snow1975
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Posts posted by snow1975
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You're joking the only thing remotely interesting is the Scandi high, any brutal cold in the USA is going nowhere unless you can cement over the Atlantic Ocean,
It happened in 1984, we had nearly 2ft of snow up here. Look at this chart for 31st Jan 2014.
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I think this winter has been okay so far, sure December didn't give anything great but I think in it's own way it was impressive with the Atlantic storms it was just constant for the whole month with parts of the UK recording some of the highest wind speeds for a long time. Some of the storms did miss the UK though and were very extreme out in the Atlantic some had over 70mph average wind speeds for a short time as they bombed out. If your into extreme weather December was very impressive. Also I remember the end of the first week of December brought snowfall to a few places in Scotland as well. Overall it was a mild month but I remember long range forecasts always hinted that December was going to be above average so I never expected it to be cold.January so far has been more settled and I would say slightly colder, I've recorded my lowest temperatures of the winter this week. The first half of January was forecast to be average or mild but the very end of January into February is the time period where I think we may be heading into a colder weather pattern. You just never know what's around the corner. The models have been disagreeing with each other earlier than usual and keep changing about in the longer term.
Here's the GFS 12Z chart for 31st Jan, which shows a very cold westerly heading our way, if the Scandi block can bugger aff east and let it in. Potentially a snowy 1st Feb! That has a Jan 84 look about it!
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Looks like the ECM00Z is siding with yesterday's GFS12Z. Easterly? What easterly. Looking zonal next week and beyond. Head to the hills if you want snow where there'll be plenty of it at times.
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Apart from a limpet easterly attempt on the ECM/GFS early next week, the GFS 12Z becomes increasingly zonal in FI. Its IF I know, but it looks increasingly wintry the further north you go with plenty of snow for the ski centres.
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The present weather has gone stale. Some charts from the GFS 12z. Some very interesting charts appearing in FI with increasing zonal activity. Cold air digging in behind the lows is likely to bring wintry showers with plenty snow for the ski centres.
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Stargazing Live is on BBC1 right now. The Aurora is expected tonight, from midnight onwards. Huge CME occurred last night. 'X rated' so a big Solar Wind event.
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Lets no forget the Jam model, a decent model. Check oot this jammy chart. Notice the WAA up western Greenland associated with the big low exiting Canada....jist what we need for a Greenie.
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With ref to -51...with it being North America, you are never too sure what they mean. Is it the actual air temperature, is it centigrade or Fahrenheit or the anomaly or the windchill effect temperature??
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A heavy shower passed over at 1.40pm, no thunder and sun out now.
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120 UKMO is out!!http://images.meteociel.fr/im/521/UW42-7_inn3.GIF
Back to the Future
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Gfs continuing to be the fly in the ointment! Blocking virtually non existent on this run!
t192
I'm no model expert but you often here the seasoned pros often saying the GFS 12Z is notoriously progressive?
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Friends in Poland just eee mailed me ,they are expecting frigid temp to set in round about the 13th .
Thats not surprising with -20C uppers pushing south.
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Ice pellets (irregular with snow-like flakes) with rain at 3.45pm falling from high cloud base, probably Altostratus. Dry-bulb 5.0c/wet-bulb 3.6C/dew 1.9C
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The ECM 12z ends with a meridonal pattern across the Atlantic. Mild SSW flow over the UK with WAA, could do with a more S'ly flow up to Svaalbard to help inflate a Scandi high and drag in the deep cold pool from Europe. As it stands, looks like heading for Greece or SE England.
There must be a pattern change coming since the model runs are inconsistent eg. Thursdays zonal ECM vrs yesterday's reverse zonal 12Z vrs todays meridonal pattern.
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Cold zonality in the latter frames of ECM ought to deliver snow showers to Scotland especially above 200 metres.
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I put that cam on (linky if anyone is interested)
http://firstwebcam.com/rochester/live-webcams-jines-restaurant
Looks like they had a nice dump
AACH, we had mare snaw than that in Nov/Dec 2010
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It isn't
Rinse and repeat - zonal all the way.
Those westerlies could be pretty cold especially the further north you are. Plenty snow above 300m I think.
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Morning all! Wet and windy here again...surprise! been trying to sort out my latest ( cheapo! ) weather station. Bought it in November but the pressure has always been way out, at least 20mb lower than my other two. the problem is the instructions. Yes, they are in English, but were obviously written by someone whose first language is not English. Very frustrating! However, will spend some more time this afternoon pressing buttons and see where it gets me!
Looking as if it might be wet and windy again at Hogmanay, would I be right?
get yourself a decent one http://www.russell-scientific.co.uk/kew-barometers-11-c.asp
costs approx £1350, a scientific mercury barometer will last 50+years and will remain accurate/stable.
My station mean temperature anomaly for the month so far stands at +1.7C compared to the 1981-2010 average..
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Is that a narrow line of thunderstorms, down there in the southwest?
Could be orographic enhancement over the upslopes of the Moors. The seeder-feeder mechanism.
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Any chance of some Jan 1984 action in Jan 2014?
Joe B is banging on about a Jan 94 pattern in the US. Jan 94 was unremarkable over here.
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I think 959mb is the lowest I've recorded here in the last few years, which was Jan 2012.
you are going to beat that!
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I spent 6 years in southern England, 3 at Uni and 3yr working in central London. I love the climate doon there.....hot summers, big thunderstorms. Didn't get a cold winter when I was there. I think its easier to get aff with an English lassie than a Scotttish one.
The English like to take the pish oot the Scots and vice versa. Just take it on the chin and move on.
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Ditto!! Ha, another postie! We are like the 4th emergency service, always oot in shiite weather!
Yes, people must get their junk mail. Even if a red warning, we are still sent oot and thats just after watching a health and safety video.
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Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Don't get me wrong, I've nothing against easterlies, I live in the east of Scotland, and we get plenty of snow from the east given the right synoptics eg March 2013. The current set-up is stale.