is loosing the battle and planning to release 638,000 megalitres today

    A lot of water !

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hello MB,

    Thanks for taking the time to post at NW and provide your February 2011 storm forecast.

    To my uncultured mind I cannot fathom how the weather could not be cyclical in nature, though likely having multiple miny cycles coexisting within a supercycle, the interaction of which at any given point in time provides a template for a method of determining weather synoptics. hence weather been chaotic, but also deterministic... However I do believe that volcanoes and tsunamis do have an ability to modify an existing mini cycle based on strength, so that a forecast made could be horribly off if such an event were to occur after a forecast was made.

    I think human nature makes us think we can eventually 'control' the weather, but it would be much better if we tried to understand it first :)

    I will continue to watch your posts and thought processes with interest

    regards

    Buzzit

    Better Than The Models ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Whatever method it shows similar to RJS and me but I'll add some more into it. Full moon on 21st is a peak energy period so a deep depression will affect the UK/Ireland followed quickly by HP building in behind. The track will determine temp but before 21st we'll have been in aprolonged cold set up. Is this peak energy period a synoptic changer? That is the question but I think not. Christmas, cold calm and crisp.

    BFTP

    BFTP does your forecast have something to do with the moon north declination peak on the 20th, the winter solstice total lunar eclipse on the 21st and the lunar perigee on the 25th and the moons southward crossing of the celestial equator on the 26th ? In lunar terms the energy in this is enormous...

    *Save Rob McElwee!*

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    One additional broader point of clarification: those of you who have actually read the quotes cited in various newsmedia sources on this story today will, I am sure, have already deduced how there is a clear and important distinction to draw between a Met Office internal HR process, versus any undertaken directly by the BBC.

    Good Luck to you and all of your colleagues Ian - Internal HR moves are never the easiest thing so I hope it passes as smoothly as possible for you all without undue acrimony

    Model Output Discussion

    in Weather reports

    Posted · Edited by Buzzit

    I agree with Richard

    Too many commentators here seem to have been getting unduly pessimistic reading Glacier Points posts in the techincal thread and getting caught up with the long range forecast from the weather...

    The models are returning to what they forecast late May (example SE reaching 22-25 every day) and this trend will continue throughout June and rain is quite welcome as it limits the uncomfortableness for many people caused by a long stretch of hot weather

    And judging by latest ensembles FI is 4 days in any case

    Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull Volcano

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted · Edited by Buzzit

    Due to the location of relevant tremor monitors they do generally pick up on activity from surrounding areas...

    I think this link is the best for getting a true idea of the tremors since eruption

    (and yes you can see how tremors are picked up similarly at the monitoring stations in surrounding areas)

    Tremors since eruption

    From other sites the consensus view is there is definitely something else happening, possibly the

    movement of deeper magma towards the surface. An earlier idea that the eruption itself was nearing

    an end seems to be completely rejected now.

    EDIT : The lower frequency tremors (red line) are possibly indicative of the idea of rising magma

    Especially as having increased over the higher frequency tremors in an extended duration

    London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hello All

    Looks like London might be chasing the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow again... still hopeful of a snow event soon !

    Can anyone help me with a question ?

    I notice that the precipitation type on the NW radar is slightly different when looking at UK vs Euro (ie. Euro shows snow often where UK shows rain or sleet) and was wondering which one is more accurate ?

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Buzzit

    I have stated this a few times in the last month and I will state it again

    With the current synoptics and variability in model output the NMM and NAE are not worth the computer processing time they take up.

    For instance compare the current NMM for 2pm today with actual temperatures - generally the NMM is a minimum 3c higher than actuals across the UK. Precipitation is also slightly misplaced, which over time will also have a considerable negative impact vs actual evolution

    Brickfielder : I think you have given a very good reasoned analysis of the NMM data for tomorrow as it exists - However I think the actual will be entirely different due to the frankly quite poor nature of the data

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