k19

Great charts for the region today but quite literally just on the right side of the 850's needed. With any luck there won't be any movement eastwards.

Good info, but worth noting if you're looking at N. hemisphere charts that shape would be reversed for the shortwave.

In preston at the moment, not a single storm today so far, and the lightening detector seems to suggest that's the case across the country at the moment. Does anyone think things will pick up in terms of showers now the front has passed?

I know many say dont compare different runs in the same day, but the 12z seems to be all but dissolving the low progged to be positioned in the bay of biscay by many of the charts posted recently, from this to this Overall quite a different picture for t+96 hours.

I think its important to remember that in charts such as those posted by Summer Sun could potentially bring overcast and moderately windy weather to western areas. However the further south and east you are in the country the more likely you are to get settled dry weather.

Not too sure gavin, the greenland high although not weakening within the foreseeable future has been showing tentative signs of shifting, even in the chart you posted, the anomaly over greenland doesn't seem to be what it was earlier in the month. Once the Greenland high is removed, it may not guarantee different weather, but it make a pattern change more accessible.

Well at the moment the Jet stream is unable to climb northwards due to the troughing over the UK, and also the high pressure place over Greenland. Ideally to stop this the pressure situation in Greenland will change and the trough over us will warm out.

Yes and with the high humidity on thursday it will feel a lot warmer than it is, especially in western areas where the temperature isn't as high and so the rel. humidity is higher. The thundery showers will be nice in that weather. Really looking forward to Thursday as modelled.

Don't know how to look at previous ensemble charts, but recently have noticed a theme in them. The operational run has been on the lower side of the mean, and in some cases been an outlier, below is an example of this. EDIT: I'm talking about in FI, not in short range.

Not sure about that backtrack winds are forecast to pick up around lunch time, would be very surprised should we see 30c

I think it needs to be noted that FI is quite markedly spread in the ensembles across the country (as usual), interestingly though, once the members spread apart at around the 15th of May, they don't diverge as much as usual on the 850 charts. Also the members which give higher 850 temps and higher pressure at the far reaches are not always, but more often than not the same members which suggest a relatively warm weekend coming up. I know the ensembles aren't set in stone but it's very possible that a good weekend could bring better things further down the line.

very strange that now we are seeing sleety rain but no indication of snow

Surely it stands to reason that milder uppers would be pushed across the region as the colder air moves in, which will temporarily cause rain to fall across the region, before the whole region experiences snow?

This was always forecast as a rain-----> snow event so why people are worried that many places have rain is confusing me. At around 3pm the uppers should be favourable to produce snow.

In preston atm, but we have had freezing rain this morning, anyone know whether the next band will be snow?

Very strange pattern of isobars over the uk Can't understand what is keeping them that far south.

Interestingly the GFS modelled low pressure off Newfoundland at T144 has weakened significantly from the 00z.

Really cannot see the ECM evolving in to the GFS much at all. If you consider the ECM does only 2 runs a day, it has consistently shown the same solution. If it does back towards the GFS I suspect it will be to increase ridging of the azores high up to Greenland.

Disagree slightly here The low to our north is pushing much more troughing into scandinavia, if that were slightly further west, it would be getting closer to ecm

That trough causes problems later on though as it shoots off north when the ECM tries to bring it down over the UK

I think the cause is the new depression just southwest of Iceland, dragging some of the energy north east. Could be this that allows the block to resist movement.

Interesting the trough to our southwest seems to be acting a bit more like featured in the ecm now...

A lot of people seem to be thinking this at the moment, but looking at the GEFS I can't see how the GFS can be particularly trustworthy right now. The members are all over the place as soon as we hit the 19th Jan. Not to mention the ECM ensembles don't appear to have a cluster favouring the GFS. In my personal opinion, I think the UKMO will come in line with ECM, or the ECM and UKMO will meet in the middle, and the GFS will switch its theories suddenly once its 72 hour solution is not met.

Sorry, where is the extensive northern blocking on our side of the hemisphere? It just seems like a weak ridge to our north, and greenland still isn't exhibiting a decent high

I have been a member of this forum for a few years now, and although I don't often post I regularly read the model out thread. I just have a few of questions about how to read the charts: 1. Firstly can someone confirm that a trough is infact visible of the charts as a kink in an isobar of a low pressure system? or am i completely wrong? 2. How can you tell when a trough is going to effect another air mass on a chart? such as when a trough heads up to the north atlantic? 3. How can you decide where the weather fronts are by looking at a low pressure system? I don't understand how they are decided. Thanks