[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Greetings all. A new thread for the New Year. A year to hopefully bring a fresh new start with weather to excite us all.  

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For moans, ramps and general chat about the Winter, please feel free to use this thread here: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98050-winter-2022-moans-ramps-chat/
 

Just a quick little summary of the models - it looks like the Atlantic dominated weather will continue. A general flow from the West. High Pressure generally across the South and South-East and Low Pressure dominating to the North-West of the UK.

This bringing further spells of rain and showers to places, particularly across North-Western areas, while Southern areas could see bit more in the way of drier weather at times, especially from little ridges of High Pressure that cross Eastwards through the UK. Maybe a little more in the way of wider-spread settled weather into Friday next week with a little Atlantic ridge shifting East over large portion of the UK. Though Monday this week could be pretty dry as well:

 

Mixture of cooler and milder periods with the alternating South-West to North-West flows. Northern areas seeing the best of the chilliest conditions were some of the rain and showers likely to be wintry over higher ground at times. 

The models, especially the 06Z GFS, do tease with more pronounced chillier weather from the North-West, and even North, later into the period which may heighten the risk of more widespread wintry weather. And maybe not even just for the Northern hills and high ground either!

But… can it happen?

Or are models such as the GFS over doing the amplification and eagerness to drop Low Pressure into Europe? Something for the cold weather enthusiasts to have excitement about. 

Thanks guys and please continue your discussions  

I would also like to wish you a great New Year - I hope it’s a blessed and joyful one for you all.

 

Previous thread: 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Sorry it’s a bit short notice, but with New Year on the way, there’ll be a new Model thread coming. Soon.

(Thought would just mention. If unable to finish your post in time, you can copy it and then paste it into the posting form onto the new thread when it is released. Or copy it into Word/Notepad/Notes etc and then copy back onto the new thread). 
 
Edit: putting the padlock on this now. New thread up very shortly  

New thread: 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Despite the pretty nice 00Z ECMWF mean towards the end of it’s run, in terms of 850 hPa temperatures, the ECMWF operational run was on the cold side of things for a time towards the end of the graph. Shown on the example below for Birmingham:

For Aberdeen, the operational was also on the colder side of things from January 5th (not hugely so), then becoming close to the mean at the end of the graph:

 

Bit of a surprise, but might mean models may be partly overdoing how chilly some of the West to North-Westerly flows might be (not to say though that the operational isn’t right).

The 00Z Mogreps ensembles does offer some colder options after a peak in milder 850 hPa temperatures from 5th January onwards, though most struggle to go below -5*C 850 hPa temperatures. Despite that, with it being further North, the Aberdeen ensembles (2nd chart below/across) has quite a few of the ensembles members clustering fairly tightly around the -5*C mark:

 

I do agree nothing particularly remarkable, but some kind of cool down for a time from 5th January onwards, seems possible. 

Mind, there’s always this should not much in the way of white stuff occur in the next 2 or so weeks… ️

 

(Edit: noticed poster above beat me to some of it) 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

A nice area that is, Arnside (the fact that it’s near the Lake District feels like a plus). Great walks along the bay and along some of the hills. And you have Grange-over-Sands nearby with that very very cool promenade.

Fair to say, though, I’ve never been to Arnside and Grange-over-Sands during the Winter, but I imagine it’s still nice during that time of year and probably quite peaceful. 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Looking at the progression between the 6 to 10 day, and the 8 to 14 day, 500mb anomaly charts from the CPC/NOAA, there could be a chance for the Atlantic, Westerly, dominated pattern to allow more in the way of cooler shots from the West/North-West sector going into the 8 to 14 day period. So maybe at least more of a Polar Maritime influence at times:

6 to 10 day:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

8 to 14 day:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Upper flow (green line) over the UK is more from a direct Westerly direction on the 8 to 14 day chart compared to the more West-South-Westerly flow from the 6 to 10 day chart.

While no signs yet of a proper Scandinavian block (no guarantee one will rock about), heights are a fair bit above average over the Eastern and Central Canada area, and also over the Arctic. Not high enough for a true Arctic High or anything, but a chance for some weak(ish) Arctic heights, so no strong Polar Vortex sitting on a chair over the Arctic. 

Not a very cold or snowy paradise, (though I imagine rather cold and wintry for the Scottish hills and mountains), but a chance for chillier conditions at times again later into the period. Even the South could experience less milder or chillier conditions at times. With the 6 to 10 day anomaly chart showing some of the above average heights across Southern/South-Eastern UK lowering on the 8 to 14 day chart along with some of those above average Arctic and Eastern/Central Canadian heights, this could assist Low Pressure areas in the Atlantic to go further East. Thus letting chillier air from the West/North-West to become more of an influential player for the UK. Nothing much out of the ordinary but would somewhat increase chances of wintry weather, albeit probably mostly for high ground Northern and Western areas

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

While likely mostly being a high ground affair, maybe a chance for some sleet and snow over parts of Northern England, and especially Scotland, during Sunday/New Year’s Day, as a small(ish) Low Pressure system on the Southern flank of the very low heights to the North zips North-East through Scotland. 

