[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

While it does have it’s moments (and can feel like a chasing for cold and/or hot weather thread), the variety of members we have in here with variable amounts of knowledge is what makes it an interesting place to be in. The understanding and depth of the charts/data/models a number on this thread is demonstrate is amazing. It feels like such a delight to have such information on here and something that’s valued.

But even without such knowledge, the suspense and tension from those going after particular weather types provides some additional fun and excitement in-between the more serious posts. As such, I believe this thread can cater to anyone. From beginners to non-beginners. Anything is welcomed. I hope we can make this be a place so anyone can feel comfortable having a go at discussing the models. 

So do keep up the good work guys and gals  (and remember, if your post is not about the models, is insulting or just tries to stir up trouble, you can expect vanishing cream to be poured all over it. Plus you’ll be sweeping up the cobwebs in our stinky dungeons )

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

The 12Z JMA also drops the Scandinavian trough a fairly good way to the East of the UK with a clean looking Northerly early next week:

You can then see it becomes quite perilous with that Atlantic Low out West trying to nudge further East. But it manages to avoid the same path as the ECMWF with a little Low splitting off the main Atlantic Low. This little Low heads East/South-East through the far South of the UK into the nearby continent. A wedge of High Pressure re-amplifies in the Atlantic bringing the chilly/cold Northerly flow back:

The main Atlantic Low attempts to come back in, but a weak wedge of heights then develop over Northern UK and the Low has no choice but to slide South-East into France. Then drawing in Easterly winds over the UK:

 

The cold and wintry weather take victory. 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

26 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'm not feeling it today. That thick cloud has been around 10 days or so and it's starting to trigger my sad blocking out sunlight. Maybe next week once the sun comes ... either way I shall be dragging myself out into the garden come Saturday now it's March! Time starts to fly ...

Yep, be nice for the blanket in the sky to disappear as been dreary in the last few days. 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Finally into March which, although starting on a cold note (though some white stuff again would be nice) it must feel like a relief for those with Winter Blues or Seasonal Affective Disorder. Same for those who love the Spring. March can still feel like a wintry month, but then a month where spots of green become increasingly noticeable on some trees and bushes with the daylight getting even longer. Some warmer/much milder weather being possible.

I remember back in January how it felt like such a stretch to get to March. And now it’s here. How time does fly!

It would be reasonable to say that while some who despise Winter and/or have SAD will feel some satisfaction being into the new month, it would probably take until April to bring further contentment for some with Winter Blues/SAD/A dislike of Winter. Hardest part of the year feels like it’s mostly out the way with though. 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

The lack of snow this Winter makes the thought of seeing some of the white stuff in March rather exciting. One thing to shaken up this cloudy dull weather. 

Don’t think I would want it to go on throughout all of March, as I would love to see some March Spring warmth also. Too much looking at the models becomes distracting and fatiguing after a while, particularly when showing outlooks that tickle our fancy (cold, snow, warm weather, thundery outbreaks, sunshine, gales). Sometimes I miss it when there wasn’t all these charts and data available to us. You could still get forecasts for the next few days ahead. But there was more of a sense of mystery as to how the weather could pan out. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think this great informative post is useful to repost this morning.

 

Only just noticed you beat me to it with one of the articles posted about what’s needed for snowfall Sorry I didn’t see it earlier Certainly a great post this read this morning.

Just one thing to add while I’m here (just examples from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and GEM below at 144 hours)…

06Z GFS

0Z ECMWF

 

00Z UKMO

00Z GEM

…and not much desire for them now to sink the Western UK High/Ridge into Europe. Something that most operational models, except UKMO, had tried to do on and off in the last 2 (or 3) days. Good support from the models to see a big bulk of that ridge being scooped up towards Greenland/Western Iceland. 

