BlueHedgehog074

February 9, 2023

32 minutes ago, matt111 said:

I think our snow shield has had that done to it. Can't find any way to turn it off

What a shame Who ever has done it shall have no snow (or what ever other type of weather they desire) until they sort it out!

February 9, 2023

3 hours ago, matt111 said:

Shame the days of clear blue skies has ended here with it returning to the dull nothingness we had all of last week.

Can hope it won’t turn out to be as cloudy/grey as it seems, otherwise it’s just the case of unplugging the sunshine shield again. Although I worry that the sunshine shield makers will have probably glued the plug in with extra strong superglue to make it harder to take out.

February 9, 2023

With a good amount of sunny weather here recently, it’s as though March and April have kidnapped February and held it captive somewhere.

Now some very different weather conditions could easily pop up within the next 2 to 3 weeks, but I do wonder wether the models will be able to locate the missing month fairly soon before March and April finish off February for good!

February 1, 2023

Seem to kinda have a love and hate relationship about Winter at the moment but, quite frankly, am secretly glad February has now come and flushed January down the loo. Mind, January here did bring more in the way of drier weather with some sunny days beyond mid-month plus the odd little bit of snow. Some of the sunny days making it feel a little Spring-y at times. At least made the last 2 weeks of the month feel rather bearable.

For those who’ve been having some Winter Blues, or just had enough of the season (even though a proper good fall of snow would still be brill), just knowing it’s one month closer to Spring brings a bit of joy. True it’s a bit of a wait to March still, where some will end up seeing further relief. But the hour increase of longer light in the afternoons, the mornings getting a little lighter earlier and the higher position of the sun allowing stronger light to reach the surface now does make Spring feel like it’s getting within reaching distance.

Nevertheless, some could argue that February, more so across the South/far South of the UK, can partly feel like a Spring month, especially later into the month and with the right weather. Incredible what happened in the last third of February 2019, for instance!

Just nice at the moment to see the snowdrops out also. Not too long when the daffodils unravel their dazzling displays of white, yellow and oranges. A slow process it’s feeling this year (and the following part won’t apply to all, especially those not wanting Winter to let go yet) but are getting there in terms of Spring and warmer weather. Just a few more weeks to get through really. Winter can throw further surprises throughout February and March, although have at least passed the toughest part of the season, particularly in terms of sunlight levels and length of daylight.

January 30, 2023

As we get very close to approaching the following month of February, let’s do, as usual, ensure to keep things friendly in here please and respect other people’s opinions and stuff.

The dungeon is always open ready to throw the mischief-makers into. Don’t be one of them.

Any off topic or rotten posts do feel free to report them to the mods and admins, and we’ll get on the case as soon as we possibly can. Cheers all!

While I haven’t looked at the models in a while, I do hope February will bring us a good variety of weather for various weather fans down to snow, windstorms, calm sunny and/or frosty days and, some, a spot of early(ish) Spring warmth.

January 30, 2023

Not looked at the models or been on here in the last 3 weeks, so have no idea how next month will pan out whatsoever . My guess will be for a cool(ish) start, perhaps some colder weather with snow towards mid-February. And then warming up a lot into last third of the month where it could feel very March or April-esque for a time accompanied by lots of sunshine.

A CET of 6*C and 65mm rain/snow please. Tar!

January 8, 2023

Indeed. Make it happen, 2023!

January 8, 2023

Those naughty storms! They better be on their best behaviour throughout Spring and Summer.

January 8, 2023

4 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Sunglasses at the ready, since things are a bit slow at the moment I thought I'd do another verification collage using the archives on Meteociel. This time including the EPS mean since someone here pointed out that these are available in the archive (up to T+240). It has turned out interesting as it shows some of the less favoured models having had some good runs. Where I have put a model's name in bold, it means I think that model did a particularly good job at the given timeframe.

