k19

No, do share? Still not really sticking here, sitting on roofs but not really increasing in depth, suggestings its a melt/replenishment effort.

Possibly also due to the ground's heat capacity- pavements will emit heat more readily that earth? Just guessing, not actually sure about numbers there.

Through the night it will beef up significantly, its just rain out in the sea at the moment, as it hits the block it will intensify, and as it drives in further eventually it will stall, and probably pivot, wherever it sits over is due for a lot of snow.

Im between Liverpool centre and Anfield The dew point can't be 1c or else it wouldn't be snowing? Where is this data from? Is the temperature due to drop overnight does anyone know? I suspect as the -5 uppers move in in the morning it will freeze the surface and snow that falls tomorrow will readily stick. Bit gutting if it doesn't start sticking tonight though

Snowing moderately but not sticking here in liverpool! Perhaps as the temperature drops it will start to.

Uppers look fine from about midnight on at the moment. Can't really see the uppers getting mixed out with the front being moved further west as it has been. We are on the snow side of things, but too far on it, which is stopping ppn from reaching us. Only if the front moves further east than expected could this become an issue.

No it will still be snow but because of the position of manchester and cheshire in the flow there won't be much of it compared to neighbouring areas. The models have been wrong about these things before though.

Interestingly the 12z GFS offered significant upgrades for our area, but I can't see the metoffice getting it wrong at this short range. Confusing synoptics indeed.

850's are useful because the temperature here (about 1500m ASL) is not affected directly by solar factors, i.e they don't fluctuate by day/night time. One main use on these forums is that they are useful for forecasting when snow will fall as opposed to rain (850's of around -5 are needed for snow, although that is a vast simplification and other factors can effect the ppn type). They can also help with forecasting [very] approximate temperatures at ground level as they are indicative of the kind of air mass we are underneath (warm, mild etc). I wouldn't be able to provide any in depth description of 500Hpa charts, apart from that they are useful for understanding what pressure systems and kind of weather associated with them is occurring. For example there may be high pressure at sea level around greenland on a normal slp map, however this could easily be a surface high (caused by the cold air), a 500Hpa chart shows when this is the case and when a true high pressure system exists by showing the air temperature at 500HPA using colours.

That chart in particular bodes well for coastal fringes, no rain in that.

On what day Liam? Also where are you getting 850's for UKMO?

Not true for those on coastal fringes. Not entirely true for those inland either, if upper temps are too high, chances are it won't be cold enough on the ground to support continuous snow as opposed to a rain/snow mix.

This run is backing everything about 50 miles further west so far.

Looking at the map on the previous stage the metoffice seem to think somewhere in the region of 10-15cm so 4-6 inches.

This is correct ha. I must've hit the wrong quote button.

It used to be if somebody said the "even larger teapot" it would filter to "christmas pudding" EDIT: It appears that it now filters to "even larger teapot"

Yeah the radar quite often shows precipitation as light, when in fact there is non about as it evaporates before reaching ground level, so will be interesting to know if you see anything of note.

Meto now being less specific about locations... saying 10cm+ though in places, I suspect they are unsure if/where the front will stall.

They normally change weather warnings around midday

Really didn't expect it to get beaten back west, I though a more eastward progression would occur! Should have a firm grasp by this time tomorrow or, at least thursday morning. Anything until then is just swings and roundabouts so don't let one run i.e this 18z convince you otherwise.

They often don't update the forecasts online until later at night or the next day, this seems to be the case especially for the northwest, no idea why.

Under current synoptics Liverpool would get just as much snow as other places in the NW- the cold uppers over the area and irish sea are helping to keep this true. However if the uppers back east it could change, but at the moment Liverpool and a good few miles out to sea are still seeing snow.

Not only that but look at the first peak, its completely different to the netweather one. I suppose your chart is from manchester though, mine was lancashire, do wetter have a lancashire one? EDIT: Still talking about the 2m temps here

I suspect the meto are being conservative with the accumulations. IF it comes off, larger accumulations in most places northwest of south wales. They are probably sticking to 2-5cm for now incase it's a non- event. Those accumulations will likely be revised upwards on Thursday if things still look good.

Is it just me who things the GFS has thrown up an odd temp. ensemble? Its an outlier right from the start for 2m temp?