Country Boy
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Posts posted by Country Boy
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Just now, Sheldon Cooper said:
Might get Sleet are you a ramper or not it's hard to tell lol.
The rampers can be found on the Model thread.
they are all ways looking 10 days plus charts, and they never come off ,
Stick with the five day met.office charts, they are more accurate
my brother lives on the North Lincolnshire coast, and has just reported
showers moving in from the sea are of rain......
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Funny old Day , -1c here this morning, and it rained. We are not in a good set up at the moment for any snow.
North sea is above average temperature, I did see it mentions that it 2c warmer than the average.
Plenty of winter days ahead
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7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Yes, easterly incoming.
Yes an Easterly is incoming.
But no snow, the air has a mix of warmer European air.
Also the North Sea, is above average temperature at the moment
This will result in Rain I am afraid
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content://com.amazon.cloud9.FileProvider/images/screenshot/1609359867551365863429.gif
Interesting little visit from the East on Sunday, is the Beast showing a visit
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43 minutes ago, E17boy said:
Hi Good Afternoon all
Hope everyone is well and safe been a frosty start in Walthamstow today but quite a bit of cloud floating around now. Some of the high level cloud is the source of that low pressure that is going to miss us.
The BBC have been up and down with their forecasts this week seems to change day by day. As I mentioned in my post yesterday a few days ago they were predicting quite a few snow showers to cross our region in time for new year, but that is no longer the case.Also I think what the programmed forecasts are streaming today is behind to what we are currently seeing in the models today so fingers crossed if the models are correct with this Easterly I would imagine the live forcasts will catch up with it in the next few days. So I would not worry about the BBC forecasts just yet unless they are seeing something different from their high resolution data that the models have not picked up, but to my understanding I think their live forecasts are behind the current models unless they update this evening.
Lets hope we do get these easterlies as I have always thought they are the best for our region.
Hope everyone stays safe
kind regards
I am an old Walthamstow Boy, and remember the winter of 1962/63...Great fun that was, but poor old milkman trying to get round and big queue for the paraffin man..Remember BBC now get their forecasts from Meto , but the met office with their massive computers in Exeter all ways seem to come out on top.
Just heard that the Beast from the East has booked his UK ticket.
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New updated long range from Met Office
Likely remaining cold throughout this period with the risk of wintry hazards. It will be dry at times, with the driest and clearest conditions likely in the west and northwest, and showers likely further east. These showers often wintry with hill snow but with a chance of snow falling to lower-levels at times. There is potential for spells of more organised precipitation, accompanied by stronger winds to move north from the continent into southern and central areas. Additionally, there is also the potential for precipitation to move into northern areas if high pressure declines. Both scenarios could bring an associated snow risk particularly over hills. Temperatures are likely to be below average bringing the risk of frost and freezing fog along with very cold overnight temperatures over any snow cover.
Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 29 Dec 2020
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Not sure how many on here remember the winter of 1962/63.
But if you want to see a real Winter go to
YouTube , search winter 62/ 63. Sit back and enjoy the snow.
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1 hour ago, Catacol said:
Afternoon all - I’m a bit late to the party today....though not in the same league as @Scott Ingham who has pulled an all nighter and seems still be be going. As others have said - get to bed man!
Interesting data this morning - a little wobble from GFS overnight but nothing out of the ordinary in that regard. The models are beginning to pick up on change data post New Year and it will widen the range of solutions.
So where are we? In no particular order...
Momentum products show that we are in the downward slope of the most recent phase. Frictional torque has topped out and is likely falling already (chart dated 24/12)
and mountain torque is also falling - part of the ongoing wax/wane cycle and the never ending attempt of the earth and atmosphere to move momentum to net zero.
The next pacific jet streak on the back of the significant EAMT first widely advertised by Eric Webb on Twitter is moving into the semi-reliable window and this will signal the next upward momentum phase. As this jet ploughs through the pacific it will act as an eddy creator, and given the relatively weak zonal wind speed at the moment the wave breaks will be more significant. Always easier to break a relatively static pattern than cause an eddy in an already swift moving pattern.
Given lag impacts of this streak what is extended NWP looking like today? The gfs op is odd - reignites the Atlantic and then responds to the momentum state by throwing up a peculiar ridge from Canada to Greenland.
