k19

No they don't, we have just the same chance of seeing an above average winter this winter at this point in time, as we did this time one year ago. The weather doesn't remember what it did 12 months ago.

the 31st of July actually But yes the operational run is close to being very good, hopefully that ridge may jolt further east during the 18z which incidentally is rolling out now

You'll write off August before July is out? However I think you are right about everything depending on where you live at the moment, but I think this might be about to change if you look at the London pressure ensemble And the Aberdeenshire ensemble for pressure It seems to be that some members that show the highest pressures are showing a near equal reading in both London and Aberdeenshire, perhaps this is hinting at an anticyclonic spell of blocked high pressure over the UK? We know these are hard to shift.

Those videos are amazing. Does anyone have an idea of how often they happen in Arizona. It's definitely something I want to see in my life.

Im not gonna lie i thought that lifted indexes like these on friday And a storm risk like this would have sparked more model discussion as they suggest the whole country is very likely to see some interesting weather in the short range

very unlikely the operational is an outlier in every sense of the word Still if it varify's in 12z there is a chance

NMM Going for very high CAPE values tomorrow over London and much of the South east. Even brings the CAPE values in a 'band' like formation moving through northern England at about 8pm too.

is it not a lifted index of -5?

Have to laugh at the operational FI run

Yeah but by the end the heights are only 1020 which isn't a particularly strong high.

No I believe a cold front does push over first, but then as you can see the centre of pressure over Paris 'pivots' a warm front back upwards. I believe this may be what people think may cause storms?

Possibly in the very short range but I don't see the FAX charts as having any more reliability than the GFS or ECM when you long beyond 72 hours. Kind of like the nmm

No i doesn't matter but i was wondering why people had said 20c uppers when the operational showed none- it turned ou they were talking about the ensemble highs.

Ah yes very true looks like there's quite a spread of possibilities in that chart though, so presumably the met office and bbc don't want to call a scorcher on such an uncertain event.

I was just looking at the UK 850 temp chart for GFS and I am failing to see anything above 16 even clipping the shoreline, can anyone shed light on this?

Confidence very low around the 4th of July, so any predictions based on the GFS revolving around this time are probably inaccurate. Also the 850's look like at least low 20's for this sunday

Very much so but for a high pressure to stick around it needs to be stronger than what we have been seeing tonight, which if my eyes aren't playing tricks on me (Although they may well be) is a series of ridges from the azores high gaining independence before floating off east. Still it's way out there and i'm sure there will be a few surprises before we get there

Humidity is a measure of how much water vapour is in the air. Warm air can hold more water vapour than cold air. The reason you often find 'humid' days uncomfortable, is because the air is near or at its saturation point (Relative humidity 100%) this means that the air can hold no more water vapour, so when you sweat, it cannot evaporate if the air is truely saturated. However in practice you will find it will evaporate, just not as much, which leads to people feeling 'sticky' and uncomfortable because they cannot cool down by the evaporation of sweat. I couldn't tell you if 79% is particularly bad for Cyprus, but if you take a place like a rainforest the relative humidity rarely falls below 80%, with the high temperatures it wouldn't be too nice.

Been comfortable weather today. Best in a while. Interestingly the BBC are going for a Thunder storm on saturday for my area, never before have I seen anything but a thundery shower. Normally changes though.

If this forecast is to come good now, there is going to have to be a huge shift in the models starting possibly as soon as tonight. 5 days from the 28th, this is usually the time the models start to decide what will happen. Next few runs are key.

To me this sounds like a conspiracy theory, rather than a scientific one. You must provide us with a link to the papers he published if you do not understand it. Also I think we should note that: The North Atlantic Drift slowing down ≠a new ice age and that The North Atlantic Drift ≠the jet stream

Sorry, i may have missed something, but you don't appear to have answered my question about evidence. Do you have a source for these claims? They are quite extraordinary. But even if they did find one 3 miles wide, and a bigger one off Florida, assuming that is as little at 5% of the undersea oil ( Which I doubt; if they have had this long, with modern technology and the extent of the research any external agency probably would've found most of the larger plumes by now) then that is still only a miniscule portion of the Gulf. The quote from Tony Hayward doesn't mean anything. There was oil on the surface, and by the laws of physics most of the oil would have gone straight for the surface.

Thanks very much for your post, it is very informative. But I think there is a couple of assumptions in there, could you clear these up for me? Surely it is wrong to say about half the gulf floor is covered. There are several reasons for this. The main one being that you have contradicted yourself, you say the government hid the scale of the disaster, yet you can give this measurement? Also, for the time the oil was leaking there couldn't possibly have been enough in total to cover the sea floor, considering almost all the oil would have formed a slick on the surface anyway. Only a small percentage ( Possibly heavier fractions/ carbon chains?) would have sunk. Also you see the oil is up the coast of USA, can i see the source? I also believed that as oil traveled that distance it would disperse and would become very diluted. thanks

Wait so they haven't actually given a rough date for this then? Or is it on the pacific now, headed for california, because if not it sounds like the whole "Earthquake imminent" idea- just an approximation

Yes I think the USA might be a bit too covered, I find it hard to believe that a place the size of the USA is blanketed as far south as Tennessee. Also Scotland appears to still have snow. Does anyone know where it gets its data from?