Some cold air the Low will be running into through Scotland (more especially Central and Northern parts), so those parts could see the best of any lower level falling sleet and snow, particularly under heavier bursts of precipitation that could help drag the snow line down to lower levels. It may not amount to much (plus parts of Western Scotland may miss out - depends exactly how the Low tracks on the day itself). Some of the hills at least could see a few centimetres possibly, and is something for some of the Northern cold weather fans, particularly those on high ground, to provide some excitement for New Year’s.

[January 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

Feeling unconfident about it being a cold one, although I feel some high quality Polar Maritime flows will conquer the UK further into January we go, perhaps with early to mid December 2022-esque Northern blocking trying to re-establish right at the end of the month.

CET of 5.8*C and 100mm of rain/snow, please. Tar!

[Model discussion highlights]

It looks like tomorrow, a spell of rain will spill up North through the UK from the South-West as the models (GFS 06Z as an example), shows Low Pressure directly to the West of the UK flinging a disturbance North-East:

This could be wintry over some Northern peaks and over the high ground of Scotland, as the Atlantic Low runs into colder air further North. Flow will increasingly back from the South-West tomorrow as the rain and hill snow clears North-Eastwards with brighter weather moving into Southern areas, probably with a few showers into Western and South-Western areas. Cold over Scotland, especially over Northern parts and rather mild towards the South (albeit Central areas of the UK may stay just below double figure temperatures). 
 

 

On Christmas Eve, the Atlantic Low will arrange itself in a South-West to North-East position and gradually start shifting North-East to the West of the UK. Centre of the Low moving closer towards the West coast of Ireland. It will be bringing a South-Westerly flow through the UK. Some showers at times over Western and North-Western areas of the UK, with a few towards the South-West. Generally brighter and drier towards Eastern areas of the UK:

Rather mild again in the South, particularly far South with double digit temperatures. Cooler further North, and cold over Northern Scotland, where some showers towards Western parts of Scotland could be wintry over the hills. 

 

Christmas Day has the Atlantic Low making further trips North-East with the Centre of the Low hovering close by to the North of Scotland. Compared to what it would have been like tomorrow, the Low has shrunk a little bit in size, but… it has become moodier as it deepens to the North and becomes tightly wind up! A fairly complex disturbance lining up to the West of the UK tracking East through the day bringing some bursts of rain across some Western and Northern areas, probably falling as sleet or snow over Northern hills and the Scottish Mountains and the possibility of a more organised area of heavy rain heading North-East through South-Eastern UK. (Have to call in the snow witch and cast a wintry spell on the precipitation ). 

 

You’ll see, however, that colder North-Westerly winds will tuck in behind the spells of wet weather to the West of the pointy disturbance - possibly a chance of wintry showers across the far North-West. 

Fairly mild again across the South, and cold again over Northern Scotland. Cool(ish) over Ireland but becoming chillier over that part later on into the day:

Boxing Day could then see a chilly Polar Maritime flow invading all (or a large chunk) of the UK as the Atlantic Low continues to go on a voyage further East and North-East. The Centre of the Low now just of the North-Eastern Scottish coasts. Chance of it bringing strong winds over Northern Scotland (although it’s possible the moody Low could be more relaxed on the day itself, plus a few adjustments are possible at that range).

A chilly day for many, though, in the nippy North-Westerly flow. Some showers, wintry at times, especially over high ground, for North-Western areas of the UK. 

It’s at this point you will have noticed that the Greenland, plus the Northern West to Mid-Atlantic, ridging gets knocked down South to the West of the UK thanks to Low Pressure to the West of the Northern Atlantic ridging (around the Eastern Canada area) flattening the ridging. 

 

We then get this (examples from the GFS, ECMWF and UKMO - around the 138 to 144 hour mark), for early Wednesday next week:

GFS

ECMWF

UKMO

Band of High Pressure and high heights across the South of the UK and low heights across the North of the UK. A flow dominated from the West towards the UK. There is a bit of a shallow surface ridge just to the North-East of the UK on the GFS trying to interrupt the Westerly flow over the UK on that run for that time. Also, as some did note earlier, however, the Vortex isn’t having a party over North Eastern Canada. Mostly rather compacted over the Arctic and Pole area (the purples). Maybe over time, things might become more amplified upstream. At the same time, some of the troughing over North-Eastern Canada may keep the pattern downstream towards the UK, flat (at least until the troughing shifts East out of that area). 

