John Snow
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There can't be any doubt now though that the cold spell will happen, it is now about how much snow and how long the cold spell is going to last The snow early on in the week is pretty meaningless, dusting at best for those who get it but the real deal is the event on Thursday that is forecast with the shortwave, that would dwarf the levels of Feb 2009 if everything falls into place so all there is left to play for is what happens Thursday, the rest before that is set in stone now
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Its 100% nailed on that it is going to get a lot colder and that is in a reliable timeframe so all there is left to play for really is that shortwave, how much snow the country gets all depends on that shortwave, it misses us there will likely be modest amounts, we strike lucky with the shortwave this event will be something todays generation of kids will be telling their grandchildren about so its all down to the shortwave now to do its business. A nervous couple of days of model watching ahead
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Am almost in shock at these charts, best I have ever seen, christmas is all but cancelled because most of the country is in for wave after wave of deep snow, this cold spell shows no sign of ending not even in FI Spectacular
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http://cds047.lo1.hwcdn.net/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091210/18/159/h850t850eu.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0b34b3014015305c4045300c91803b4740453028&dopsig=2847bbcb8fe3513e99f1f84bbc7a4117 This chart, you are bang in the firing line and with the lake effect off the North Sea you will get the mother of all pastings if my limited understanding of charts is correct Respected forecasters have talked of you getting "hammered" so my 50cm prediction I believe will not be that wide of the mark
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My area will not do well out of the GFS at 168/180, we might get a dusting whereas Newcastle will get 50cm, Yorkshire about 40cm, Fife about 40cm and Lincolnshire about 30cm if the GFS is correct so I am not excited about the GFS more envious lol
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I suspect that the next ECM chart will fall into line with GFS and others, meetings and phone calls will be going on now to save face I think so I think that the next ECM will heavily backtrack and fall into line with GFS
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The teleconnection forecasts back up what the GFS and all the other sources come up with that are not called ECM, they may be respected but how can they get something like this so seemingly spectacularly wrong ?
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Thanks, can't wait up for them due to work tomorrow but eagerly await the 0z
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If ECM was getting any sort of support from other sources like UKMO, NOAA or anyone I would maybe believe them but every source is lining up with the GFS so ECM are either going to be hero or a laughing stock, given the sheer weight of sources they are up against I suspect laughing stock
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When does the 0z come out ?
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ECM's credibility is in tatters now, just hope they can spin it that there was some faults/glitches because they have bought themselves embarrassment and loss of credibility now
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What a contrast a few hours makes When the ECM came out it looked game over and just a few flurries now with the GFS charts COBRA will likely be in emergency session on Thursday and the weather dominate the news channels, its shocking how far apart 2 different charts are in such short space of time
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The shortwave with the crippling snow behind it from yesterday looks back in business too, 18Z most definitely an upgrade, thank god
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GFS is definitely an upgrade in terms of snow, looks game on again after the gloom of that now discredited ECM forecast
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I think the end result will be something in between the ECM and GFS Not the country paralysing blizzards of the GFS but not the cold dry with a bit of wintry mix ECM
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One rogue chart that is the total opposite to a very snowy GFS parallel that only came out an hour or so ago, ECM might be right but it is at odds with every other chart going so therefore I don't trust it
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ECM is probably wrong GFS/UKMO v ECM No contest really, ECM is wrong I think
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Some spectacular charts coming out this evening, massive upgrades compared with this morning and afternoon, large swathes of the country will get deep deep snow if things don't downgrade
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Yesterday it looked like the north particularly north east was going to be buried under 3ft of snow and today most of the activity seems to be further south with less snow, things will change again and again in next few days, not worth anyone getting excited or depressed
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pleased with the 12z from a purely selfish point of view, yesterday I had given up any hope but now I am confident of at least a dusting, hopefully further upgrades in coming days
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Yesterday was perhaps a bit too exciting from the models with predictions of 10ft drifts, several feet of lying snow, infrastructure in crisis and the like Today is a dose of reality, still some areas might get several feet of lying snow but it is not the "Day After Tomorrow 2" that was forecast yesterday
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You are right in the sweet spot for all these charts If I was to pick somewhere where the most snow will happen it would be right over you and rest of Newcastle, you are a lucky guy
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It's coming, passed the point of no return, its a question now of how deep the snow is going to be as opposed to will it hit the UK or not Some lucky place is going to get at least 30in of lying snow without doubt, wish it was down here
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Cold Spell General Discussion
John Snow replied to snowmadchrisuk's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Slightly off topic but is there any sites around where you can find by your postcode how far above sea level you are ? -
Model Output Discussion - Tuesday 20:25 -->
John Snow replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thanks, long time lurker but the excitement finally got the better of me lol