The solution for today at 00z:

Day 7 (T+168): EPS mean, ECM, UKMO, GFS, GEM, ICON, JMA, NAVGEM

From the way it’s handled today’s Low to North-West of the UK at 7 days out (including position, depth and shape of Low), the NAVGEM amazingly looks to have outclassed the rest. A reasonable job it’s done as well with how it’s handled the surface High over the East and North of Scandinavia. Way to go, NAVGEM. Not a bad model at all.

January 8, 2023

Sounds like a fair well-rounded summary, Phil nw. Possibly could squeeze something a little bit wintry outside of areas (Northern and Western high ground) exposed to the chilly Polar Maritime flows from chances of disturbances or smallish Lows mixing into colder flows from the West and North. Probably though nothing more than that (but a more unexpected widespread snowfall could pop about). It does feel like fairly standard fair.

More amplification of the mid Atlantic/Azores High Pressure along with less in the way of lower heights to the North of the ridging could of course lead to something more notable for our part. But must admit, can’t currently see any cool to colder shots being long lasting. Not yet anyway.

Just have to keep remembering that our Winter’s aren’t full of Northern blocking year after year. Same goes with the deep cold that can accompany the Northern blocking. To further add, also, that some decent snowy spells can occur without the need of deep cold and strong blocking to our North (which am sure has been brought up a few times before in the past).

January 8, 2023

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

DRL you should put yourself in those netweather dungeons for the week for saying you can't wait for Spring.

Let's at least have a decent burst of Winter first...Summers these days tend to drag on for ages.

Now get to the naughty step

Would be nice to have a decent shot of proper Winter weather before the season is through with us, since there is still plenty of time for it. A lot of people on here would love that. Some of the chillier shots the models showing later into there runs that, should they not water-down much, giving a flavour of more wintrier weather. Perhaps with Southern areas in for a surprise also from any runner Lows from the main troughing to our North/East going through the South of the UK. So is a start (without forgetting that the first part of December was pretty amazing for its cold weather, despite some snow shields staying strong for some).

You could argue really that like other seasons Winter is about the variety. Great having a mixture of different weather types. With snow and cold clearly being a favourite for some. And I think the weather that some of us wish was more dominant.

I do totally understand MattWolves, I’ll get in that naughty corner right away and think about what I’ve done.

PS: Still like Winter, just less than I used to (also feeling bit bipolar/rough currently), so hopefully that will reduce my time in the naughty corner for 1 less second.

Without the risk of bringing this thread too off topic, the rest of you could end up in our naughty corner or dungeons like me if your posts are off topic, or just moaning about the Winter .

January 8, 2023

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

It is the case, just follow them on the chart. But they are only the mean, so dont support a lengthy wintry spell but do support shorter lived blasts.

Will have to take more of yours and Bluearmy’s advice on board regarding mean and anomaly charts (still continuing to learn), as I remember last time you mentioned to look out for the DAM line/thicknesses. Wouldn’t be surprised either for any cooler or colder blasts, particularly from the North-West, being quite transient at the moment, as I’m not sure if any of the amplification of High Pressure out West is robust enough to maintain a cold flow for long. I guess, though, any continued pressure put on the Vortex in general, including that from High Pressure over the Arctic or Russia area, could eventually may be lead to something more substantial along the line for cold or very cold weather for the UK.

January 8, 2023

15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

My concerns though are the same as with the EPS.... the 528 DAM is well North of the uk, and the 546 is over Southern areas. That suggests to me that we are more likely to see mild incursions than cold.

Kinda a shame if that’s the case (not that I don’t believe you as, you, John Holmes etc, have some of the best experience with these charts). But I must admit, even though further possibilities of cold and snowy conditions can’t be ruled out on the models, especially with quite a lot of Winter left, I actually can’t wait for Spring now. For some reason, (except for the snow part), just don’t enjoy Winter as much as I used to and I don’t understand why.

