Matt12

The charts still look pretty good to me.<_< IMO the problem is that people's expectations are unrealistically high. Many people talk about the upcoming spell (and synoptics) being similar to the winter of 47/63. However, whether you believe in man-made global warming or not, the fact remains - winters aren't as severe as they used to be (i.e. pre-1970s). I always tend to find that the reality often ends up somewhere in the middle of what people forecast; that is, somewhere between a mild spell (often forecasted by frustrated people who insist that it will be spring-like weather by day x) and an armageddon-type situation, where the whole of the UK will be in chaos (overly optimistic snow-lovers).

As I suspected, the GFS ensembles have just now started to revert back to a much colder outlook. I hope they stay like this this time!

Major downgrade on the GFS ensembles. Looks a lot less promising promising than last night, that's for sure. Still, the charts keep changing so no reason for them not to upgrade again this evening/tomorrow. We would need an upgrade on the GFS ensembles to get a decent cold spell imo.

I reckon to get a 'sustained' cold spell we will need a strongly negative AO like late December/early January. The AO then was even lower than those of the famous winters of yesteryear, even if this winter hasn't been anywhere near as cold as, say, the famous winter of 1962/3. It seems that to get truly cold winter spells that last beyond a week and a half/few weeks, reminiscent of previous eras, we now need exceptional synoptics. The good news is that late dec/early Jan proved that this is still possible, if less likely. I can't really get excited at the mo because the weather in the next few weeks looks like being not particularly cold on the whole, but not that mild either. Unless the AO is forecasted to drop significantly, I think we will be left with what we have at the moment.

I think this is one of those very rare events where us in East Hertfordshire might benefit more than those further East i.e. in Norfolk/Suffolk.

I'm no weather expert, but the latest GFS ensembles seem to suggest that, in the long-term, things could go either way i.e. either very cold or slightly less cold. Although it's way out in F1 territory, I'd guess at this stage that it will get pretty cold in more than a week's time, but not as cold as it has been (although cold enough for snow again by about the 19th/20th, after a brief slightly warm-up).

It seems like there has been a pretty serious downgrade since last night. Even in the short-term (i.e. within the next few days), the BBC are going for milder conditions. This is backed up by the ensembles, which suggest that warm-up is imminent, with milder air working its way across the UK within the next few days to the extent that coastal parts already have a high risk of seeing rain/sleet instead of snow. Still time for the models/weather to change though, I guess. Certainly a big backdown since last night though, by the looks of things.:lol:

Exactly:lol: Whatever happens in the coming days in my area (forecasters now think we will all see some, it seems), I'm just happy that the outlook now looks cold.

And these weren't my forecasts/opinion - I was just going by the BBC anyway. To be honest, I don't have enough weather knowledge to form forecasts.

I didn't forecast anything originally. All I said is (and I'll quote ALL of the contents of my previous posts, in order):- "Yeah, but my main concern was (and is) that this will mainly affect East Anglia and areas South of London, with areas just above London getting next to nothing. I never had any doubt that Kent and East Anglia will get a pasting." "Yeah, I think anything is still possible. Snow events like these often just evolve and surprise everyone, with some areas that weren't expecting much getting a pasting!" "Well, as I said the situation will inevitably evolve, so we may well see some heavy snow still in Herts. We'll see!" Those were all of the posts btw<_<

Stay positive mate. I reckon we'll all get a few surprises in the coming days.

Well, it seems the BBC have backtracked now (for the thousandth time today:rolleyes:) and are going for snow across all south eastern areas, including Hertfordshire. Looking at what's ahead, I think we will get at least an inch or 2 in the next 48 hours, maybe more.

Well, as I said the situation will inevitably evolve, so we may well see some heavy snow still in Herts. We'll see!

Yeah, but my main concern was (and is) that this will mainly affect East Anglia and areas South of London, with areas just above London getting next to nothing. I never had any doubt that Kent and East Anglia will get a pasting.

Yeah, I think anything is still possible. Snow events like these often just evolve and surprise everyone, with some areas that weren't expecting much getting a pasting!

It is snowing here very lightly at the moment, but isn't heavy enough to top up what we already have. Hope this changes tonight.<_<

I hope so. I would be surprised if we don't get a snow shower at some point during tonight/tomorrow. I just hope the snow doesn't fizzle out before it reaches us!<_<

Problem is that they seem to be dying out and moving south eastwards, according to the last met rainfall radar.<_<

Yeah, was the BBC forecast. They have got it wrong so many times this week, and keep changing them today, but it got me thinking that perhaps East Herts won't see anything/much. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.<_<

According to the latest forecasts, it looks like tonight's and tomorrow's snow will be mainly confined to Kent, South of London, parts of London and the northern most coastal parts of East Anglia. A big downgrade on earlier it seems.:lol:

I am no weather expert, but it seems to me that the latest GFS ensembles show the cold versus warm battle was never a foregone conclusion. It seems, if anything, that it is trending towards the colder - anyone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Well, the models were still 'hinting' at 'milder' air arriving sometime around the 17th-23rdst. However, things have backtracked slightly this afternoon, so who knows? I think things are still up in the air as far as the long-term is concerned, and it seems like there is no reason that the models won't backtrack even more.

It's hardly surprising people are skeptical about a 'so-called' mild breakdown given that it's still in F1: would anyone, for instance, take it as gospel if the charts showed a major snow event in F1? I think we'd all be rightly dubious until we were in closer to the actual event. Though, that doesn't mean it won't happen.

I certainly hope so!!

Snow falling here now in Bishops Stortford! Hope much more is to come. Anyone have any ideas on how much more will fall?