The ECMWF did attempt a Northerly/North-Easterly outbreak out West of the UK later into next week as heights rose in the Western Northern Atlantic. But some of the high heights fairly nearby to the East over South-Eastern Europe made it a bit of an obstacle for the strong Northerly to reach the UK (more of a slack North-Westerly for a time over the island). Developments upstream with the shallow filling Low over the UK linking with Low Pressure over Iceland got in the way of the mid-Atlantic ridge getting further North. There was also the fact that a developing Low over the Western Atlantic to the West of that ridge just piled everything further East and the UK ended up in a mild South-Westerly flow, along with more sturdier ridging directly to the East of the UK. 

 

I could probably see how something like this might lead to Scandinavian High developments. Low Pressure out West being more vertically aligned to toss up a lot of Warm Air Advection (WAA) Northwards through the UK area could assist in pumping a block to the North-East of the UK giving the Vortex further North/North-West big slap. 

Quite far out to put much trust in something like that yet. It might be a possibility at some point. 

Both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble 500mb and Sea Level Pressure means for early Wednesday next week (in that order below) does show the UK under a broad West to South-Westerly flow, so fairly mild, more especially across Southern UK areas:

 

Main area of the Vortex across the Pole. Worth pointing out again, no strong Vortex to our North-West around the Northern/Eastern Canada area - surface ridging over Eastern parts of Northern America and Canada, plus a surface Low dropping quite far South to the West of that ridge over Western parts of Northern America and Canada.

It may look as though there wouldn’t be much to fuel the Jetstream upstream to the West of the UK - the lack of a strong Polar Vortex to our North West towards North Eastern America/Canada. Saying that though, there is a fair amount of cold upper (850 hPa) air still spilling South out of North-Eastern Canada (via lingering Low Pressure along the North-Eastern Canadian coast). That colder air meeting the warmer air further South in the Western, mid and Eastern Atlantic pushing a robust arm of the Jet towards the UK. Making ridging of High Pressure in the mid Atlantic a challenge to pop about keeping things flat in that area:

In fact, just pushing the toppling Western and mid Atlantic ridging we will be having the next few days further East.

Not to say it’ll stay like how the chart shows above forever (to be fair, nothing does). The pattern may become more wavy and amplified again at some point. Because although models can be prone to over-amplifying patterns, they can possibly overdo the flatness of the pattern as well. Have to see what happens. 

Nonetheless, the NOAA 6 to 10 day 500mb chart below has the UK under a Westerly to South-Westerly upper flow. A string of lower than average heights extending from North-Western UK Northwards through to the Pole and towards the North-Western parts of Northern America and Canada. Higher than average heights over South-Eastern UK and South-East into mainland Europe, reflective of the high heights models show in that area. Plus, some higher than average heights over Eastern Canada:

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

So an Atlantic Westerly spell does look likely and generally fairly mild I would say, probably with some cooler fleeting bursts from the West, especially for North-Western UK. 

The 8 to 14 day 500mb chart from the NOAA, while still maintaining a South-Westerly upper flow, has higher than average heights becoming somewhat more influential over the UK from the South-East. Therefore could become more milder with any cooler bursts from the West or North-West becoming less likely. In a way, it fits in with what operational models such as the ECMWF and GFS show deep into their runs with the European heights becoming a little more controlling for the UK:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Although none of us can, for certain, know what could happen in a week or 2’s, time (always the way really), at the moment another big cold spell does look very unlikely, bar some chillier interludes from the West or North-West at times. Perhaps as we go towards, or into, the New Year Santa might start delivering some late surprises for the cold weather enthusiasts in here. Just doesn’t seem much appetite at the moment for anything particularly white away perhaps from Northern high ground and hills. 

For those who rather it would stay around average to generally mild, especially those of you in the South, then the outlook should be quite pleasing. Would mean saving some costs on the heating at times. So could argue, a positive on that front as much as most would love to see that sparkly white stuff.

It’s the sort of outlook where North-Western areas see the most unsettled conditions with areas further South and East seeing more in the way of drier periods at times, particularly between the bands of precipitation. 

This will be my last post on here in a while as I admit to wanting a break too (not necessarily due to what the models currently show, but could say part of it could be that) and focus on other things. I appreciate that some of the aspects mentioned above will have very likely been covered earlier in the thread and my post might not be free from bias, particularly compared to those will deeper knowledge. Despite everything I’ve written, still feel I have more to learn.

