londonblizzard

Gonna need bigger flakes to get anything resembling an even dusting or covering at this temperature

Moderate snow in NE london right now. Attempting to settle with bigger flakes but having a hard time

my god if the intensity doesn't reduce, and it does indeed fall as snow with temps staying down...

Surprising how much snow is expected considering how bad the uppers are forecast to be, with positive surface temps and dew points too. Someone more knowledgable will be able to explain... Reminds me a bit of the unexpected snow on 10th Dec 2017 in that respect, except that wasn't even really forecasted.

Looks like the only difference between met office's yellow and amber warning zones is the 'likelihood'. Both have same 'impact' and talk of 1 - 3 cm widely and up to 5 - 10 cm in places. So theres a chance even south of london could come off well.

latest met office video forecast has snow on saturday morning for much of london and the northern side of our region

now it's over me. pure rain

Actually a little intensification of the precip north of london over the home counties as it's making its way down towards London. For londoners, could the timing of temperatures also lowering poooossibly favour some of this turning to snow by the time it gets to us? ramp over

Full 0z vs 06z ensembles, side by side, same axes. Definite improvement on mean and spread, and a couple of sub -15 options in there.

Looking good. Netweather has the most visually readable GEFS ensembles graph, but when are they going to start showing the full 30-set not just 20?

Can confirm there was some snizzle not long ago here in north east london

Slightly colder uppers for next week's easterly in the 0z. Things then get pretty ridic :

beast from the west?

Great charts, especially the sheer duration of the cold spell, but upper temps certainly have room for improvement (speaking as a londoner that generally needs it a bit colder than everyone else)

best set yet for 25th onwards, according to my eyes anyway.

15 November VS 15 March. Which date would people say on average has a better chance of getting some reasonable snow?

The snow thaw in my area was about 5 or 6 cm a day from the original 15 on the Wednesday. I remember seeing some still around on the saturday.

My area was in the red, some places to the east of me look like they got even more with reports of up to 20cm according to the article. Looks pretty defined limits to the heaviest precipitation areas, which explains why many people remember barely anything.

Late reply, but was trying to recall this event and stumbled across this post. Just to add, I was in Junior school at the time in Walthamstow (NE London) and was probably the most impressive snowfall of my entire childhood. Very similar timeline in my memory - snow started falling on my way in to school at about 8.30 in the morning and then soon became a thick white-out (I remember not being able to see anything else other than snow looking outside the window), stopping some time in the afternoon. I remember a still wind....? and the depth building to about 15 - 16 cm. Still to this day i'm not sure I have seen such thick snowfall in London, although I haven't been sure if my recollection of this as a kid has exaggerated the severity. Maybe you have some insight about how this one compares to some others @danm? Certainly it would be February 2009 until I saw anything similar again (all TfL buses cancelled lol), and not sure it's been repeated properly since then? Despite the extremity of the 2010 cold spells and March 2018, London itself (at least zone 4 inwards) never really got anything upwards of 8 - 10 cm.

looks like london itself will be getting some thunderstorms very soon, even if it misses out from the main storms further west

Assuming the main scattering of thunderstorms over the channel now continues in the same trajectory, east sussex, mid and western side of kent ,and eastern side of london looks to be in the firing line

Fair enough. We'll just have to wait for the absolute perfect scenario then i guess (which i accept is possible may never happen)

I don't want to sound naive but surely it's simple - We saw 38 degree temps today when cloud was a factor. If the cloud stayed off then it probably would have got to 39 and possibly 40. Hence those kind of numbers are not impossible for the UK.

Did the Arpege not correct back down to more like 38 in its more recent output?