John Snow

The ECM is a once in a lifetime chart, pretty much makes a certainty of 3-4ft of lying snow for the North particularly Scotland and the NE and drifts could exceed 20-30ft, mammoth blizzards if the ECM comes off which it looks like it will now as 120hrs is reliable timeframe OK chart down here but at best we will get 3-4 inches which is OK but I can't help be envious at the lucky Geordies and Scots and Yorkshiremen that are going to get several feet of lying snow

Am absolutely shaking in shock here at the charts particularly the ECM which now has to be considered the winner, anyone under the age of about 35 is going to see a snowfest they have never seen in their lifetime with chronic drifts and several feet of lying snow, most of the north will have 3-4ft of lying snow with 20-30ft drifts by this time next weekend when the ECM comes off, not so good down here but even I am quite confident of 4 or 5 inches This event from Thursday onwards is goiing to absolutely bring the country to its knees and is reliable timeframe now. I am 31 and have never seen anything like this

If the ECM comes off the army will be working overtime :lol:

No one wants cold though they just want snow, can't imagine anyone would want cold weather and no snow Definite downgrade for snow for my area but great for the Midlands and North

People post for their region though If charts at 6z show snow flurries in the North and heavier snow for London then the 18z has massive blizzards for the whole country bar London which is going to stay dry and cold then while nationally it is an upgrade to a London based poster it is a downgrade, I don't think people are ignorant or anything they just post for what the models show for their region so even if nationally its an upgrade they are right to say downgrade if it is for their region

They are not gods though, I bet each of them have got stuff wrong in the past It is people's nature to focus on their area most, I couldn't care less if the outer hebrides is going to get hit by a polar low or whether Blackpool is going to get 5" or whether Weymouth is going to get thundersnow, what matters to me 90% is MY region and I comment on models with my London/South East hat on. If I call a chart an upgrade or a downgrade I am doing it from the perspective of my region even if it is an upgrade for Scotland or Ireland or nationally bar my region, I think most posters are the same and I see nothing wrong with perspective from a regional point of view

I don't know if I am considered a moaner because I used the word "downgrade" but I was referring entirely to the shortwave which is the key to the severe blizzards that would come with it, the path of the shortwave does seem to be a "downgrade" compared with last night, there will be weeks of cold, there will be reloads but my "downgrade" term was about the shortwave which looks like might miss us now

Don't panic, things will change a lot, this morning is a downgrade but so was yesterday morning then in the evening we got the most remarkable charts most of us have ever seen, things will change and change again

Not a bad set of charts this morning, not going to need the army delivering emergency supplies by helicopter between the Wash and Fife as would have been the case with yesterday evening's ECM but nice charts for a sustained period of snow with a few reloads, positive charts this morning

It is time the Met Office started briefing the media and putting out alerts about next week, the levels of snow and disruption unless there is a major downgrade is going to dwarf last Feb

Not the slightest sign of a downgrade on this run, if anything its an upgrade Severe weather is pretty much nailed on now, biggest backtrack in history if doesn't occur now

Yeah I claimed earlier that the block was set in for the winter till March or April as the Atlantic would not break it and that the UK would be pounded by reloads of Easterlies and NE's and I was laughed at but I seriously think it could happen, the Atlantic just does not look strong enough to smash what is up there

The BBC are way behind the times, pathetic Monday 14 December 2009 to Sunday 20 December 2009 Probably staying drier and colder than of late The probabilities have changed for this week and now favour continued quiet weather, i.e. light breezes, bright or sunny conditions, and dry days following frosty nights. Fog is less likely. There is a very slight possibility of a chilling southeasterly breeze coupled with frontal rain in Scotland. Monday 21 December 2009 to Sunday 3 January 2010 This bit covers Christmas Day! And as usual there is no strong probability of either wet or white! Indications are for below average temperatures, but for most at least an average amount of rain. So more often than not we will have high pressure giving us frost and sunshine, but with one or two incursions of frontal rain. If a cold southeasterly wind met Atlantic rain over us then you have the pretty white scenario. Sadly, there is no reason to forecast this at the moment.

You are way underplaying the NE and SE scotland due to the lake effect That area will get 50-70cm I would say over the week not 5-15 Rest I agree with though

This has to be a rogue chart surely ? Britain would be set for its record ever snowfalls if 144-240 came off The pub run can take things to extremes but this makes the pub run seem sane Truily incredible

Yeah you are right lucky You are pretty much programmed for 2-3ft of snow by next Sunday night unless there is a big shift in the models

All the models are supporting it now and when that happens its a pretty safe bet 2-3ft of snow for the NE next week

Massive massive upgrade The shortwave and accompanying snowfall is pretty much nailed on now

So you don't think the GFS for Thu/Fri shows much if any snow for the areas that hit the shortwave (NE / Scotland) ?

The shortwave is going to hit us on a direct hit if the GFS comes off, well hit the NE and Scotland and that will result in massive snowfalls, even I as anything but an expert can see that Thursday and Friday next week is filled with snow for NE and Scotland

Just a bit but I really do seeing the blocking hard to shift as the Atlantic just does not have the strength to shift that stuff above us so yes I can see the cold spell lasting till the spring As for your area you are going to get hammered unless downgrades occur, am really looking into the idea of travelling up to Newcastle and staying in a Travelodge to watch the action unfold but I will watch the charts till Monday before deciding on that

Yeah anywhere north of and including Newcastle would get at least a foot of snow from severe blizzards Thursday thanks to the direct hit shortwave on the UK, from a purely selfish point of view I hope that it shifts south again like 6z so we get some action down here but I do feel we are heading for a possible record winter with that blocking being hard to shift till maybe March or April and reload after reload battering the UK from the north and east

Don't understand all the doom and gloom here, looks like a big upgrade for the shortwave and that is the important thing for next week, the early week stuff is boring fluff and always was, the shortwave was always the precursor to the massive blizzards and the shortwave is looking great here

Chart looks fine to me, don't understand why it is panic stations on here, if I was offered that chart as final outcome it would be "Deal Mr Banker"

Thursday especially with the "lake effect" should be enough to produce a foot or so of snow to Eastern counties from the Wash northwards to about Fife unless there is some backtracking by the GFS in next couple of days