IanM

Models? Anyone fancy discussing them?

Final reminder that this area is for model discussion only, some of you seem a little confused. 'It's sunny' 'we need regional' and 'look at the pretty picture I found' are not model discussions. We don't ask a lot and try hard to not over moderate, but this is one forum where I am more than happy to just end posting privileges, think before you post.

Cheers Paul, that's appreciated.

He can't see that post.... Just tone it down, and learn the difference between a forecast and a 'definitely going to happen' If you want to moan take it to the lounge forum, not in the middle of a thread discussing todays storms.

It seems that the model discussion has become a general outpouring of wishing for a particular weather type, an avalanche of images, a running commentary of the models before they complete and very little actual model discussion. Read the rules, read them a couple more times to make sure they sink in. Then every time before you post, ask yourself whether the post is genuinely model related, and adding to the discussion or something you could post in another area of the forum. It's about the models, just the models and nothing but the models. It's not about pretty pictures, where you live, where you wish you lived, what you hoped the weather would be, how you wish for a storm, baiting, sniping, trolling or generally posting the same thing repeatedly. Hopefully that is understandable and you can all allow this part of the forum be what it is meant to be. Any thoughts you have about this can be posted in the lounge, posts here other than model related will be deleted and the rules applied. Thanks

Can we get back to the model discussion please? There's other areas in the forum for ideas, suggestions and comparing towns. Thanks

They were gifts from my wife. And unless you can vacuum pack at Glasto the advice stands, now stop going off topic ChinoFan. Good to see My Family back on, I kind of missed you

I did the vacuum pack thing for the storm chases this year. It was a great idea until I needed to put everything back in the bag.....

That's the humidex, or real feel temperature. I'm going to set up an aftersun cream sales kiosk on the road out of Pilton.

With my track record in the plains, Kansas will probably build me a mansion as a thank you for keeping tornadoes off their doorstep....

It's always great to see spaces filling so quickly after the season ends, thanks all. I've not decided which tours to drive on yet, but having seen Tour 3 get 4 tornadoes within 48 hours of me leaving, I'm thinking of buying a house in Kansas and just waving as you guys drive up and down the freeway

Yep, and you tried a little less, shall we say, aggressively, thanks for that. As a constructive criticism it's something that'll be thrown into the pot once the whole team is able to discuss it in the same timezone, lol But, and it's a reasonable but, if we issued a LRF then issued a new one rather than updating the previous one we'd be accused of trying to sweep the previous forecast under the carpet. It was my decision alone to publish the update as it stands, using GP's input, and to his credit he didn't ask for a different slant or the original forecast to be pulled. He is incredibly busy right now, so I respect both his ability to produce a forecast and at the same time track the huge array of factors that each forecast encompasses while working hard at all hours as well. something that needs to be remembered is forecasts, regardless of their timescale are constantly updated, it's just the LRF's hang around a lot longer than the typical weather forecast we are used to seeing. Watch the Beeb at Breakfast, lunch and tea for that evenings forecast, it'll change more often that you think. That's the nature of forecasting, the trick is to get it right as often as possible, and on this occasion we didn't, that doesn't mean we never got it right before, or never will again, it happens, get over it, learn from it and move on is the attitude we take. So if the manner in which the update was published was wrong then aim the criticism squarely at me, if the decision to not hide from the original forecast was wrong, then again, my decision alone. The decision to publish the LRF is a team one, and trust me when I say I know just how the poor sod at the Met Office Press Office felt now, but we're big and ugly enough to move forwards and not let this one LRF distract us from doing what we do, and doing it professionally. anyhow, it's Friday and like most of you I'm hungry and need a beer, enjoy the weekend regardless what the weather brings your way Ian

Rob, the main difference being that the Official Netweather LRF is one we control, others posted on the forum are those of members, we don't control them or update them, that's down to the individual involved. And as I have already said, we haven't removed the original forecast, it's there, where it has always been. The update has been published above it, it's not hard to find.... So the forecast as a whole will be reviewed at the end of the summer, and open to review throughout the summer.

Ok, it seems this post was overtaken in another frenzy of tit for tat postings - this thread is to discuss the LRF, not argue semantics or see who has the thickest skin. This is mainly pointless, frustrating and getting close to being a slanging match complete with personal insults, calm it down please. And for those of you who don't know, I work here at Netweather, so please play nicely or we'll take the ball away Thank you weather12, on 09 June 2011 - 16:52 , said: Thanks for the compliment Winter Monsoon! Your posting is littered with flaws... First up, I never mentioned I am a pro forecaster.. those are your words not mine. On numerous occasions you've mentioned being paid for forecasts, that seems a reasonable definition I have said I will issue a forecast, possibly later today or whenever I have some free time to look at all the relevant models. Stop repeating yourself here, you'll have plenty of free time to do whatever you please....and that would hold true for others repeatedly presenting the same point back and forth, it's time to count slowly to ten and take some deep breaths people I cant make it any clearer than it already is. If you change a long range forecast every few weeks, it cannot be labelled as such and is nothing more than a short/medium term forecast. It's a long term forecast, it's written with the view that it will stand for the complete period, we always issue updates, GP is good at explaining where the forecast is at, what has panned out and what hasn't. the original forecast has been updated, not deleted, it's still there and will be until the end of season assessment. this thread however may well be locked at some point as it seems to be creating a feeding frenzy for attention seekers I think you've nailed it on the head there... a long range forecast is exactly that... guess work! Again with the guesswork, have you read the forecast, seen the methodology, the explanations and amount of work that has gone into creating it? We've swapped messages about treading on the right side of opinionated and straying over into insults, don't slip back into the wrong area again please. I completely agree with you there... but unfortunately the public will always gather everyone under the same roof. That is a bad thing. Lucky the public have brave anonymous defenders out there keeping them safe from the big bad people who work hard and publicly test themselves, and stand up for their work as well as take it on the chin when it doesn't pan out as they forecast. I think my signature kind of sums up our position, so let's have a breather shall we? Ian

I think my signature kind of sums up our position, so let's have a breather shall we? Ian

Update - done now, all should be working as normal Sorry, I thought it had come back to life yesterday. It's being looked at now Ian

The only thing it tells us is that he is incredibly busy at this time of year.

Thanks for taking time to sign up to the forum, the forecast has been updated to reflect a change in the predicted conditions, along with a public statement admitting the point. We could have acted like a lot of other organisations, ignored it, issued no comments and quietly swept it under the carpet, or as some others do, wait for a month or two then claim it was accurate without actually publishing it for public viewing at any point. Our view is that Stewarts work for the past two or three years has had a good success rate, as an example last winter was exceptional for the first month, then milder and drier for the following period, not a typical winter. And his leading comment on that forecast was the lack of rainfall leading to potential drought issues for the summer months, seems like he was barking up the right tree there, don't you think? Anyhow, feel free to join in the conversation and debate, again there aren't many forecast organisations who publish, openly discuss and accept criticism in an open forum such as this. All we ask is please avoid insulting individuals or organisations, criticism is fine, but supporting facts and observations make it a more convincing argument than ranting. Thanks Ian

Just testing, it's the same video as above

I reckon a Netweather storm chase t-shirt would look good on the live stream.......

you missed the 'silently' part....mate

That's good, still in the 'silently proving your skills' stage then?

I did think it might be a diffraction/reflection, but it is very short lived compared to the actual sky lightning (a single frame). But I've never been one to let a fact get in the way of a good drama, lol

A video grab from Tour 1, Day 7 - the late night/early morning lightning chase. Tom nearly lost his camera, and fortunately Ian C had just called people back into his car, scarily close....