I like to wish everyone on Netweather a…

 

…hope it’s a fab one and is filled with warmth, comfort and joy. For those where it’s a struggle, I pray you’ll get through it okay (we’re always here for support - never have to feel you’re completely on your own), and that the New Year will bring a more promising start for the weather many desire.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98132-model-output-discussion-the-run-up-to-christmas/?do=findComment&comment=4776273

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

It looks like tomorrow, a spell of rain will spill up North through the UK from the South-West as the models (GFS 06Z as an example), shows Low Pressure directly to the West of the UK flinging a disturbance North-East:

This could be wintry over some Northern peaks and over the high ground of Scotland, as the Atlantic Low runs into colder air further North. Flow will increasingly back from the South-West tomorrow as the rain and hill snow clears North-Eastwards with brighter weather moving into Southern areas, probably with a few showers into Western and South-Western areas. Cold over Scotland, especially over Northern parts and rather mild towards the South (albeit Central areas of the UK may stay just below double figure temperatures). 
 

 

On Christmas Eve, the Atlantic Low will arrange itself in a South-West to North-East position and gradually start shifting North-East to the West of the UK. Centre of the Low moving closer towards the West coast of Ireland. It will be bringing a South-Westerly flow through the UK. Some showers at times over Western and North-Western areas of the UK, with a few towards the South-West. Generally brighter and drier towards Eastern areas of the UK:

Rather mild again in the South, particularly far South with double digit temperatures. Cooler further North, and cold over Northern Scotland, where some showers towards Western parts of Scotland could be wintry over the hills. 

 

Christmas Day has the Atlantic Low making further trips North-East with the Centre of the Low hovering close by to the North of Scotland. Compared to what it would have been like tomorrow, the Low has shrunk a little bit in size, but… it has become moodier as it deepens to the North and becomes tightly wind up! A fairly complex disturbance lining up to the West of the UK tracking East through the day bringing some bursts of rain across some Western and Northern areas, probably falling as sleet or snow over Northern hills and the Scottish Mountains and the possibility of a more organised area of heavy rain heading North-East through South-Eastern UK. (Have to call in the snow witch and cast a wintry spell on the precipitation ). 

 

You’ll see, however, that colder North-Westerly winds will tuck in behind the spells of wet weather to the West of the pointy disturbance - possibly a chance of wintry showers across the far North-West. 

Fairly mild again across the South, and cold again over Northern Scotland. Cool(ish) over Ireland but becoming chillier over that part later on into the day:

Boxing Day could then see a chilly Polar Maritime flow invading all (or a large chunk) of the UK as the Atlantic Low continues to go on a voyage further East and North-East. The Centre of the Low now just of the North-Eastern Scottish coasts. Chance of it bringing strong winds over Northern Scotland (although it’s possible the moody Low could be more relaxed on the day itself, plus a few adjustments are possible at that range).

A chilly day for many, though, in the nippy North-Westerly flow. Some showers, wintry at times, especially over high ground, for North-Western areas of the UK. 

It’s at this point you will have noticed that the Greenland, plus the Northern West to Mid-Atlantic, ridging gets knocked down South to the West of the UK thanks to Low Pressure to the West of the Northern Atlantic ridging (around the Eastern Canada area) flattening the ridging. 

 

We then get this (examples from the GFS, ECMWF and UKMO - around the 138 to 144 hour mark), for early Wednesday next week:

GFS

ECMWF

UKMO

Band of High Pressure and high heights across the South of the UK and low heights across the North of the UK. A flow dominated from the West towards the UK. There is a bit of a shallow surface ridge just to the North-East of the UK on the GFS trying to interrupt the Westerly flow over the UK on that run for that time. Also, as some did note earlier, however, the Vortex isn’t having a party over North Eastern Canada. Mostly rather compacted over the Arctic and Pole area (the purples). Maybe over time, things might become more amplified upstream. At the same time, some of the troughing over North-Eastern Canada may keep the pattern downstream towards the UK, flat (at least until the troughing shifts East out of that area). 

The ECMWF did attempt a Northerly/North-Easterly outbreak out West of the UK later into next week as heights rose in the Western Northern Atlantic. But some of the high heights fairly nearby to the East over South-Eastern Europe made it a bit of an obstacle for the strong Northerly to reach the UK (more of a slack North-Westerly for a time over the island). Developments upstream with the shallow filling Low over the UK linking with Low Pressure over Iceland got in the way of the mid-Atlantic ridge getting further North. There was also the fact that a developing Low over the Western Atlantic to the West of that ridge just piled everything further East and the UK ended up in a mild South-Westerly flow, along with more sturdier ridging directly to the East of the UK. 

