londonblizzard

BBC going for a 43C for tuesday in cambridge now….?!

GFS 12Z on monday with a slightly more widespread 40C than the 6Z

Does anyone know which model in July 2019 was closest to simulating the 38.7C max in the preceding 24 hours?

So that's very good GEFS support for a widespread 40C breach, as well as decent cross-model support, just 4/5 days out... Surely this has now surpassed "30% chance of UK record being broken". I'd be shocked if a met o red warning + level 4 national emergency heat warning are not imminent .

GFS 0Z is a plume downgrade. Despite that, 40C still clipping the kent coast:

If 44C is still forecast a few days out i'm almost certain Met O would state a level 4 national emergency - not sure what government protocols kick in at that point (e.g. if transport pre-emptively stops for a few days?) But if electricity cuts out because of melting infrastructure that's a massive disaster as suddenly theres no cooling fans and air conditioning etc

GPS op the top of the bunch for next sunday. Uppers at almost 27. unthinkable.

midnight runs be like

Right so the GFS 0Z goes for the 'no cold spell whatsoever' option. (Other than a v. brief incursion for the NE and Scotland)

Has anyone ever seen a chart like that before? Looks strange to me

Uppers finally sink down for the south on the 28th

Looks like a GFS upgrade. The low is further south

-6.5 mean for LONDON on the 29th

You're looking just about ok up there, but unfortunately widespread christmas day rain for many still on the 0Z

(just for fun) member 29 keeping the christmas day dream alive

Highly expect to see further south corrections appearing in some runs over the next few days. Whether that'll be what we end up with is a different matter!

light snow shower in NE london

Although only a minimum of -2.8, nice to see a surprise dusting of snow here, and still very very fine snow falling. Can tell the ground is the hardest it's been all week as snow has settled in more places than any other time this week.

Yes this makes sense. Was just describing that it seems like it's more a case of that we are unlucky this time (due to what you've described), rather than this being particularly representative of what you might usually expect from a similar -12 easterly in early feb.

The last few days of weather have felt more like what would have happened if some of the worse model runs from last week came in to fruition. But we ended up getting -11/-12 uppers, low dew points and ice days, and a fairly strong easterly, and most of our region somehow ends up getting dandruff precipitation, or some temporary more substantial snow which immediately starts melting/ disappearing. A lot of my most memorable snow events in the past have been in feb though, so i don't really think the end result from the last few days is very typical from what these synoptics would often deliver during feb. Also don't forget a lot of the major historical events happening in feb..., like feb 1991, or 1947 which i think was most severe in feb.

It's actually somehow snowing and sunny where i am right now. Really not going to help with keeping temperatures down. Heavier precipitation is the best we can hope for for overcoming these problems.

Intensification off the coast in the last 20 minutes. HIghest proportion of green i've seen so far today. Could mean the snow making more of a way inland without breaking up so early.

I'm inbetween 2 streamers, classic! Hoping for a subtle wind direction change

Moderate size snow flakes in NE london. Heaviest ive seen this week so far!

Anyone have a clue if the same problems with snow not accumulating is going to happen today too?