AderynCoch

I'm just going to repeat my January prediction of 2.0C.

Just had a moderate snow shower in Wallasey. Still too warm for stickage at the moment. What we need is a decent frost.

CETs: Winter 78/79 = 1.6 Winter 81/82 = 2.6 Winter 84/85 = 2.7 Winter 85/86 = 2.9 Winter 90/91 = 3.0 Winter 95/96 = 3.0 Winter 09/10 so far = 2.3

February 1945 came in at 7.1C - the preceding January averaged 0.4C. As good a caveat as any I suppose. Still, if we go along with that logic we should note that the last week of January 1945 was very cold - the CET maximum for the 26th was a not-so-balmy -4.5C (as far as I'm aware, dating back to 1878 only the famous 12th January 1987 has a lower CET maximum - a scant -5.7C).

Believe it or not, the coldest month of the winter since 1988 has actually been December. Drawing from personal experience, I would definitely say February has been the main snow month during my lifetime. There have been several winters where I've had to wait until February for any snow (if it ever arrived at all).

Thick fog.

I've just checked and the 31 days from 15th January 1917 to 14th February 1917 averaged -1.2C - more February 1986 than January 1963 but impressive nonetheless. As for this month, the models are up and down like an elastic yo-yo at the moment but yes it doesn't like true mildness will manifest itself, so 2C or thereabouts looks realistic (and would fit in nicely with my pre-month prediction of 2.0C :lol:).

Oh it's achievable, we just need that bit of "luck" so that the cold falls inside one calendar month. As has been pointed out, the month from mid-December to mid-January has averaged very close to freezing - since the Victorian era, only the legendary 1962/63 and legendary (first half at least) 1981/82 have had colder month-long periods so early in the season. However, since the cold has spread itself fairly evenly across two calendar months, the actual monthly CETs haven't been that impressive. Conversely, the likes of January 1985 and January 1987 have seen cold periods fit neatly into the calendar month. February 1986 saw the vast majority of that winter's very cold spell, hence the extremely low CET (-1.1C). The coldest month ever recorded (January 1795) saw the cold fit almost perfectly into it (only 31st December - 30th January was slightly colder than the calendar month). The same applies to heatwaves and summer months - like its cold counterpart January 1795, the hottest month ever recorded (July 2006) was only a day off being "perfect" (with the period 30th June - 30th July being only slightly hotter). The timing of the prolonged cold this winter hasn't been kind to monthly CET-lovers (myself included ), but it has still been rather exceptional.

February 1986 (-1.1C) (January 1820 and the Decembers of 1788, 1796 & 1878 all averaged exactly -0.3C)

Interesting that it shows the period 1st-10th January being as low as -2.4C, notably lower than Hadley (-1.5C up to the 10th). If Hadley is revised downwards to -1.8C, it would be the coldest first ten days of January since 1894 by a full 1C - or maybe even 1893 (1894 = -1.8C, 1893 = -2.0C). As for the rest of the month, I can't see the cold winning out again so 1-2C looks likely. I'm hardly an expert however...

16th December 2009 - 15th January 2010 = 0.15C Provisionally the third coldest such period since 1892/93 (after 1962/63 and 1981/82), which was just fractionally colder (a whole 0.006C colder!). The period 15th-14th was colder still (0.13C) - the third coldest since 1890/91 with its record cold December, which carried on into the second half of January. Does anyone know whether to expect if January's CET figures will be revised generally downwards or upwards at the end of the month - or is there no telling?

Damn it's hot! For the first time this year I went outside comfortably wearing one pair of trousers and one pair of socks. Still some snow and ice patches in the park and on quiet side streets. Does that count as another day with lying snow? <_<

We had some lying wet snow for a few hours before milder air set in. We had a White Christmas in 2004.

Never mind 3C, I'd be surprised to see this month reach 2C given the expectation that it will turn cold again after a very short mild interlude (which may not even be that mild). In fact, we need only 2.3C for the rest of the month to finish below 1C - and that's definitely on.

Not forgetting 1916/7, which started with a cold December and not only lasted through to February but also produced a very cold March and April. Also, I'm sure December 1962 was cold and wintry before the Big Freeze set in after Christmas Day.

Still snowing and with 3-4cm of fresh snow. This should definitely last until the weekend.

Scratch that - the flakes just got bigger.

It's coming down quite heavily here now, though as others have pointed out the grains are unusually light for the most part. Still getting on for an inch of fresh snow though, and those areas which had lost their previous snow cover have turned white again!

It hasn't completely stalled - just before I had no snow at all. You shouldn't have to wait too long. Or try checking the nearest lamp-post a bit harder...

Finally snowing here too (Sefton Park), and quite moderately at that!

It's so close I can smell it...

The temperatures had better get a move on then - still about 1C at the moment...

Indeed, it's remained just above freezing for the past couple of days with negligible diurnal variation. 2C here and increasingly slushy with some large puddles gathering. It still feels very cold in that icy wind.

(apologies if this is in the wrong section - I don't know where else to put it!) I'll start: 11th May 1985 = 9.0 1986 = 12.0 1987 = 9.6 1988 = 11.1 1989 = 10.3 1990 = 10.2 1991 = 10.1 1992 = 9.3 1993 = 15.6 1994 = 13.1 1995 = 6.6 (coldest) 1996 = 6.7 1997 = 9.1 1998 = 12.2 1999 = 13.3 2000 = 12.3 2001 = 17.2 2002 = 12.1 2003 = 9.8 2004 = 12.1 2005 = 7.2 2006 = 14.3 2007 = 11.2 2008 = 18.6 (hottest) 2009 = 10.0 Average birthday CET = 11.32

Very true, but that "relative to the time of year" bit is important. Apart from 1981/2, I can think of only 1962/3 having a sub-zero mid-December to mid-January period in the last 100 years. This winter is tantalisingly close to joining an exclusive club.