 

I could probably see how something like this might lead to Scandinavian High developments. Low Pressure out West being more vertically aligned to toss up a lot of Warm Air Advection (WAA) Northwards through the UK area could assist in pumping a block to the North-East of the UK giving the Vortex further North/North-West big slap. 

Quite far out to put much trust in something like that yet. It might be a possibility at some point. 

Both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble 500mb and Sea Level Pressure means for early Wednesday next week (in that order below) does show the UK under a broad West to South-Westerly flow, so fairly mild, more especially across Southern UK areas:

 

Main area of the Vortex across the Pole. Worth pointing out again, no strong Vortex to our North-West around the Northern/Eastern Canada area - surface ridging over Eastern parts of Northern America and Canada, plus a surface Low dropping quite far South to the West of that ridge over Western parts of Northern America and Canada.

It may look as though there wouldn’t be much to fuel the Jetstream upstream to the West of the UK - the lack of a strong Polar Vortex to our North West towards North Eastern America/Canada. Saying that though, there is a fair amount of cold upper (850 hPa) air still spilling South out of North-Eastern Canada (via lingering Low Pressure along the North-Eastern Canadian coast). That colder air meeting the warmer air further South in the Western, mid and Eastern Atlantic pushing a robust arm of the Jet towards the UK. Making ridging of High Pressure in the mid Atlantic a challenge to pop about keeping things flat in that area:

In fact, just pushing the toppling Western and mid Atlantic ridging we will be having the next few days further East.

Not to say it’ll stay like how the chart shows above forever (to be fair, nothing does). The pattern may become more wavy and amplified again at some point. Because although models can be prone to over-amplifying patterns, they can possibly overdo the flatness of the pattern as well. Have to see what happens. 

Nonetheless, the NOAA 6 to 10 day 500mb chart below has the UK under a Westerly to South-Westerly upper flow. A string of lower than average heights extending from North-Western UK Northwards through to the Pole and towards the North-Western parts of Northern America and Canada. Higher than average heights over South-Eastern UK and South-East into mainland Europe, reflective of the high heights models show in that area. Plus, some higher than average heights over Eastern Canada:

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

So an Atlantic Westerly spell does look likely and generally fairly mild I would say, probably with some cooler fleeting bursts from the West, especially for North-Western UK. 

The 8 to 14 day 500mb chart from the NOAA, while still maintaining a South-Westerly upper flow, has higher than average heights becoming somewhat more influential over the UK from the South-East. Therefore could become more milder with any cooler bursts from the West or North-West becoming less likely. In a way, it fits in with what operational models such as the ECMWF and GFS show deep into their runs with the European heights becoming a little more controlling for the UK:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Although none of us can, for certain, know what could happen in a week or 2’s, time (always the way really), at the moment another big cold spell does look very unlikely, bar some chillier interludes from the West or North-West at times. Perhaps as we go towards, or into, the New Year Santa might start delivering some late surprises for the cold weather enthusiasts in here. Just doesn’t seem much appetite at the moment for anything particularly white away perhaps from Northern high ground and hills. 

For those who rather it would stay around average to generally mild, especially those of you in the South, then the outlook should be quite pleasing. Would mean saving some costs on the heating at times. So could argue, a positive on that front as much as most would love to see that sparkly white stuff.

It’s the sort of outlook where North-Western areas see the most unsettled conditions with areas further South and East seeing more in the way of drier periods at times, particularly between the bands of precipitation. 

This will be my last post on here in a while as I admit to wanting a break too (not necessarily due to what the models currently show, but could say part of it could be that) and focus on other things. I appreciate that some of the aspects mentioned above will have very likely been covered earlier in the thread and my post might not be free from bias, particularly compared to those will deeper knowledge. Despite everything I’ve written, still feel I have more to learn.

I like to wish everyone on Netweather a…

 

…hope it’s a fab one and is filled with warmth, comfort and joy. For those where it’s a struggle, I pray you’ll get through it okay (we’re always here for support - never have to feel you’re completely on your own), and that the New Year will bring a more promising start for the weather many desire.

[The changing daylight hours thread]

Appreciating the little extra light being gained in the afternoons. Some light left at half 4 in the afternoon recently, whereas last week or so it would be almost fully dark by that time. 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Since it’s nearly the festive time, a look at what various operational models are showing for Christmas Day:

GFS 06Z

 

A fairly deep intense Low Pressure system close by to the North-West of Scotland feeding a chilly windy flow from the West. Has -5* 850 hPa temperatures tucking in from the West/North-West over North-Western Ireland and heading into far Western Scotland, which could turn blustery showers over North-Western parts, wintry. 