January 7, 2023

The NOAA 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly chart supports the idea of chillier blasts of weather from around the North-West sort of sector. A West-North-Westerly upper flow over the UK combined with lower than average heights over the island extending East into mainland Europe and much of Scandinavia. Higher than average heights over both the Arctic and Eastern Canada/Western North Atlantic too. A scenario that allows the Jetstream to dig South towards/near the UK and into the nearby continent to encourage chilly conditions to spill in from between the West and North:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Also watching that The Big Snow of 82’ program on Channel 5 and have to say is very interesting. All the snow that fell, seeing how people coped and the impact on the transport - all very absorbing and informative. Worth checking out if you haven’t yet (going to be going back to watching it ).

Might not be quite at that level regarding what the models show (but with the energy struggles a number been going through, that could be seen as a relief - much as some would to see big falls of snow like that ). Though is still a possibility, for now, of colder conditions that might bring some wintry weather conditions away from Northern high ground. Particularly should some of the possible colder shots from between the West and North improve along with stronger amplification out West.

January 7, 2023

29 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Probably the cold front, or has that been through already?

I think that went through earlier today (lead to some brighter skies for a time once the heavy rain cleared). Must have been from this little squall line from this showery area of precipitation later this afternoon.

January 7, 2023

Was about time, but something more interesting in the last 5 minutes; a squally torrential downpour of rain and hail with very strong winds just blasted through. Went absolutely mental for a few minutes but has calmed down (just fairly heavy rain and less-strong winds now).

January 6, 2023

Even though it got really hot in a couple of instances, for here, Summer was only really one of the things weather-wise I liked about 2022. Mostly dry and bright which is what I liked, even though there could have been a bit more in the way of thunderstorms and overnight rain to make up for the fact some of the plants were suffering from the dry and hot weather. Thunderstorms are additionally just fun to observe.

Rather enjoyed most of Spring, too. Offered a fair amount of sunny and useable days, but I think was quite showery at times too.

Only other exception for this year was the early to mid December cold spell. Despite the snow shield staying mostly at full power (took a little battering on the odd occasion), the frosty conditions combined with the dusting of snow lasted for a number of days, more specifically over shaded areas. Made the landscape seem enchanting.

January 3, 2023

8 hours ago, Don said:

I think we would all take some high pressure now with frosty nights and sunny days, if nothing else!!

Yep, just a break from this pattern. Feels worse when you’re getting up early and it’s dark, cloudy and wet.

January 2, 2023

We don’t mind if people want to post off topic stuff in the Model thread. It’ll just mean you’ll end up in this lovely, dark, room with bars on it…

Wouldn’t also mind a lengthier drier, bright, spell at the moment with High Pressure, as frequent dull, gloomy, weather does get very depressing and makes Spring seem so desirable.

January 2, 2023

1 hour ago, Stuie W said:

Blimey am I in the right forum?

Do feel as though things have been recently drifting off topic a bit. Some of the latest posts being more at home in the Winter chat, moans and ramp thread:

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98050-winter-2022-moans-ramps-chat/

If you’re a cold weather fan, I’ll take down your snow shield if you stay (or get back) on topic. And if you hate the cold and snow, I’ll promise to leave your snow shield alone (again, if you ensure to keep your post on topic). Cheers everyone.

January 2, 2023

2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

I'm going to copy over my pretty much non-biased (hopefully) texted forecast long-term to one of my friends...

Firstly, we have the Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) which is the amount of torque or rotational force in the atmosphere… Positive AAM (+VE means positive…

We do for sure have some incredible model output and chart analyser’s in here. The knowledge by some is just out of this world! (Although I appreciate all the posts people do in here no matter how big, small, technical, non-technical they are).

If you were to write a book about the weather, and/or some kind of guide to the models, I bet it would get sold out faster than a flash of lightning.

January 1, 2023

32 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12z Vs 18z ..couldn’t be more different, finger in air time

While it’s far into the dreamland, it’s literally gone from a Scandinavian High to a Scandinavian trough!