I suspect the gfs bias towards a cyclonic Atlantic signal is causing it some grief here. Better is the ECM solution which we can only see out to 240 but shows a more likely mid Atlantic ridge.
With a trough already embedded over Europe - and assuming this is the “correct” path - then greater intensification of the cold over NW Europe will follow. Strat products flag this pattern well, with the forecast for the strat/trop boundary maintaining a strong Euro trough signal
and GFS at 240 also shows a Euro trough signal
Putting this all together....we have a waning phase about to start, but without much zonal momentum the pattern will stay blocked. Then the next uptick (wax) after New Year that will reenergise the ridge, reinforce the Euro trough and intensify the cold. Note this is all BEFORE any SSW impacts. Not time yet to muse with any precision on these, though I’m sticking with a projection of a split.
Coldish week this week. Staying so beyond New Year. And then cold digging in harder by zero hour of 7 Jan. @chionomaniac may well be correct in aiming at Jan 10....but for variety I’ll hold my crosshairs on Jan 7. Beyond that? Wait and see...
Well it's my Birthday 7th January, I shall see if your post is correct......Hoping for a white birthday
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Brother in law who lives in Onterio. Some up to 5 inches of snow this morning.
And it's the Eastern Seaboard. Cold moving our way.
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Well done some of you guys.. icon for my area in North Essex was spot on
We got 2 inches of snow, . Hope some of your Christmas day icons come true
A white Christmas will cheer everyone up
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Forum Team...it's time to move on..the forum is Heading In To April.
We are now into June, is it time to change...thanks
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Hello agree with you dazzle, I am in sible as well cloud keeps moving from the North . Hope the strong sun burns it back to the coast
and agree
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1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:
Most orders are made automatically at places like Tesco, I’m not sure why your blaming the store managers for customers behaving like they are retarded.
My local store is a co.op and it's one pack per trolly, ..
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8 minutes ago, SnowBear said:
This panic buying is crazy. I can understand some of it with people perhaps working from home and maybe need loo rolls and food that would otherwise normally be at work but the excessive hoarding is rediculous.
I have a relation working in transport at a large Tesco warehouse, he said the warehouse is stacked with goods, it's just like Christmas, Its store managers to blame, it will lead to war time rationing of panic buying continues
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1 minute ago, Nick L said:
I suspect it is very much independent of the ban. That is, even if the ban was lifted the govt would advise against travel like they have done with Spain and Italy.
But Ryanair. Are still flying to Spain. ?????
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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Yep,
I'm still unsure whether it is a natural cycle or GW, or perhaps a bit of both.But whichever way you look at it, winters here and in Europe are getting milder.
Good I say, hope it upsets cash greedy energy companies
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From across the pond...one foot of snow dumped on Niagra..in one hour..First of the season.
From my brother in law who said it's right on time.
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The Hurricane Center has Lorenzo heading to the West of Ireland and up towards Iceland.
At this stage it looks like the UK will get strong winds from its southerly track.
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All the charts are at The Hurricane Center.
just do a search for the site
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Not much rain here today. Had a short spell around midday, but then a dry afternoon. It is very light rain at the moment, but the main feature of the day has been how cool it's been.
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3c here in Clacton..it's to warm ..it's been that all day, just shows how warm the North sea is, We have to blame the hot summer we had
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16 minutes ago, pages said:
Wow is that really chafford. Left lakeside at 8 was coming down hard but nothing had settled. Came through laiandon hills and it was like the Alps was scary with a van going sideways in front. Got the other side to noak bridge and nothing is settling. It's mad how localising the difference between settling and not is.
But laindon hills is high ground..that's the difference
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8 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:
Chelle goes into work Monday- everyone it's gonna snow Tuesday not much but loads on Thursday boss even allows us to leave early last night in preparation - no snow. Tonight chelle goes into work no snow now gonna warm up bit next week - boss says no it's def gonna snow tonight I say no no no- just looked out office window.............. ❄❄❄
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No.No.No
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Just seen the forecast temperature for next Wednesday 10c..make the most of the snow
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Rain patchy here in North Essex, wind not to bad, just enough to
move trees that still have some leaf.
Been looking at conditions in Tromso in North Norway.
And it should be a -30c at this time of year..but...it's a Plus 4c.
Something is seriously going wrong with the weather.