ECMWF 00Z

Has a shallower Low more directly to the North of Scotland. It is less round than on the GFS above with the European heights to the South-East of the UK a little bit closer. Away from perhaps the far North-West of the UK, the island is under a mild(ish) flow from the South-West. There is colder air trying to flood down from the North on the Western side of the Low from the clearance of a spell of rain, perhaps sleet/snow over the hills, heading South-East through the UK (the big kink in the flow dividing the milder and cooler airmasses). This colder air heads through into the North-West of Scotland later on in the day. May introduce some wintry showers to lower levels into the far North-West:

UKMO 00Z

 

Looks closer to the GFS in terms of the depth of Low (albeit a bit less intense and deeper) close by to the North of Scotland. It has more of the roundness that the GFS has with the Low too. UK under a keen West to North-Westerly flow - milder 850 hPa air clearing South-East with chillier Polar Maritime air pouring in from the North-West. Showers towards the North-West have a chance becoming wintry to some lower levels later on into the day as the air becomes colder from the North-West. Also thanks to ridging in the Northern mid-Atlantic steering chillier air South-East from the North-West.

GEM 00Z

Quite a shallow and flat Low directly over Northern Scotland on the GEM for Christmas Day. Whole UK under influence of Polar Maritime air with a straight West-North-Westerly flow. A sunshine and shower day by the looks of it with the most frequent and heaviest of the showers over Western and North-Western areas. Wintry over high ground and perhaps to some modest levels to the North-West later on in the day as the -5*C and colder 850 hPa temperatures try to flood in from the West:

ICON 06Z

Out of the rest of the operational models above, it has the deepest and stormiest Low fairly close by to the North-West of Scotland. Despite the intensity, it’s fairly flat/squashed like the GEM above it. Likely be very windy for North-Western/North Scotland with some blustery wintry showers for that part. All UK again under influence of a Polar Maritime flow from the West and North-West. The best of the sunniest and driest conditions towards the South where any showers are likely to be isolated. Not as windy too with the isobars away from Scotland rather spaced out. 

All variations of a similar theme. I would say the ECMWF is probably the odd one out with how it handles that Low Pressure to the North of Scotland. More do to with the shape of the Low and the stubbornness of the European ridging to the East of the UK. Seems to be a little too amplified over the UK at that time frame compared to the other models. 

Christmas Day clearly being a few days away at the moment, so things could change. But it looks like a possibility of Low Pressure close by to the North/North-West of the UK and an amplified upstream pattern of ridging around the mid to West Northern Atlantic which, along with Low Pressure to the North-West of the UK attempting to shift further East, providing a chance for chillier conditions to spill in from the West or North-West through the day itself. Timing of this also depending on the speed as to which the Low Pressure clears East and not having the high heights and ridging nearby to the South-East of the UK holding up the Low Pressure’s Eastwards/North-Eastwards progression. 

(Meant to have posted this earlier - understandably some of the runs will be going out of date soon. Gives a good idea anyway as to what could happen on the 25th).

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

I do believe I have stumbled across the Zonal Chat thread. Great to have a bit of fun, plus some of the information about it is zone-sational, but I wonder if we can zone back to chat about the models again

Zone-ry to spoil the party and also for the bad puns.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

Just to add to this new thread to try to keep things friendly in here please. (quite the rollercoaster we had yesterday morning, although I’ve felt things usually run quite well on here). Any rude or insulting behaviour won’t be put up with - any harassing or off-topic posts (unless their’s a good amount of model discussion in it) will either be moved to a more suitable thread, or be put through our shiny shredder. 

You can also Private Message one of the moderators/admins if you find unsuitable posts that we’ve either missed (or just weren’t available at the time) to deal with. 

For general Winter chat, please feel free to use this thread: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98050-winter-2022-moans-ramps-chat/

If you also be naughty, don’t be surprised if we sneak to Santa’s headquarters and tell Father Christmas to give you a lovely Christmas present this year - a lump of coal.

Thanks guys and do continue  

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

In the case of the cold weather enthusiasts in here, it would be swell to be in a situation where many of us get something white for Christmas. 

Due to being in the South, a little Southerly adjustment of that shallow sliding Low from the West over the UK for Christmas Eve on the UKMO would be welcome At least to bring more Southern areas into play for some sleet and snow (though will likely to change again at that timeframe).

It would be fair to say that because of travelling, some people understandably may just want it to be dry for Christmas (at least during the travel part) to be able to see family members, loved ones etc. 

Will nevertheless be interesting how the models continue to handle the behaviour of the Lows next week as that could affect where, and how cold, the weather could become later into next week. Does certainly feel like the further North you are the more chance of seeing more in the way of colder conditions at times. That’s not to rule out areas further South seeing chillier conditions at times too.

