Matt12

I must just be in the colder air - temp has been around 0-2C for the past few hours. Not sure if the precip will reach this far inland though (I'm in East Herts).

I wonder if it would snow further inland, away from the east coast? Even a light covering would be nice.

Guys, check out the latest met office rainfall radar - looks like there may be increasing activity out over east anglia! Hope this turns into something.

Don't know if it's just wishful thinking, but there does seem to have been an increase in shower activity just off the East Anglian coast in the past hour or so.

Within the bottom dozen? Not sure where you've been for the last 20 years, but this is definitely one of the coldest/snowiest starts to winter I can remember (i.e. since the late 80s/early 90s)! Also, it's worth bearing in mind that charts do change with regards to precipitation. The current charts CANNOT accurately predict snowfall in 3 or 4 days' time, let alone in a week! If the cold stays with us for another 2/3 weeks, it will almost definitely snow everywhere at some point!

It will definitely turn a lot colder in the coming days. Not sure about snow/snow amounts though - that is still not certain.

It looks like it is very likely to remain cold until at least the 10th of Jan. All in all, good chances of some proper cold weather, I'd say.

I disagree. Just because we have had a rather cold month, it doesn't even go close to disproving GW. In fact, the latest data out suggests that this decade has been by far the warmest on record, with an overall temperature increase of almost 1C! Let's face it - the weather is significantly milder than in even 20 or 30 years ago. A small short-term anomaly, such as that experienced this month, only proves that cold spells are still possible in Britain (and likely), even in this warming climate. Moreover, the climate is still cyclical; hence, our climate is still subject to cyclical changes (i.e. colder years/wamer years) in the same way that it was decades ago. It's just that we are unlikely to ever get winters like those in 60s/70s ever again. That said, I think the current CET is looking decidedly cold. Perhaps it's a sign of things to come!:smiliz46:

I doubt anything too extreme (i.e. cold/snow of record-breaking proportions) will verify, as there is far too much uncertainty at the moment. You only have to see how the South-east was supposed to get significant snow during thursday/friday earlier today, but now this looks increasingly unlikely according to all the latest weather forecasts (we probably won't see much/just the odd light shower). This just illustrates how we can't even forecast a day/2 days ahead at the moment. I seriously doubt that we will have anything more than a sustained cold period of weather with some snow. Still, interesting weather ahead, even if it won't be in the record books.

According to the Itv forecast, no snow for the south east on Thursday/Friday. I'm a bit disappointed to be honest.

As I understand it, the Midland and Wales are the only southern regions at threat of snow tomorrow and Wednesday - with heavy rain in the South East/East Anglia. However, as we reach Thursday/Friday, the snow risk moves to the South East/East Anglia and we could see a lot of snow.

Actually I'd prefer mild rubbish as at least we wouldn't have to shiver for nothing!! Precip changes quickly though. No one can tell how much precip we will get in 5 days' time, let alone a week or 2. Also, we have gone from poor charts to armageddon type scenarios back to poor charts all in one day!! Kinda sums up the uncertainty imo.

What does anyone think the chances of Hertfordshire seeing snow tomorrow, or in the next few days? I'm interested in what others think the chances or risks are as I haven't a clue.

I have a hunch that there will be a bit of an upgrade tomorrow, with the cold reaching further south and enduring longer into January (say, about the 7th or 8th). Time just to wait and see.

Not what the latest BBC weather report was saying. I think that some places will definitely see snow, it's just a case of how many and how long the cold spell lasts (and its severity).

Two things to remember folks:- 1) The charts are fairly decent at the mo. Granted, they don't paint an armageddon type scenario, but it's not at all bad. 2) Charts change rapidly. There will probably be some pretty major changes in the coming days - whether they be good or bad. All in all, I'd would have settled for the current situation.

The only certainty is that the charts WILL change in the coming days! Look how much they have changed, even since yesterday!!!

True. I did exaggerate quite a lot. I would still be surprised if we have a 15 day cold spell though. Having said that, I would absolutely love to be proved wrong. Whatever happens, we will probably see some snow shortly after the new year, which will be nice, especially having just had a cold spell before Christmas as well.

True, I don't doubt that. My point was only that most people probably don't believe a sustained long-term cold period will happen. If it did, we'd take it. But because many are probably dubious, they would prefer a good short-term dumping (at a short-term range) over good long-term synoptics which might not materialise anyway.

I think that most people would prefer a good dumping simply because we can't be sure that good synoptics (more than 5+days away) will bring about a prolonged cold spell. In modern times, good synoptics have nearly always ended in major disappointment. Also, to be be totally honest, I don't think a even larger teapot is capable of producing a cold spell of more than 7 days or so - anywhere in England anyway. At least it hasn't in my lifetime, and I'm 27 now. I would take a good short-term cold snap - with a good dumping - especially as where I live in the south east of England always seems to be too sheltered for the worst of the snowfall - we only got 2 inches recently, despite the south east being battered by snowstorms! Either way, I hope everyone gets the snow you want. Here's to keeping our fingers crossed.

Judging by the ensembles, I wouldn't even say it's a given that Northern parts of the UK will stay in a prolonged cold spell i.e. beyond 3rd/4th of Jan. Look at the huge scatter, and the GFS operational and GEFS control are well above the mean in many northern locations, including northern England/Scotland, from around the 3rd onwards! I still think it's all to play for for everywhere, including Northern parts - if you want anything beyond a short cold snap, that is.

Is it me, or do the latest ensembles offer more hope for a white Christmas for the South? The latest outputs seem to delay the arrival of any milder air for the South until the 26th/27th. Matt.

Yep, I pretty much agree with all of this. It's also worth bearing in mind - which I didn't really express in my previous post - that it's impossible to make particularly accurate forecasts of Christmas day at the present time when it's so far away, and there is such a diverse range of outputs for anything beyond the next 3 or 4 days.

If I'm honest, the indications today are that the South will become milder by Christmas eve/Christmas day, with the Northern half of the UK staying cold until about the 27th or 28th, when the milder air will reach there as well. If I were to make a forecast at this stage it would be:- Southern half of England - temperatures increase to around 4 or 5 degrees on Christmas day, with quite a bit of rain around. Temperatures, at this stage, look set to stay pretty average (4-8 C) until at least early January, although this is far from certain. Northern half of the UK - Cold, with plenty of snow around until about the 27th/28th of December, when the milder air arrives. Temperatures will then recover. In summary, I think the chances of the Northern half of the UK seeing a white Christmas is high, but it looks increasingly unlikely in the South. Temperatures will recover before the New year. Matt.

I guess there is always a chance - there still seems to be a lot of uncertainty. I am no weather expert, but the ensembles are hinting at a return to milder weather (in the south at least) for around Christmas eve/Christmas day. It, at least, seems the most likely scenario at the moment IMO. Does anyone else think that the latest charts are a downgrade for the south? It's just that the long-term situation down south seems to have deteriorated a bit since earlier today, with a return to milder weather (but not mild per se) seeming more likely into the new year. Still, things are far from certain, especially considering the inaccurate nature of long-term forecasting. Matt.