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recklessabandon

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Posts posted by recklessabandon

  1. Sleety rain if I remember correctly - you could probably search for the old thread if you want to be reminded of it. Tonight is much colder though, Consett will do well this time around.

    Its a memory that's probably best left to lie then, so I'll hear you on this one.

    Far less meltwater on the roads today suggesting the inland areas have stayed colder throughout the day than yesterday, infact Medomsley Bank was very noticeable at around 16.30, it was nearly dry in places!!!

  2. I think NAE may well be on the money with PPN totals, the topography of the North-east means that under this scenario for the next 24 hours 30mm is probably widely achievable......there is some modelling that suggests an element of air mixing in with upper temperatures of less than -5, especially toward the coast, this has not been indicated in the south and east of England (where lower uppers have been present) and accordingly, most/all PPN appears to have been snow away from the coasts. I suspect we may need around 500' of elevation to 'buy' us the insurance of getting a 1:10 rain-to-snow ratio, which if it comes off will bring much of County Durham and Northumberland east of the A1 to a complete standstill, especially if the council take the approach they did yesterday morning of waiting until the snow ceases prior to road treatment (Sensible IMO though). If I was guessing I would suggest that where good snow cover is present, more will come, where snow has been thawing rapidly today, sleet and wet snow may be the best on offer tomorrow.

    From a personal perspective Id like to see us all get 30cm + and get on with business as usual and send a giant 'ha ha' to the soft southerners.....

  3. Very much a case of nowcasting this feature later today I think. I suspect the lack of clear warnings from the METO at this stage are reflecting the uncertainty. I have mentioned in other Topics how features tracking through the North Sea can be very difficult to model due to the lack of local data (eg METO has no MAWS in the North Sea). The warm sector is a close call, a few miles (well within margins of error) could make a huge difference. I would suggest that Consett, Stanley, Tow Law, etc etc will get at least 10cm fresh snow, perhaps more, but east of the A1 is very unclear....I am not sure I'd be particularly excited if I lived on the coast at this stage. Like every one of these little North Sea features.....somewhere will probably get hammered, I am going to guesstimate that locally 20cm will be possible, either in the Cheviots or the NYMs....

    In the bigger picture the models are still pushing back the breakdown, this morning, we have gone back another day into Thursday/Friday. Even beyond that, I wouldn't call it 'mild'.....

  4. how do dewpoints alter airflow?

    they dont, but the point is that the more easterly element is coming straight off the relatively warm sea, whereas the more southerly flow is coming over land, which, is canny cold atm, so, rising DPs along the coastal strip can be a good indicator of an airflow modified by the 'warm' sea

    The worst thing about this is that, although the last few years have produced a few of these, in general these events are rare... so for one to come along and you miss out by the odd mile while most get clobbered is, well - this is why I'm pretty down - the next chance for something like this might not be for many, many years.

    cant believe its not hammering in Durham??? I guess the wind flow is favouring the Consett area due to some degree of orographic PPN

  5. I am always nervous about frontal snow in the NE. By last night things were looking quite average to be fair in terms of snowfall amount. The rain shaodw effect will nearly always cause dissapoinment. The fronts arent riding a jet train, and are infact being pushed back to some degree, however, because it is a slider, it is increasingly looking like increase easterley winds will be dragged in off the sea, with I think, our best chances coming from convective activity from the back edge of the system as it pushes south eastwards, this I think could result in some good accumulations through the night on Friday and Saturday, and possibly even into Sunday. The risk is that a east/southereasterley has a fair bit of sea to cross, resulting in modification on the coasts back to sleet/wet snow. My guess at the moment.....grey cloudy skies much of tomorrow with light to occasionnally moderate snow in the evening, with heavy burst/convective snow by Saturday morning.

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