[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Well bit of a let down so far. Moving very slowly, can't see any heavy stuff reaching me, and I'm supposedly in the amber area.   Heavier stuff was ment to arrive by 10am, which meant its probably not going to arrive, or break up before it does I expect.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Well this is a big supprise, its snowing, lightly anyway.   

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

All this talk of downgrades , I’m sorry I’m just not seeing one .  Here is euro 4 out to the end . 

Can you find me any other hi res that shows that kind of widespread ppn?  As I can't...

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

The cold is getting almighty close....

Yes, I did notice on one of the hi res models showing some early ppn around 2am for our region which was showing as snow as today's rain clears, not sure if there would be enough to settle though..

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

No, look at this

 

Err, yes there has.  Unless you live in Kent. No frontal snow now for Norfolk and Suffolk according to the hi res models.  So yet another carrot chasing affair as expected. Thought this would happen right at the end. Not counting on any showers as I live in the snowless triangle. Yawn.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Anyone got the latest ukv charts?  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Well the met app was showing 4hrs of heavy snow for Sunday this morning, then it changed to just 1hr heavy snow Sunday!   Now it shows 11hrs of heavy snow, plus 4hrs heavy on Monday too!   I'm ALMOST starting to believe I might get a couple of inches here in north Suffolk!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Hi, anyone mind posting the ukv precip charts for tomorrow?    Thanks...

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

I'm going for 55cm for the whole of the UK accept a circle of green around my village.  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, lawrenk said:

My money’s on wherever “Mr Pessimistic” lives. I just know it’s gonna happen.

God I hope your right. According to all the models I'm in a pretty good place for a few inches or so, just won't believe it till I see it.  I live in the famous no snow triangle!.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

This should cheer most up anyway

UKMO Snow depths to 6am Monday Morning shows a good few inches even way far to the West and South West of London - Jackpot zone looks to be around 10 Inches on the North Downs and parts of Suffolk and Norfolk

 

 

 

are those charts more reliable than the the hi res ones posted above?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

11 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Had a good week, Mr Pessimistic?

Yes, excellent thanks, you?  (I won the lottery yesterday - but not interested in that, just want some snow.)

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ICON places the low pressure a good deal SE on the 12z, as does the ARPEGE.

This does allow a swifter movement towards true ENE winds away from NE that they were previously showing. Should this happen it may push the showers further inland during Sunday (especially later on Sunday) as well as obviously make a Thames streamer kick up rather than a mid Kent streamer on Sunday.

So whilst it is worse for the west of the region for Sunday morning, it may end up being made up for by a deeper penetration of snow showers, especially downstream from the Thames.

Meaning that Norfolk and Suffolk after being predicted to have the most snow all week (yet again), will actually end up with absolutely nothing as we will be in the snowless zone between the two areas of ppn, yet again! If that happens, I will personally KILL the weather.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

12z Icon shows ppn in about the same location as 12z ukv, so not over just yet. But I fear it will be by this time tomorrow, a south east correction is inevitable!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I suspect it's a combination of wind convergence between NE winds and SE winds and vorticity wrapping around the low on near continent creating lift of moist air rather than the fronts generating the continuous snow. 

Wind charts below at different levels

That's great, thanks for the reply. Things are never simple!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

It is Valid at midday Sunday but which point it has probably started to sink back south.. But judging by how tight the isobars are showers or PPN will be packing in from the East

Thanks, makes sense..  Does anyone have a link to where met fax charts can be viewed?   

Thanks...

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

24 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The latest FAX shows the fronts further east over Europe, so not sure if areas to the west of Kent are likely to get anything at all ?

Anyone knowledgeable care to comment on this?  It looked the same on yesterdays 72hr fax chart..  Looks too far away to affect anyone?...

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

As Completely missed out in 2010, still don't believe imby will get a dumping. Expecting a southward shift by tomorrow.  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Looks like an area between Gravesend East to Sittingbourne and SW to Maidstone and Tonbridge and parts of Essex will be the sweetspot in the SE based upon that, not many posters in here from Norfolk and Suffolk they must also be delighted after 3 barren snowless years

I'm in north suffolk! Preying it doesn't shift any more south or east. Expected big downgrades this morning from imby, but seems OK. Prob change again tomorrow though.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Looks to me like another Kent clipper, as usual, heading more south on each run.  So maybe a few snow flurries in the east before the low pulls away, then dry unless living north of the wash. Then probably milder later in the week.  Way over hyped on the mod thread, as usual.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Hi, does anyone have a link to ecm ppn charts?, can't get them on metecioel, if they exist?    Thanks.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

43 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

No saggy bottoms here...

 

After the winds beer easterly that low over Europe starts to bend the winds more north easterly so showers will still be piling into the east. Interestingly the UKMO offer little modification of the deep cold over the south that has popped up in other models.

Presumably due to the short sea track, those showers will not be particularly heavy though?...   Met only suggest light snow showers in the east..

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

23 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree with this, my thoughts exactly, long way off still but on this 06Z, I expect very little snow here on Sunday

Thats what happened here in Suffolk in 2010, got 1cm when everywhere else got pasted. I expect the same thing to happen again, it'll continue to move south leaving Suffolk in the dry zone. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Hi, anyone got any snow depth charts for Norfolk and Suffolk for Sunday/Monday?     Thanks....!

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

Your thoughts are for 2 days of snow for the east anglia region ? The regional forecast earlier (not that I take them as gospel) was suggesting 4 days. Do you think that is unlikely ? In an easterly, is it possible for convective snow showers from the north sea for more than a couple of days ?     

No chance that east Anglia will get hammered. Many times we are forecast as being in the best place, but snow avoids ea like the plague. Easterlies funnel around it, sliders too far south, occasionally in a direct northerly we may get 2"..  The setup shown looks good, but something will mess it up, it always does.  And that's being optimistic