[The Cold Haters Club 22/23]

For days like today where there’s wall to wall sunshine accompanying the cold, then the lack of snow doesn’t feel too bothersome. Could almost feel like a Spring’s day, minus the warmth. However, one aspect about the cold I really hate is when it’s chilly and raining, but just not quite cold enough for snow (personally the baddie of the UK Winters).

Been finding in the last few years, in particular, longing to jump straight into Spring once Christmas is through with us. Winter feels like it really drags after Christmas. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

On a lighter note my Mother's thinks I'm crazy hoping and searching for all this cold! I just showed her a few pages of this thread and she said...blimey they're all as mad as you,some of em even worse...

Hey mom,the yanks chase twisters and tornadoes in the USA...we chase snow and ice days....parents of today just don't get it do they folks

Ar tell me about it All this time chasing of particular weather conditions in the models… and then you wonder where the time has got to. Before you know it, it’s suddenly bed time. The distractions looking at models (including reading the mixture of informative and amusing posts in here) means work or hobbies get put aside. Becomes so engrossing lol.

After a while, model fatigue can kick in - usually after several days. And yet, still come back for more, and more. And more model viewing. Feels never ending. It’s like trying to run away from a lion. Always gets you in the end.

Also just coming across that recent post from sheikhly reminded me that, for quite a number of us, there is something to get some exited about in the closer time period of the models with the chance of something white on Sunday. Albeit likely being a temporary affair here before milder air tries to come in. Though, to be honest, I would take even a snow to rain event over just a pure all-rain event if that’s exactly what occurs this Sunday. Nice just having snow falling. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

14 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

I am a little concerned that despite the apparently encouraging looking model runs (if you're a coldie) they do not seem to be backed up by the charts that John and Mushy use which I understand are generally more accurate.

Does this mean there is still time for corrections for the worse given the general Westerly theme of such upper air charts?

I want to believe we will have a cold run into Christmas but I am not getting carried away just yet!

The caution is understandable as there’s no guarantee whether chillier weather will push back through next week (perhaps a reasonable chance, currently). Southern areas could just miss out, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up returning to something more standard/average probably with variable chillier and milder periods. Something that a Westerly type of pattern could achieve with alternating tropical and Polar and/or Arctic Maritime flows. Hopefully, for those wanting it, with any chillier periods providing enough bite to bring something wintry. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Have always felt that sometimes, the models can either be a little swift introduced a Polar/Arctic Maritime airmass from the North-West and North, and sometimes take a bit too long with it.

As to the speed which the possible colder air spills in from the West/North-West/North during next week does seem to rely on pushing the high heights to the South-East of the UK further East, or at least these getting suppressed further South along with the High Pressure over Greenland assisting in pushing Low Pressure to the East of the ridge/wedge further Eastwards. To then drag down colder air from the North-West through the UK (providing the pattern does remain amplified upstream. Plus no other Lows shifting underneath the Greenland High merge too quickly, or too far North, with any Low Pressure systems trying to go East to the North of the UK. This would risk cutting off the cold air supply from the North-West/North.

I suppose it’s worth continuing to see what the ensembles are doing, particularly the length as to how long that bump up in less cold/milder temperatures lasts from later this weekend onwards. The longer that bump lasts, especially if the lines from each of the ensembles (including the operational and control runs, last), cluster tightly together, then the more likely the milder period could last. Bearing in mind it’s worth checking out the line graph ensembles for somewhere both in the South and North in the UK. Typically, you would expect that the bump up in milder temperatures for Northern UK areas to be shorter since they’ll be the first to see the return to possible colder conditions from the the West and North next week.

I would say overall I concur that there has been some leniency towards something chillier heading further into next week compared to runs from the last day or 2 from a number of operational models this morning. Nothing totally set for certain next week yet. But a little extra step in the right direction for something chillier. Those, especially over Northern UK and on high ground, may become keen to unlock the shed with the sledges in it at some point. 

One other thing to say is that we have now decided to serve Christmas dinners in our No.1 cafe in the pram store. So should a run make you feel grumpy, you just want to go get some prams and toys, yet you fancy a roast, then the pram store cafe is the place for you! Only £200 per roast. And, the potatoes are shaped like prams!  

1 hour ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Can we have Scandinavia high please wide spread snow .

Just make sure you work even harder in FI on the next run

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

And I have to walk in it tomorrow with a cough, cough/cold should clear much quicker after Saturday, frost makes coughs/colds much worse with me

That’s unfortunate Is one problem with this time of year really 

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Maybe a chance somewhere in the region could reach the -8*C to -10*C mark during the night and morning. The way some of the temperatures are going, it could be attainable. 