What I think all the cold weather fans should do is track down the shrink ray in Despicable Me, point it at both the European High and Atlantic Lows. Then hopefully the Atlantic Lows will be too feeble to fight the modest Scandinavian High and just take a trip into mainland Europe drawing Polar Express weather towards the UK.

January 1, 2023

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Id suggest that Polar Maritime incursions are likely to increase after next weekend as the mean upper trough drifts to our Northeast. And note the 528 DAM contour touches Northern Scotland throughout these runs, a Northwesterly between systems would see that extend further South at times. To me, this smacks of early 1984 when a run of PM air produced a lot of temporary snow from showers mainly for the North and West. Some very large accumulations over parts of the northwest were realised. Overall, these charts to me suggest a very mobile, unsettled spell becoming colder unsettled.

I see where you’re coming from mushy - the upper flow on that 8 to 14 day chart for the UK turning more from the North-West direction, which does give the impression of increasing influence of chillier conditions from Polar Maritime flows. So certainly a chance for a more wintry flavour to the weather, especially for North and Western parts.

Admittedly, I probably wouldn’t have paid much attention to the fact that the 528 Dam contour line sat close/over the Northern part of Scotland on the runs. Have to bear something like that in mind next time when looking at the charts.

January 1, 2023

Noticed there were an odd few concerned about the thread going widely off topic from the Happy New Year messages in here over the last 12 or so hours. In general circumstances, off topic posts would be moved or terminated - the rules to keep things broadly on topic in the thread would apply.

It’s just it was approaching and reaching the start of the New Year, let alone it still being the Christmas period. Allowing people to wish everyone a Happy New Year in here (same when we let everyone wish others a Merry Christmas or Happy Easter), was for a bit of light hearted fun. And I think it would have removed any sense of spirit if we were to be tough on those who did the Christmas and New Years messages on the model thread. Plus, this wouldn’t be the only thread it happens on (similar sort of messages in the regional weather chat threads, for example).

You would probably also find it’s the same on some of the busy/main threads on other forums from other sites, where moderators or admins might temporary relax the rules in those threads for people to wish others a Merry Christmas and/or Happy New Year in there.

It might make the relevant information some like to look for on these threads, even at this time of year, more difficult. Though is not something that happens everyday (unless it was Christmas and New Year’s Day everyday, although I guess we wouldn’t permit Christmas and New Year’s Day messages flooding this thread every day ).

Just my personal opinion anyway, but moderation as I think Eagle Eye brought up in the past can be a subjective role and not always easy to please everyone.

Gonna now quickly add something model related before someone gets thrown behind bars… The 6 to 10 day 500mb anomaly NOAA chart keeps to a Westerly, Atlantic, pattern for the UK:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Upper flow over the UK from the West with lowest heights over Southern Iceland. Chart does still exhibit some modest heights over the Arctic area extending South into North-Eastern parts of Scandinavia. Heights not significantly above average to suggested proper upper Arctic heights, but some weak heights in that area possible at times, which may put some pressure on Atlantic Low Pressure. Not enough at the moment I feel to alter the pattern much for the UK. Doesn’t overall scream cold or snowy for the UK (away from probably Northern high ground/hills). At least for this 6 to 10 day period, best that could be hoped for is some chilly Polar Maritime type flows from the West or North-West at times.

January 1, 2023

56 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Likewise,...we don't want to upset @DiagonalRedLine,he will put us in jail with no signal

Well… there’s a lot of off topic posts tonight - though no point throwing anyone in prison from here as there would be too many people to fit in.

Is all fine being that it is the New Year We’ll surely let you all off for the New Year messages, they are very sweet And does show what a nice site this is. I pray that 2023 dazzles us with delight! Same with the models; delight us with some smashing weather! In the case of Winter, for one person, that could be 50cm of snow. For another, an extremely mild, dry, day with temperatures up to 18*C.

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