Although the GFS 06Z had made things fairly complicated with that shortwave/Low it dropped down from Iceland (which admittedly sent down a fairly shallow and little area of the Icelandic/Greenland ridging briefly into Europe), the cold from the North via the Scandinavian trough having a less frustrating time in general reaching the UK on the above runs due to them trying to keep the heart of the ridging to the North West of the UK. The UKMO above looking the tidiest with the evolution of the Greenland High and cold flow from the North/North-East.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Noticed we do seem to get a lot of questions and debates from the discussions in here, particularly from the worry about whether the 850 hPa temperatures in the models, will be cold enough to deliver snow. Now, clearly, there are several factors as to whether snow will come to visit your area from above. Both John Holmes and Snowking did some smashing write-ups below regarding the factors needed for snowfall (also go into details of these factors): 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

I think the models have caught the 12Z Syndrome this morning - often less encouraging for cold/wintry outlooks in their 00Z runs and more encouraging for them during their afternoon updates. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Though likely to be expected, you could use even the strongest magnifying glass in the universe, but I wish anyone luck to be able to spot the Vortex on the Western side of the Northern Hemisphere on the GFS 18Z.

[Winter 2022- 2023 overview, opinions, observations]

I would also rate Winter in a similar way. An alright Winter overall. Pretty lousy for the white stuff, although had a dusting in December which lasted roughly a week in patches (bigger dumpings further South), and then another little dusting around mid-January. So a little better than the worst of the Winters for snow. Could have been better, though the cold spell in December was decent for the thick frost and strength of cold it brought. 

I did like also how mid January onwards generally brought a lot of bright, sunny and, at times, frosty weather - the dry and bright theme continuing on and off throughout February. But the grey blanket in the sky tending to become a more invasive feature the later into this month we have got. On the brighter days of this month, particularly when it was accompanied by milder days, it did feel like Spring made an early appearance - some daffodils having burst into flower in the last week or so. Some buds on some bushes and trees opening out a bit.

The wet period during later December running up into mid-January was my least favourite part. Making me feel rather SAD at times (but I appreciate the rain was probably needed). I think I would remember this Winter for both the December cold spell and for, aside from a fairly brief period, how calm and settled the weather has been. Just needed a good blanket or two of the snow and just the odd one or two wild windstorms. But, for me, am pleased it wasn’t a washout here, as prefer Winter’s to be quite dry. 

December 2022: 7/10

January 2023: 5/10 (mostly saved by 2nd half)

February 2023: 4.5/10

Overall rating: 5.5/10

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

26 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Fingers at the ready for the UKMO 168

First poster wins the Golden Finger 

Looks like the award goes to :

23 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

UKMO 168hrs, messier than some would like:

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Is one of those continued situations from the models where it’s worth giving them more time as to how they develop the blocking patterns. The MJO, SSW, migration East of the Vortex and such. All having an impact on the sorting out of the pattern. Because…

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

The fork in the road is reasonably close.

…is really the case, currently. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

The erratic nature of the models is perhaps foreseeable at the moment due to various stuff they gotta straighten out. Sometimes throwing the chilly weather enthusiasts into the dreams of cold and snowy heaven. And sometimes into the horror of the snowless abyss.

Former, though, appears true from both GFS and ICON this afternoon as they bring the Beast back… from the North! (Something that did seem a real possibility and something that could still happen). With the case of Northern blocking, as longs as it fends away all the wicked forces that could knock it out, or scare the block away into Europe or too far North and West, Beasts from the East could come to the cold fans’ parties as well. 

While some will be longing for warmth, and others longing for a bite in the tail of Winter, any shipshape Northerlies/Easterlies better not take an old faulty slow boat towards the UK, otherwise it might sink before it gets here. An easy thing to happen with cold and snowy spells sometimes. ️

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Because of how the Vortex in the Stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere will continue to be affected from the warmings, I wouldn’t surprised about a second try of High Latitude Blocking setup.

It was an engrossing trip through the thread this morning collecting all these discarded things,

 

So I have now ironed out all of them and folded them neatly for you all to collect,

 

I mean, I admit it is looking quite iffy as to whether the UK High can migrate far enough into the Iceland/Greenland area with the Scandinavian trough losing the fight to back far enough West and South towards the UK to deliver cyclonic cold snowy conditions. In that sense, it’s nice to see objectivity surrounding this.

