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londonblizzard

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Everything posted by londonblizzard

  1. londonblizzard
    Movement in the right direction but cold uppers still nowhere to be seen on the GFS 12Z other than Scotland and the far north of England
  2. londonblizzard
    Pretty sure the coldest uppers with feb/march 2018 were pushed back until the wednesday, when originally it was going to be the monday?
  3. londonblizzard
    If all the models now correct to the GFS it'll obviously be very disappointing, but wow that model will certainly have gone up in cred. It's make or break over the next few runs.
  4. londonblizzard
    No question that the 6z GEFS set is a downgrade compared to the dizzying heights of the 0z and 18z - both in terms of the mean and the number of members going very cold (-13 to -15 850s). Plenty of good cold options in there still though so no reason for despair
  5. londonblizzard
    Well very good full ensemble set for London. Still some members going for no cold spell at all. My nerves will be settled once that 850 mean gets into that cluster under -10, and we're arguing about whether it's only going to be -8 or potentially 2018 BFTE levels of -13 to -15.
  6. londonblizzard
    Just for fun, and a bit of a side note since BFTE dates were in deep FI at this point, but this is the GEFS ensemble immediately after the SSW just over 2 weeks before the BFTE started. . Only 1 run there (the -15 coldest outlier after 27th feb) resembles what would actually happen.
  7. londonblizzard
    My memory of the lead up to the 2018 beast from the east was that the GFS was the latest to latch on to it (with ECM etc showing it first). Almost showing zero cold spell, and then over the course of 2 runs suddenly showing -15 uppers. I want someone to correct me if i'm wrong about this though? Edit: I think what i'm talking about played out on the prior weekend of the 24th feb. Then from this point onwards it was pretty consistent including cross model.
  8. londonblizzard
    I count an impressive 19 members which breach the -10 850 mark at some point between the 6th and 8th feb for london. Pretty sure this is the highest yet, despite the mean being comparable to the last several runs.
  9. londonblizzard
  10. londonblizzard
    Should be a good GEFS set! The mean already dropping to -8 for London
  11. londonblizzard
    After being the most outrageously mild ensemble member the entire way through, number 7 takes a 22°C dive to -15 over 2 days on the 11 feb
  12. londonblizzard
    Good signs, but really hoping to push this mean down over the coming few days! First week of January had -7 uppers and an east wind in the south east, and it was cloudy with drizzle!
  13. londonblizzard
    Best 850 mean of the entire winter so far at around day 9. It gets under -7 for London now
  14. londonblizzard
    GEFS looks like it's coming to the rescue
  15. londonblizzard
  16. londonblizzard
    I take this one, cheers.
  17. londonblizzard
    GEFS 850s mean for 6th Feb now down to -6 for London. Thats Progress from -4/ -5 for the last several runs.
  18. londonblizzard
    West is best. Accumulation precip map showing who has had the most snow 2cm at best in NE london
  19. londonblizzard
    Temp now 0.0C in NE london. Hurry up
  20. londonblizzard
    And we're now just breaching the M25. Not concerned about it stalling too early any longer
  21. londonblizzard
    Apparent north and east extent of snow upgrade from met o
  22. londonblizzard
    Yep, this thing is slooow. Hope it's not already stalling
  23. londonblizzard
    Well, latest bbc graphic on tv forecast for london itself is pretty pessimistic to say the least - a thin band of mostly rain as it hits london. Couldnt be more different than met o's 2 hours of heavy snow and many more hours of light snow. I know who i want to be right!
  24. londonblizzard
    -12/-13 uppers across england as early as this saturday according to ensemble member 30
  25. londonblizzard
    Dusting settled on some grass and colder surfaces in NE london. Alternating snow and sleety mix
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