Around -4*C here currently.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A pretty middling pair of GEFS 06Z temp. ensembles methinks?

    

Yep, quite standard stuff. Quite a lot of scatter around the 21st December onwards so a lot of possibilities still I feel. Noticed the mean red line averages around 5*C for Bedfordshire beyond the 21st for the surface temperatures, with the 850 hPa temperatures trending closer to 0*C. Has quite an average feel about it. 

NAVGEM being such a tease as usual

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Today's GFS 06Z is (unless one stands on one's head and squints a lot) clearly not want coldies want to see: several days in the teens and most a degree or so either side of average. But no return to any real cold?

    

    

    

That is a fair point Ed, most will be wanting to see some much colder and snowier outcomes. I would however say there is a period from early(ish) to late(ish) next week, where chilly weather could dominate for a time, especially the further North you are on the latest GFS.:)  Will have to see how things continue to go and whether there can be any further improvements for cold weather possibilities next week (clearly things could also go in the opposite direction). Perhaps just end up with alternating milder and colder spells (as addressed by some earlier, so again probably feeling seasonable I would say), maybe with Northern areas seeing the best of the chillier periods. In fact, that might be the safe bet at the moment.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

One thing about the scenario the GFS 06Z shows is that Scotland, especially the Northern part, could see a lot of sleet and snow from this setup from early next week onwards (or maybe at least until the weekend when the GFS 06Z shows a bigger Low approaching from the Atlantic). Generally stays in the cold air throughout next week, especially again Northern Scotland, as they become most influenced by Polar Maritime type of air from the North-West and being on the Northern flank of shallower Lows crossing through the UK during next week.

 

But to be fair, while not always in the cold 850 hPa temperatures, the GFS 06Z does still show bursts of colder 850 hPa air flooding further South at times, as Lows over and to the North of the UK clear into the North Sea. So probably even some bits and pieces of wintry precipitation in the South too, particularly more towards Western spots from showers the Polar Maritime flows would introduce. A seasonal feel with the weather (which to me is still better than nothing).

In terms of cold, I find the GFS next week to be reasonable, particularly if you’re in Scotland. May be the best case scenario for next week. But certainly any further shifts South and East of the pattern isn’t infeasible. Could consider next week, while this sounds a little too optimistic currently, at least mostly cold for the North with cooler/chillier periods for the South too.

It will be interesting to see how the models continues to handle the pattern. Feels like even small tweaks North and West or South and East of the pattern could make a big difference what the UK sees, especially for Southern areas. Something however that seems to be the case for outlooks where there’s small margins of error for the UK.

Just another thing to add as well, with Christmas Day 11 days away, anything could happen. Not impossible a Scandinavian High could just bubble up driving chilly Easterly winds over the UK. Even should a Westerly drivern pattern dominate (although can’t see a raging Westerly with angry Vortex over Greenland/Northern Canada), you could always end up in a situation where a runner Low to the South of a main Low Pressure system around Northern/North-Western UK shoots Eastwards through the channel providing a flakey treat for Southern areas. (And hopefully Northern UK areas could be under a potent Polar Maritime flow at the time with a kink in the flow giving a spell of white stuff for their part too). 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Although I can understand people’s worry and frustration (I mean I suppose you do have to watch out for trends that could appear), maybe give it a little more time. Maybe at least a couple of days or so before getting out the big soft teddies and tossing them about. Could be worth have some time to calm down somewhere if the models are getting to you. Might help. Things have been going pretty smoothly and friendly in here and we don’t want to lose that. 

We have got the ginormous broom out just incase if we need to sweep up the toys in here. As much as it feels tempting to vent and throw stuff around when feeling emotionally distressed or anxious, we’ll hopefully not need a reason to use that thing

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

As a couple mentioned, 18Z GFS Pub run teasing with another rain, sleet and snow event late Tuesday/early Wednesday next week (Wales and Eastwards through Central England) as a small Low to the South-West of the UK shifts North-Eastwards through South-Eastern UK. Some of the precipitation charts already been posted earlier, so just some close up versions of the charts and a few additional details. 

Scoops the colder 850 hPa temperatures towards North-Western UK further South-East as the Low heads further East taking the sleet and snow with it.

 

Would be nice should Sunday’s event not be up to much (except perhaps Scotland and Northern England hills), to have something like this to provide some white goodies. Plus, some fellow lucky South-Easterners who will have ended up with 2 snow events this month if this materialised. ️ (Although it does provide the chance to crumble any snow shields in any Western, Central and South-Eastern areas that didn’t get any snow from the last few days). 

Even though admittedly this is a week away, sometimes it’s easy to look past what there could be in the closer time frames on the models and miss out on any possible surprises like the above.