But I would, for now, perhaps hold onto the towels to see whether there’s still a chance that the pattern for early March can shift back West (assuming it doesn’t collapse too quickly) - even if previous experiences tends to demonstrate that these things often go further East. Reason I also say this as, not only could there be other possible chances for cold and/or wintry weather throughout March, but I can imagine the SSW is going to provide some on-going challenges as to how the models handle the weather patterns in the next few weeks. 

[March 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

CET guess of 5.5*C please and 60mm of rainfall (10% of that from snow). 

Chilly start and mostly dry. But then they’ll be a battle between the UK High and the Scandinavian trough which, if the latter wins, sleet and snow will swoop in on the UK blasting wintry forcefields apart. Despite how the SSW could continue to affect the Northern Hemisphere pattern, I have a feeling any snow will retreat past mid-month allowing warmer Spring weather to envelop the UK. Nevertheless, the snow will get its revenge on the warmer weather into late March. But the warm weather not going down without a fight. What a brawl it will be. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

36 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think next year it would be good to resurrect the "hunt for cold thread"

The same suspects (probably under different user names) deliberately troll / try to get a reaction out of people as soon as milder runs pop up or a cold spell ends, but subtlety do it in a way that their posts don't get moderated, which then creates  10 replies to the original post and good analysis/ insightful posts get missed

 

Although some of us were considering bringing a Hunt For Cold Thread back to life both this and last Winter, I think we will have to seriously consider giving it a whirl next Winter. Just see how it goes again. Have it run alongside a more chilled out/generally slower paced general model chat thread.

If it doesn’t work out, then can always transform the Hunt For Cold Model thread back into a general Model Output Discussion thread. And then maybe have the relaxed/slower paced general Model thread become an in-depth Technical Model thread for those wanting to discuss the more detailed and/or scientific aspects of the charts and models. (Though I suppose the relaxed/slower paced general model thread could double as a technical thread anyway. And it would be easy to have too many model threads running at once).

We’ll probably put up a poll during Autumn asking people how they would like the Model thread(s) to run during Winter. We’ll try to follow through with what ever gets the majority of votes. Can again alter things should we find the option with most votes doesn’t end up cutting the mustard. 

[The changing daylight hours thread]

Some light definitely trying to cling on around 6pm now. A pretty decent amount of progress compared to where things were a couple months ago.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

3 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

That's why I agree with @mushymanrob, in that realignment is a far more useful term than either 'upgrade' or 'downgrade'... Each time new data is fed into the models (all of the models) realignment occurs, all the way until T+386 becomes T+0... 

Would also say that what could be considered an upgrade on the models, might be a downgrade for someone else. All subjective, really

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Hi
Ive found that so far, in this case, the EPS that go out further than the NOAA have lead the way.  Of course the NOAA anomaly charts are the mean for the period so centred on day 11 whilst the EPS goes out to day 15.

The NOAA have confirmed what the EPS has predicted, and IF that continues then by the weekend the NOAA should be supporting a Northerly/Northeasterly ..

Below are the current NOAA centred on the 3rd, the EPS for the 3rd agrees... the EPS for the 7th suggests lowering pressure to our East and a strong Greenland high. Im aware that the 00z EPS is rolling out now, so may be different to this - the 12z.. but i doubt it.

 

Hi Mushy, thanks for providing the comparison.:)

 Really interesting to see and I think for anyone wanting to see something colder still, they do look nice with that possibility of something cold from the North and North-East.

[Model discussion highlights]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

Any thoughts on these bad boys?

Hi Rain,

While I admit that John, Mushy, Bluearmy etc tend to have more insight on these anomaly charts compared to my experience of them, it looks to me like they want to establish a High/Block over Iceland with a slack upper flow over the UK. Interesting to see as it would look like leading to colder conditions for the UK. A fairly nice surprise to see despite a few days break from surveying the models (but then I guess the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event signposted this as a possibility). 

While some will be looking forward to some warmer weather of Spring, this does provide a chance to try squeeze out a cold and, perhaps snowy outcome. (The latter being as longs as High Pressure migrates far enough to the North and North-West of the UK to prevent the weather from being too dry/settled and allow Atlantic Lows to slide under).  The snow train can then pull into the platform of the UK from the North and East.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4808721

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

3 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I'm a lot further south and east than a lot of people on this thread (as I will be as I'm on the southeasternmost peninsula in the British archipelago), so my weather events are normally the most severe and extreme in the country. Here, it's been spring since the start of February, and even earlier in January before the average spell (I refuse to call that disappointment a cold spell) things were trying to bloom. The daffodils are coming out and the trees are starting to flower and green. Nature from my estimations is about a month ahead of where it should be. This will vary by location, as Kent does tend to have an earlier spring than many other places in the archipelago, but don't get it twisted, this heat wave we've had is unusually severe and spring starting this early isn't normal at all.

As I mentioned earlier, the precipitation in this month in the southeast has been a disaster; it has probably rained about twice or three times in the whole month, and it was very light and short-lived. Things that don't normally dry up until March and April are already drying up. If this pattern were happening in summer, it would be a severe heat wave. Hopefully the long term forecast is correct and spring trends wetter than average, otherwise this summer is going to be a tragedy even if the temperature extremes are not incredibly severe.

Yep, despite being somewhat further North and West, I can’t help but feel things feel further ahead that what would normally be the case at this time of year. Aside from first part of January being wet here, it’s been dry a lot of the time and I remember one or two others saying this month, especially, being one of the quietest Februaries they have ever experienced. So definitely quite unusual. The early start to Spring/Spring-like weather has been (for me) welcoming. I would have to agree there is going to be a lot of problems should the next few months or so be absent of much precipitation. I mean, I would love a dry(ish) Summer - the rain coming in the form of heavy thunderstorms to try making up for any drought conditions that occur. From a personal view, as interesting as it was, wouldn’t want a repeat of last Summer where it became a touch too hot and dry at times. 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Even though it was fairly brief, I remember the first part of February 2012 delivering a pretty good dumping of snow here as a front from the West ran into some colder air further East. I think the further West you were, the more that the front was of rain (though there was a bit of back-edge light rain/drizzle from the front here. Mostly got away with it and ended up with around 10cm of wet snow).  

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Probably varying where you are in the UK, but although maybe not a particularly stand out period, February 2010 was quite a cold one overall. There was a possibility of that February being even more memorable with a chance of very bitter Easterly winds, which didn’t quite happen. Still was, however, a chilly and, at times (especially in this part), wintry month. 

Due to this Winter lacking in snow, except for a few odd small dustings (so better than nothing), am kinda hoping for something wintry in March and also some mild, bright, sunny, Spring spells. Which, to be fair, it has felt quite Spring-like on and off throughout this February. A number of dry days with some sunshine at times. Today in particular felt pleasant in the sun. Even some of the daffodils have been recently flowering. Seems a little early this year. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

Any thoughts on these bad boys?

Hi Rain,

While I admit that John, Mushy, Bluearmy etc tend to have more insight on these anomaly charts compared to my experience of them, it looks to me like they want to establish a High/Block over Iceland with a slack upper flow over the UK. Interesting to see as it would look like leading to colder conditions for the UK. A fairly nice surprise to see despite a few days break from surveying the models (but then I guess the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event signposted this as a possibility). 

While some will be looking forward to some warmer weather of Spring, this does provide a chance to try squeeze out a cold and, perhaps snowy outcome. (The latter being as longs as High Pressure migrates far enough to the North and North-West of the UK to prevent the weather from being too dry/settled and allow Atlantic Lows to slide under).  The snow train can then pull into the platform of the UK from the North and East.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Aside from the last few posts, have noticed the moderators have had to use their huge vacuums to hoover up some unsuitable posts in here within the last few hours. Therefore, let’s play a game. To stand a chance of winning, you need to make sure your post…

1. is about the models.

2. is a bit more than just a chart, or an odd word or two. I know a few like to do this for effect (though could be confusing for new members).

3. isn’t rude and insulting, while accepting we all have our own opinions and preferences. Be respectful about it, however.

4. doesn’t harass other members.

Your prizes will be: a post that remains in the thread (is that exciting! ) and… the white stuff! Trust me, this is one game you don’t wanna lose.